Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.AVIATION...
A line of storms currently stretching from north central Oklahoma
down through far southwest Oklahoma is expected to continue into
the evening, gradually moving southeastward. Included tempos at
KLAW, KOKC, and KOUN, though there is still some uncertainty as to
whether or not storms will make it that far south (chances for
KSPS are too low for mention in TAF). MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings
are expected to set in again in the morning before lifting a bit
tomorrow afternoon.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to form, mainly along
and north of a surface front. Part of the boundary has shifted
northward this morning where instability is increasing and
updrafts are more vigorous. As heating continues through the
afternoon, more numerous storms will develop, especially from west
central to north central Oklahoma. Although severe storms will be
possible, perhaps the greater risk will be heavy rainfall and
flash flooding. It is certainly possible that another 3 to 5
inches of rainfall could occur this afternoon into tonight. If
this happens across north central/central Oklahoma, life-
threatening flash flooding will be likely given antecedent
conditions.

There may be an overall decrease in convection late tonight into
Saturday morning as low level winds veer and decrease some.

Convective develop Saturday and Sunday should mainly be over
the higher terrain to our west which will impact parts of western
Oklahoma and northern Oklahoma during the evening and overnight
hours. Coverage may be greater on Sunday as models suggest a more
pronounced wave will approach the southern and central Plains.
Unfortunately, some of the storms over the weekend will produce
heavy rainfall amounts which will likely result in additional
flooding.

There may be a lull in storms on Monday, but another trough will
approach the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Severe storms and more
flooding will be a concern during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  81  67  83 /  60  30  40  20
Hobart OK         68  82  66  83 /  70  30  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  69  86  69  86 /  40  20  30  10
Gage OK           62  81  62  80 /  60  50  60  60
Ponca City OK     69  80  66  84 /  80  30  60  30
Durant OK         70  85  69  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ004>026-033>036.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ083-084.

&&

30/14/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
327 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
327 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.

Location...
The slight risk for severe thunderstorms is generally along and
northwest of Interstate 44. More numerous thunderstorms are
expected across western and northern Oklahoma, especially during
the afternoon and evening hours.

Timing...
through midnight.

Impacts...
Up to golf ball size hail.
60 to 70 mph winds.
Very low tornado risk.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations this afternoon and evening.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Additional rainfall may cause flooding due to saturated soils
across the region and any residual flooding ongoing from rainfall
earlier this week. The highest risk for flooding is across
northern Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday, Sunday and
Tuesday. On Saturday, the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms
is across northwest Oklahoma. On Sunday, the greatest risk is
across western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas. The
risk for severe weather will be across much of the area on
Tuesday.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Flooding will be a continued risk with any additional rainfall
through at least Tuesday of next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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