Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Widespread and significant severe weather is beginning across the
forecast area. These storms are working with an environment of high
shear and high instability which will promote the initation and
maintenance of long lived supercells. Extremely large hail, damaging
wind, and tornadoes are expected with these supercells. In addition
these threats and with precipitable water that is in the 75th
percentile, heavy rainfall and widespread flooding is also
anticipated.

A second wave of supercells and severe thunderstorms are expected to
initiate later this evening over northwest Texas and the Texas
panhandle and move eastward. As these move into Oklahoma and Western
North Texas, the storms are expected to undergo upscale development
and form a squall line. Large hail, damaging winds, and flooding
rainfall are expected with this line of storms. Due to the high
shear and the enhancement from the lower level jet, QLCS tornadoes
are possible with this squall line.

Storms are expected to exit the area Tuesday morning, with a
reprieve until Wednesday. Enhanced lower level moisture advection
along with the movement of a strong upper level cyclone into the
Arizona/Utah will result in a chance of precipitation in central
and northwest Oklahoma throughout the next of the week.

Zwink

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX/

DISCUSSION...
The 18z aviation discussion follows...

AVIATION...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue mainly north of the warm
front that is draped across areas just north of I40. For the TAF
sites north of the boundary will prevail -TSRA for much of the valid
period as continued lift occurs to maintain convective development.
For the sites south of the boundary, the atmosphere is expected to
continue to destabilize throughout the afternoon leading to
scattered to numerous thunderstorms impacting the terminals in
the mid-late afternoon and evening hours. There could be a break
or two in the activity, but will prevail a mention of precip for
most of the period to better handle the threat for possible strong
to severe storms impacting the airports. IFR/MVFR ceilings and
visibility will be possible through the period with lowering
visibility and increases in winds possible with the stronger
convection. Will amend TAFs as necessary as activity develops this
afternoon and a higher confidence in timing materializes.

Hampshire/Platt

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  75  59  81 /  80  50   0  20
Hobart OK         60  75  56  83 /  80  10   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  64  78  61  86 /  80  30   0  20
Gage OK           56  74  51  83 /  80  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     64  74  59  82 /  90  60   0  20
Durant OK         65  77  62  84 /  40  80   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

50/50

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
857 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211400-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
857 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a High Risk for severe thunderstorms today into tonight.
Significant and widespread severe weather is expected across
Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Location...
The High Risk is across western north Texas, western Oklahoma,
and central Oklahoma. Outside the High Risk, there is an Enhanced
to Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms.

Timing...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible the entire period with the
most likely time for significant severe weather this afternoon and
evening.

Impacts...
Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected with
the strongest thunderstorms. Strong to violent, potentially long-
track, tornadoes are possible. The greatest risk for tornadoes is
this afternoon and evening. Overnight, a line of thunderstorms
with a continued threat of damaging winds and tornadoes will move
through the entire area.

.Flooding and Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding and flash flooding is likely given the several rounds of
severe thunderstorms with intense rainfall. The risk is
particularly high in central and north central Oklahoma where some
areas will likely receive more than 5 inches. Significant, life-
threatening, flooding will be possible. A flood watch is in effect
until Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the entire area should prepare for severe weather operations
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
After Tuesday, thunderstorms remain in the
forecast into the weekend with a continued risk for severe
thunderstorms, especially on Thursday.

.Flooding and Heavy Rainfall...
After Tuesday, the risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will
continue with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected
through the end of the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
633 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ016-022-023-210000-
Washita OK-Caddo OK-Custer OK-
633 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Washita...
northwestern Caddo and southeastern Custer Counties Until 700 PM
CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Colony, moving north at 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 9873 3555 9853 3555 9844 3519 9855
      3521 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 187DEG 43KT 3528 9865

30