Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.AVIATION...
TAFs 0318/0418...

Widely scattered showers and storms are expected to form during
the afternoon but will not mention in TAFs because of coverage
and local predictability. VFR conditions should prevail with a
southerly wind. Storms that form to the west this afternoon, may
impact western Oklahoma after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A small area of showers/storms has developed across north central
Oklahoma this morning in advance of remnant cloud cover/MCV. This
area of precipitation will continue to move east/northeast through
the early afternoon. Other storms that formed across south central
Oklahoma have mainly moved east. For the afternoon, expect heating
will result in at least widely scattered showers and storms. A few
strong storms are possible with strong wind gusts and heavy
rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
Scattered showers will affect KSPS this morning and may affect
KPNC for a little bit, although the showers in northern Oklahoma
are weakening. We will likely see scattered showers and storms
later this afternoon in the eastern part of the area, and
additional storms moving in from the west early Tuesday morning.
We have put tempo groups or prob30s at the locations and times
were confidence is the highest, but showers and storms will
certainly be possible at the other locations as well. With the
exception of near showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are
generally expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is a line of showers with embedded storms
stretching from northwest Oklahoma down through western north
Texas. While these storms have generally weakened as they have
moved away from the influence of the lower level jet situated over
the Texas Panhandle, these storms continue to be monitored for
occasional upticks in intensity. The big question will be if they
maintain their intensity until sunrise. If these storms continue
into the morning, there is some concern of intensification with
the reintroduction of solar heating. If the storms dissipate, the
remnants of the MCV circulation may act as concentration point for
scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Short range models have
had somewhat of a difficult time as of late getting a good handle
on storms in the area, and this looks like it could be a
continuing trend today.

As the upper level cyclone moves eastward through the week, the
upper level ridge becomes positioned over the southeastern United
States, which leads to an all too familiar setup and enhances
moisture advection into the region. Multiple shortwaves are
generated and move through the area in advance of the upper level
cyclone, and these periods of upper level support combined with
the increased moisture advection into the area will provide
continuous chances of precipitation throughout the week. Thursday
into Friday morning appears to be the greatest chance for
precipitation when the upper level low pressure cyclone begins
it's northern movement over the OK/TX Panhandles and is expected
to produce the strongest upper level diffluence for central
Oklahoma corridor. Due to the ample amount of moisture that will
be available along with the antecedent conditions, flooding will
be a major concern as this low moves through.

As the upper level cyclone exits to the northeast, we will see a
brief reprieve in precipitation chances on Saturday. Surface
moisture advection, however, is expected to persist and bring in
>70F surface dewpoints into the area. A surface low in the wake of
the exiting upper level cyclone is expected to bring a cold front
and precipitation chances through early next week, although the
timing and intensity is a bit uncertain as of this forecast.

Zwink

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  86  67  82 /  30  40  30  50
Hobart OK         68  84  67  82 /  40  40  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  71  86  70  83 /  30  40  50  60
Gage OK           64  83  62  81 /  40  30  40  50
Ponca City OK     68  85  67  82 /  40  40  20  60
Durant OK         71  88  71  83 /  30  20  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1148 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...
Latest satellite imagery shows some clearing over western and
southwestern OK with overcast skies over central OK and more
impressive cumulonimbus clouds over eastern Oklahoma. With a
moderately unstable and moist atmosphere in place, additional
daytime heating may lead to isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are then possible over western Oklahoma and
western north Texas after midnight as storms move in from the high
plains.

The primary hazards will be wind gusts to 60 mph and locally heavy
rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms remain possible through Friday. The highest chance for
widespread thunderstorms begins on Wednesday and is forecast to
persist through early Friday. After Friday, the next chance for
thunderstorms is Saturday night into Sunday.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Heavy rainfall will be possible through the period, especially
Wednesday into Friday morning. Heavy rainfall through this period
may lead to flooding for some locations.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

JT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
141 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ032-043-048-031915-
Coal OK-Atoka OK-Hughes OK-
141 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Coal...Atoka and south central
Hughes Counties Until 215 PM CDT...

AT 135 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorms were located near Lehigh,
Tushka, Stringtown and Daisy.  The storms were moving northeast at
20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

LAT...LON 3451 9571 3451 9578 3426 9578 3417 9580
      3426 9640 3485 9630 3481 9609 3468 9609
      3468 9589 3459 9588 3459 9569
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 220DEG 18KT 3442 9621

SIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
235 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ043-047-048-052-032000-
Coal OK-Atoka OK-Johnston OK-Bryan OK-
235 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Coal...Atoka...east
central Johnston and north central Bryan Counties Until 300 PM CDT...

AT 232 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Coleman,
moving northeast at 20 MPH. Other strong storms were located near
McGee Creek Lake and Caney.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

LAT...LON 3451 9568 3451 9578 3422 9578 3418 9579
      3414 9642 3430 9653 3468 9603 3465 9588
      3459 9588 3459 9567 3452 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 239DEG 16KT 3426 9640

SIX