Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will pass through northern and central Oklahoma
tonight before exiting mid-morning Monday. Generally, MVFR
ceilings can be expected before lifting Monday afternoon.
Thunderstorms return to northwestern Oklahoma after 070000 as they
move east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Deep, moist convection has commenced across the high plains of KS,
OK, and TX this afternoon along a dryline. Most of the CAMs have
suggested this activity through their cycles, and the environment
just ahead of them will support supercells. The aforementioned is
especially true over the eastern panhandles and extreme western OK
before 03Z. Steep mid level lapse rates are also present, which
could result in a large hail threat across this region. In
addition, if a discrete cell can make it into western north
TX/southwestern OK this evening, tornado potential is certainly
not zero. As the storms progress eastward overnight into less
favorable conditions, they will begin to weaken. At least low
chance PoPs have been included through the overnight into early
tomorrow morning. Central to south central OK will have the best
chance of receiving rainfall amounts exceeding one quarter of an
inch.

For tomorrow, Monday, the dryline is expected near the same
region, with a cold front moving across KS during the afternoon.
Thunderstorms will develop along these two boundaries before 00Z.
Coverage will likely be higher tomorrow than today as a mid to
upper level shortwave trough enhances broad lift over the region.
Severe storms are again expected through Monday night, with the
main threats of damaging hail and wind gusts. Again, these storms
will progress eastward over our FA during the evening and early
morning hours Tue.

The main feature this forecast period will be a opening mid to upper
trough moving over the four corners region Tue afternoon and
evening. The surface pattern will change very little during Tue,
although the NAM suggests the cold front will remain closer to the
KS/OK border. Regardless, as height falls commence late in the
day moist convection should bloom from NW OK through western north
TX. Severe weather will again be a concern, especially across
western OK before 06Z, with plenty of deep layer shear in place
along with steep mid level lapse rates. The large hail threat Tue
may then be accompanied by a wind threat shifting eastward over
central and northern OK during the overnight hours Tue into Wed
morning. The upper level trough is expected to lift northeastward
into central KS by Thu 00Z as shower and thunderstorm activity
exits our eastern zones early in the day. If conditions can
rebound behind the first round of convection early Wed, the threat
of severe weather may commence again Wed afternoon along a
dryline likely draped somewhere across central OK. However, a
dryslot and limited height falls may limit overall coverage late
in the day Wed, although discrete cells may be more likely in this
scenario.

Much colder and drier conditions are expected behind the front Thu
through next weekend. Low 60s for high temps Thu will be common
north of I-40, with some high 30s trying to creep into northwestern
OK for lows Friday morning. The next chance of rain will
accompany southern stream shortwave trough late Fri through early
Saturday morning. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  79  63  76 /  50  10  40  20
Hobart OK         60  80  63  76 /  50  10  40  20
Wichita Falls TX  63  82  65  78 /  30  10  40  20
Gage OK           58  83  59  78 /  50  20  60  30
Ponca City OK     60  78  63  77 /  50  30  50  40
Durant OK         63  82  63  77 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/09/08

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-070430-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1120 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered strong to severe storms will continue generally eastward
overnight across northern and central Oklahoma through about 4 AM.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing quarter to golf
ball size hail and 60 to 70 mph wind gusts. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Monday, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across
northern and northwestern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a cold front Monday afternoon across southern
Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. These storms will then move south
and southeast across the northern half of Oklahoma. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms.

An approaching storm system will bring more widespread severe
weather chances to Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday and
Wednesday. All severe weather hazards will be possible.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms late Friday into
Saturday.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday, which could
lead to localized flash flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

OKZ016-022-023-060430-
Washita OK-Caddo OK-Custer OK-
1055 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Washita...northwestern
Caddo and southern Custer Counties Until 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1054 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Clinton,
moving east at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 9921 3558 9863 3555 9863 3555 9858
      3530 9860 3539 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 281DEG 31KT 3549 9898

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1107 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     KREMLIN                 36.55N 97.83W
05/05/2019  E65 MPH          GARFIELD           OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1117 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

OKZ018-019-060445-
Kingfisher OK-Logan OK-
1117 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Kingfisher and
southwestern Logan Counties Until 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1116 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Cashion, moving east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Guthrie, Crescent, Cashion, Cedar Valley, Cimarron City, Navina and
Seward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 9735 3599 9735 3575 9731 3576 9775
      3593 9778 3602 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 262DEG 15KT 3586 9768

Mahale

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