Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
421 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Previous forecast is on track and few changes were made.
Strengthening low level jet and low-level theta-e surge initially
resulted a few fairly intense storms with small hail near OKC that
moved northeast. Subsequent continued warm/moist advection and
increased ascent from strong trough approaching has resulted in a
large area of rain that has filled in across this area, with
embedded thunderstorms. 88D VWP confirm strengthening low level
jet that will become quite impressive through early morning. It's
possible that some of the weak convective elements could help
transport higher/near-severe gusts to the ground as far north as
I-40 for the next few hours, but model soundings show saturated
low-levels that are fairly stable with no 0-3-km CAPE. The best
chance for a severe gust will be over south-central Oklahoma
through the pre-dawn hours on the northern end of the more intense
portion of the line now moving through. We'll also need to watch
for the possibility of an area of strong southwesterly winds
developing immediately behind the line of convection.

All precipitation should move east of the area by late morning and
as intense anomalous cyclone deepens to our northwest and
heating/mixing increase, transport of very strong wind gusts are
expected. No change to the High Wind Warning or Wind Advisory.
Mean mixed layer winds of 50-55 knots are mostly confined to
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. This is where we have
greatest confidence in high wind, but even further east into
central Oklahoma, some locations are expected to gust over 60 mph.

Strong northwesterly winds are possible into Thursday. Uneventful
weather is expected once winds settle down late Thursday. Slightly
cooler than normal temperatures will gradually warm to near or
slightly above normal into the upcoming weekend and early next
week.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds and minimum RH values as low as 25-30 percent in
western Oklahoma and western north Texas will will drive RFTI
values to around 3-4. Fuels are wet from overnight rains, but
magnitude of wind combined with low RH necessitates issuance of a
Fire Danger Statement for this area, despite ERCs likely now well
below the 50th percentile. Elevated fire weather conditions are
again possible Thursday as winds will continue, albeit not as
strong as today.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  41  53  31 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         68  38  54  29 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  43  58  32 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  35  48  24 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  41  48  31 / 100  10  10  10
Durant OK         72  48  60  34 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for OKZ004>030-033>039-044.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ031-032-040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday
     for TXZ083>089.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     TXZ090.

&&

50/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
732 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-140045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
732 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms and heavy rain...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight
across far southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, or areas
south of an Altus to Wichita Falls line. A Marginal Risk is
located along and south of a line from Arnett to Chickasha to
Ardmore.

Around midnight, a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is
expected into far western Oklahoma and north Texas. The band
of thunderstorms will move quickly to the east and should
be confined to eastern Oklahoma, by mid morning Wednesday.
Damaging wind gusts are possible within this band of rain,
especially within the risk areas. The storms will also be
capable of producing localized flooding.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
western north Texas and southern Oklahoma should prepare for
severe weather operations after midnight.

.Dense Fog...
Areas of dense fog will occur across portions of western Oklahoma
and western north Texas this evening. Visibility at times will
drop to 1/4 mile of less. Visibility will improve late this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Wind...
Very strong winds are possible on Wednesday. Wind gusts to 60 mph
could occur across much of the area. A High Wind Warning is in
effect for roughly the western half of Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

.Fire Weather...
Strong southwest to west winds and low relative humidity Wednesday
afternoon may lead to elevated fire weather conditions across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
351 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

OKZ023-027-038-039-044>046-050-TXZ090-130915-
Love OK-Grady OK-Cotton OK-Stephens OK-Carter OK-Caddo OK-
Comanche OK-Jefferson OK-Clay TX-
351 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Love...southwestern
Grady...Cotton...western Stephens...southwestern Carter...south
central Caddo...Comanche...Jefferson and northeastern Clay Counties
Until 415 AM CDT....

AT 350 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles southeast of Manitou to 12 miles south of Bluegrove, moving
northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 9881 3503 9828 3400 9741 3390 9755
      3390 9759 3392 9760 3395 9759 3399 9767
      3394 9773 3393 9776 3392 9776 3392 9778
      3389 9778 3390 9780 3386 9783 3385 9787
      3389 9798 3357 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 212DEG 46KT 3447 9894 3350 9823

Zwink

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
417 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

OKZ016-017-022-023-035-038-130945-
Kiowa OK-Washita OK-Caddo OK-Custer OK-Comanche OK-Blaine OK-
417 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Kiowa...eastern
Washita...Caddo...southeastern Custer...north central Comanche and
southwestern Blaine Counties Until 445 AM CDT....

AT 416 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
6 miles southeast of Custer City to 4 miles northeast of Meers,
moving northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 9850 3506 9817 3477 9862 3561 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 240DEG 36KT 3560 9880 3483 9853

Zwink

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
430 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

OKZ046-047-050-051-131000-
Love OK-Carter OK-Johnston OK-Marshall OK-
430 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Love...southeastern
Carter...southwestern Johnston and northwestern Marshall Counties
Until 500 AM CDT....

AT 428 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Thackerville,
moving northeast at 70 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 9715 3380 9721 3384 9717 3389 9718
      3390 9723 3386 9727 3387 9727 3433 9685
      3415 9661 3391 9689 3396 9692 3394 9698
      3395 9699 3388 9699 3384 9704 3386 9707
      3385 9709 3382 9705 3380 9709 3375 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0928Z 220DEG 60KT 3380 9721

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