Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
628 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.AVIATION...
Widely scattered storms will continue into the evening across
north central Oklahoma down through central Oklahoma and western
north Texas. Storms are expected to become more numerous along
the front in northern Oklahoma around midnight before moving off
toward morning. MVFR ceilings will develop across much of the area
as moisture moves in late tonight into the early morning.
Ceilings should lift a little during the day tomorrow. Expectation
is for front to lift north tomorrow morning, bringing a return of
southerly winds to our northern TAF sites.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this
afternoon, mainly along better moisture return over western north
Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Other storms are attempting to
develop over central Oklahoma near Shawnee and Pauls Valley.
Instability and shear will certainly favor supercell structures.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing: golf ball to
baseball sized hail, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes
(perhaps strong). By mid to late evening and overnight, it's
possible that a more concentrated area of storms may impact parts
of north central Oklahoma, which will increase the risk of more
flooding. A flood watch was issued earlier today to address this
possibility.

Late tonight into Thursday, better moisture return will occur over
northern parts of the Texas Panhandle. As a trough/low over the
southwest moves north and northeast Thursday, thunderstorms will
develop along a dryline across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.
Severe storms should move off the dryline and into parts of
western Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon and night. Supercells
will be possible with a risk of large hail and damaging winds, and
perhaps more flooding rainfall.

The center of a mid level ridge over the southeastern United States
may keep parts of eastern and southern Oklahoma relatively dry
Friday through Sunday. Meanwhile, afternoon and evening storms
will form to our west each day and impact western and northern
Oklahoma & western north Texas during the evening and overnight.

Another strong trough may approach the southern Plains early next
week. This would bring a better chance of widespread showers and
storms to a large part of Oklahoma and north Texas. Flooding and
severe weather is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  83  70  83 /  40  20  20  20
Hobart OK         70  81  69  82 /  10  30  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  86  71  86 /  10  10  20  20
Gage OK           66  78  63  76 /  30  40  60  60
Ponca City OK     67  82  70  81 /  70  40  30  50
Durant OK         73  86  71  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>030.

TX...None.
&&

30/14/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-232245-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
543 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
central and north central Oklahoma. There is also a slight risk
of severe thunderstorms across most of southwest and central
Oklahoma and a small portion of western north Texas.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
evening. Any storms that develop will be in an environment
favorable for supercells. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing golf ball to baseball sized hail, damaging winds to 70
mph, and tornadoes. By mid to late evening, most of the storms
that form will be confined to northern Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Additional rainfall may cause flooding due to extremely saturated
soils across the region and any residual flooding ongoing from
rainfall earlier this week.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
western north Texas, southern, central, and northern Oklahoma
should prepare for severe weather operations Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of northern
and western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday as well as
Friday across parts of northern Oklahoma. The most likely time
for severe storms on Thursday will be during the evening and
overnight.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
752 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HAIL             BURKBURNETT             34.09N 98.56W
05/22/2019  E1.00 INCH       WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             3 SW BURKBURNETT        34.06N 98.60W
05/22/2019  E1.50 INCH       WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
802 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

OKZ023-024-230130-
Canadian OK-Caddo OK-
802 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Canadian and central
Caddo Counties Until 830 PM CDT...

AT 802 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of Fort
Cobb, moving north at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Anadarko, Hinton, Binger, Fort Cobb, Gracemont, Lookeba, Cogar,
Albert, Fort Cobb Reservoir and Cedar Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 9843 3545 9809 3530 9809 3497 9825
      3501 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 194DEG 22KT 3510 9834

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
807 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

OKZ019-020-230130-
Payne OK-Logan OK-
807 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR west central Payne and north
central Logan Counties Until 830 PM CDT...

AT 804 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mulhall, moving
northeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Mulhall, Orlando and Lake Carl Blackwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 9734 3600 9744 3616 9738 3616 9711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 203DEG 15KT 3603 9739

BRB