Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

.AVIATION...
TAFs 0912/1012...
A small cluster of strong to marginally severe storms are moving
southward across north central Oklahoma early this morning.
Additional development to the south is likely this morning, mainly
along and north of an outflow boundary. The storms will likely
impact at least PNC/OKC/OUN. Mainly VFR ceilings are expected
within and around the storms, but heavy rainfall could lower
visibility to below 3 miles. A strong cold front will also bring
a wind shift to all TAF sites by late afternoon.  Strong gusty
northerly winds can be expected behind the front, along with MVFR
ceilings. The wind should decrease during the evening and
overnight, and ceiling heights will increase to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019/

DISCUSSION...

MCS currently tracking southeastward across south-central Kansas
will be the main focus in the short term ahead of a
cold front that will cross the area today. Warm mid level
temperatures across western Oklahoma will likely keep convection
focused across the eastern half of the area as the MCS continues to
progress southward. Intensity has been trending downward over the
past hour or so and models suggest this trend may continue through
the morning as instability wanes. Still, isolated strong wind gusts will be possible as the
system treks across northeastern portions of the area. The line will
likely bring more heavy rainfall to already saturated soils so localized
flooding will also be a concern. Redevelopment of storms may occur
along and south of any outflow boundary left behind from morning
convection, most likely across southern Oklahoma this afternoon,
although the exact location and overall chance of redevelopment is
still uncertain at this time.

One thing that is certain is that the airmass behind the cold front
will be much cooler and drier than is normal for this time of year.
In fact, temperatures this afternoon may struggle to stay above 60
degrees across northwestern Oklahoma, which combined with a brisk
north wind and lingering cloud cover will likely make it feel rather
chilly. Wind speeds may approach wind advisory criteria across our
western zones but will hold off on an advisory for now as gusts over 40 mph
appear to be more isolated than common for today.

The drier airmass and cooler north winds will continue through Tuesday
keeping temperatures below average under continued northwest flow
aloft. Normally northwest flow this time of year would signal chances for
overnight MCS activity but with moisture being wiped out by the cold
front all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, any convection forming up
in Colorado or Kansas will likely struggle to maintain itself into
our area. Models do suggest some rain chances will return by Tuesday
night along another cold front but again the lack of moisture
suggests the severe threat will be minimal at this time.

By Thursday night into Friday moisture return and a strengthening
low level jet should bring slightly better chances for thunderstorm
activity, especially for western portions of the area. Uncertainty
then increases into next weekend as the latest GFS tries to stall a
cold front across the area with unsettled conditons while the ECM is
slower with the front leaving most of the area dry. Went with the
slower solution for now as the GFS is a major deviation from its
previous runs.

Ware

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  58  76  56 /  60  20   0  10
Hobart OK         81  57  77  57 /  20  20   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  62  78  59 /  30  30   0  10
Gage OK           70  49  75  54 /  20  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     77  55  77  56 /  70  10   0   0
Durant OK         89  64  79  60 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
408 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
408 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A marginal risk for severe storms exists across northern and
central Oklahoma as a complex of storms moves across these areas
this morning. Strong gusty winds and perhaps small hail will be
possible with these storms. A slight risk for severe storms exists
across far southern Oklahoma and portions of western North Texas
as additional storms may develop this afternoon with a risk for
damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
There are low thunderstorm chances Monday
through Friday of next week. Severe weather is not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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