Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
236 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather going on this afternoon, so will keep this brief.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should continue into early
evening. Expectation is for convection to consolidate along the
front the evening and then move eastward from there. Severe hail,
winds, and a tornado or two are all threats.

With ample moisture in place, convection may continue overnight
over southeast Oklahoma as the shortwave makes its way out. Will
keep the flood watch going with some slight adjustment (bringing
it south to the border).

General trend is for the models to retreat the front Wednesday
afternoon into northern Oklahoma (with the exception of the NAM).
Models suggest some convection may form in southeast Oklahoma as a
vorticity maximum passes over that area of abundant moisture
tomorrow evening. At the same time a cold front will surge south
from Kansas bringing precipitation chances with it overnight into
Thursday morning.

Synoptic pattern remains active into next week, though details
are a bit fuzzy.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  79  59  69 /  60  30  40  30
Hobart OK         57  81  57  66 /  30  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  64  82  62  75 /  50  40  20  30
Gage OK           51  79  49  65 /  20  10  30  10
Ponca City OK     57  75  58  68 /  50  20  60  30
Durant OK         66  79  63  77 /  80  50  60  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>020-022>030-033>038.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning
     for OKZ045-050>052.

     Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ031-032-039>043-
     046>048.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning
     for TXZ090.

&&

30/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today across
the eastern half of Oklahoma. A slight risk covers the western
half of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Location...
The enhanced risk area is generally along and east of a Stillwater
to Oklahoma City and Duncan line. The slight risk area is
generally west of the enhanced risk to the Oklahoma and Texas
state line.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from now through
Midnight.

Impacts...
Hail up to the size of golf balls.
Damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph.
A few tornadoes possible.
Excessive rainfall with flooding possible.

Discussion...
Scattered to numerous storms are expected to continue through the
afternoon moving east through the evening. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the main threats. For storms that form along or
south of the cold front, there is also a risk for a tornado or two
developing.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the area should prepare for potential severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday mainly
across the eastern half of Oklahoma. A marginal risk covers the
western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. The most likely
time for severe weather will be during the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Thursday through Monday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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