Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
322 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this
afternoon, mainly along better moisture return over western north
Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Other storms are attempting to
develop over central Oklahoma near Shawnee and Pauls Valley.
Instability and shear will certainly favor supercell structures.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing: golf ball to
baseball sized hail, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes
(perhaps strong). By mid to late evening and overnight, it's
possible that a more concentrated area of storms may impact parts
of north central Oklahoma, which will increase the risk of more
flooding. A flood watch was issued earlier today to address this
possibility.

Late tonight into Thursday, better moisture return will occur over
northern parts of the Texas Panhandle. As a trough/low over the
southwest moves north and northeast Thursday, thunderstorms will
develop along a dryline across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.
Severe storms should move off the dryline and into parts of
western Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon and night. Supercells
will be possible with a risk of large hail and damaging winds, and
perhaps more flooding rainfall.

The center of a mid level ridge over the southeastern United States
may keep parts of eastern and southern Oklahoma relatively dry
Friday through Sunday. Meanwhile, afternoon and evening storms
will form to our west each day and impact western and northern
Oklahoma & western north Texas during the evening and overnight.

Another strong trough may approach the southern Plains early next
week. This would bring a better chance of widespread showers and
storms to a large part of Oklahoma and north Texas. Flooding and
severe weather is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  83  70  83 /  40  20  20  20
Hobart OK         70  81  69  82 /  10  30  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  72  86  71  86 /  10  10  20  20
Gage OK           66  78  63  76 /  30  40  60  60
Ponca City OK     67  82  70  81 /  70  40  30  50
Durant OK         73  86  71  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>030.

TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
157 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231900-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
157 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
central and north central Oklahoma. There is also a slight risk
of severe thunderstorms across most of southwest and central
Oklahoma and a small portion of western north Texas.

Moisture return this afternoon and evening may result in widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. If storms develop, they will
be in an environment favorable for supercells. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing golf ball to baseball sized
hail, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes. By mid to late
evening, most of the storms that form will be confined to northern
Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Additional rainfall may cause flooding due to extremely saturated
soils across the region and any residual flooding ongoing from
rainfall earlier this week.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
western north Texas, southern, central, and northern Oklahoma
should prepare for severe weather operations Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of northern
and western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday as well as
Friday across parts of northern Oklahoma. The most likely time
for severe storms on Thursday will be during the evening and
overnight.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
406 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

TXZ088-222130-
Baylor TX-
406 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Baylor County Until 430
PM CDT...

AT 405 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Seymour, moving northeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Seymour, eastern Lake Kemp, Mabelle and Lake Diversion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 9929 3383 9920 3383 9895 3369 9895
      3347 9913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 209DEG 31KT 3357 9918

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
414 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

OKZ035-037-038-222145-
Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Comanche OK-
414 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Kiowa...
northeastern Tillman and northwestern Comanche Counties Until 445 PM
CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Indiahoma, moving north at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Cache, Indiahoma, southwestern Fort Sill, Wichita Mountains Wildlife
Refuge, Mount Scott, Doris Campground and The Visitor Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 9875 3445 9894 3485 9883 3476 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 198DEG 28KT 3449 9881

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
437 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     TORNADO          1 N CROMWELL            35.36N 96.45W
05/22/2019                   SEMINOLE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
447 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

OKZ023-035-038-222215-
Kiowa OK-Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
447 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Kiowa...southwestern
Caddo and northwestern Comanche Counties Until 515 PM CDT...

AT 447 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Cooperton, moving north at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View and Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 9878 3512 9875 3510 9874 3511 9873
      3510 9871 3511 9871 3503 9845 3468 9869
      3471 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 201DEG 27KT 3479 9875

BRB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
517 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

OKZ018-019-222245-
Kingfisher OK-Logan OK-
517 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Kingfisher and northwestern Logan
Counties Until 545 PM CDT...

AT 517 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles northeast of Cimarron City to 5 miles northwest of Okarche,
moving north at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Guthrie, Kingfisher, Hennessey, Crescent, Okarche, Cashion, Dover,
Cedar Valley, Marshall, Mulhall, Cimarron City, Orlando, Loyal and
Lovell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 9735 3599 9735 3586 9744 3572 9800
      3573 9821 3578 9821 3602 9812 3617 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 200DEG 24KT 3592 9754 3579 9803

BRB