Wind Advisory 11, NWS New York, NY

494 
WWUS71 KOKX 310038
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
838 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

CTZ005>012-NYZ075-078>081-176>179-311000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
838 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph. 

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, and New
  London. In New York, Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk.

* WHEN...Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

715 
WWUS71 KOKX 310802
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

CTZ005>008-010>012-NYZ079-081-312100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Freeze Watch,
which is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning.

* TEMPERATURES...As low as the upper 20s. 

* TIMING...Strongest wind gusts late this evening and overnight.
  Freeze conditions late Friday night into early Saturday morning. 

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  50 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, New Haven,
  Middlesex, and New London. In New York, Northeastern Suffolk,
  and Southeastern Suffolk.

* WHEN...Tonight for the wind advisory, late Friday night into
  early Saturday morning for the freeze watch. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Below freezing
  temperatures could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

A Freeze Watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ075-078-080-176>179-312100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  50 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield. In New York, Kings
  (Brooklyn), Queens, Nassau, Southwestern Suffolk, and
  Northwestern Suffolk.

* WHEN...Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ068>070-312100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Western Passaic-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Freeze Watch,
which is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning.

* TEMPERATURES...As low as the upper 20s. 

* TIMING...Late Friday night into early Saturday morning. 

* IMPACTS...Below freezing temperatures could kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

118 
WWUS71 KOKX 311948
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-011200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, south winds 20 to 30 mph with
  gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub- freezing
  temperatures as low as the upper 20s.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Middlesex, Northern New 
  London, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. 
  In New York, Northeastern Suffolk and Southeastern Suffolk 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 6 
  AM EDT Friday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Friday night 
  through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Scattered to numerous power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Frost and
  freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation
  and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>074-011000-
/O.EXA.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph. 

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hudson, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex 
  and Eastern Union Counties. In New York, Southern Westchester, 
  New York (Manhattan), Bronx and Richmond (Staten Island) 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will bring down scattered limbs, trees, 
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-010-011200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern New Haven-
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as
  the upper 20s.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, New Haven,
  Middlesex, and New London. In New York, Northeastern Suffolk,
  and Southeastern Suffolk.

* WHEN...Strongest wind gusts late this evening and overnight.
  Freeze conditions late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down scattered limbs, trees, 
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Below 
  freezing temperatures could kill crops and other sensitive 
  vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

A Freeze Watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ075-078-080-176>179-011000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.191101T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  50 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield. In New York, Kings 
  (Brooklyn), Queens, Nassau, Southwestern Suffolk, and 
  Northwestern Suffolk.

* WHEN...Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down scattered limbs, trees,
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ068>070-011200-
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Western Passaic-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
348 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...As low as the upper 20s.

* TIMING...Late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Below freezing temperatures could kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

442 
WWUS71 KOKX 010753
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
353 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-011600-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
353 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, southwest to west winds 15 to 30
  mph with gusts up to 50 mph. For the Freeze Watch, sub- 
  freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Middlesex, Northern New 
  London, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. 
  In New York, Northeastern Suffolk and Southeastern Suffolk 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until noon EDT today. For the 
  Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will bring down scattered limbs, trees,
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Frost 
  and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive 
  vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ068>070-011600-
/O.EXB.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Western Passaic-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
353 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph. 

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, 
  Putnam, Rockland and Northern Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until noon EDT today. For the 
  Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Saturday morning.

* TEMPERATURES...As low as the upper 20s.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will bring down scattered limbs, trees,
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Below 
  freezing temperatures could kill crops and other sensitive 
  vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NJZ004-103-105-107-NYZ067-011600-
/O.EXB.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-
353 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph. 

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic, Western Bergen, 
  Western Essex and Western Union Counties. In New York, Orange 
  County.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will bring down scattered limbs, trees,
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-010-011600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern New Haven-
353 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 
  the upper 20s.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, New Haven, 
  Middlesex, and New London. In New York, Northeastern Suffolk, 
  and Southeastern Suffolk.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until noon EDT today. For the 
  Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will blow down scattered limbs, trees, 
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Below 
  freezing temperatures could kill crops and other sensitive 
  vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

A Freeze Watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-011600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-
Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
353 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph. 

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hudson, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex 
  and Eastern Union Counties. In New York, Southern Westchester, 
  New York (Manhattan), Bronx and Richmond (Staten Island) 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will bring down scattered limbs, trees, 
  and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

902 
WWUS71 KOKX 011551
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1151 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

CTZ005>008-010>012-NJZ002-NYZ068>070-079-081-020000-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.A.0001.191102T0400Z-191102T1400Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Western Passaic-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
1151 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as the upper 20s.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Middlesex, Northern New 
  London, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. 
  In New York, Northeastern Suffolk and Southeastern Suffolk 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ067-071>075-078-080-176>179-011700-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1151 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT TODAY...

Wind gusts to around 35 MPH can be expected at times today.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
212 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure remains just offshore of the Delmarva today.
Another low approaches from the southwest tonight through
Thursday. A strong cold front associated with the low will
approach and then move across Thursday night, followed by high
pressure into Saturday. A weak cold front will move across
Saturday night while low pressure passes well to the southeast.
High pressure will return for Sunday through Monday night, then
pass east on Tuesday as another frontal system approaches from
the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is mostly on track. Adjusted high temps downward
by a degree or two in most areas due to latest trends.

A weak surface low slowly drifts north of Delmarva today with
low level moisture remaining trapped under a subsidence
inversion. Periods of light rain and drizzle will continue
through the day with low level thermal forcing and as vort
maxes move into the region on the upper southwest flow. The low
weakens late in the day along with the low level inversion as
heights begin to fall and the ridge moves east ahead of a
longwave trough moving into the central and southern plains. By
the afternoon the precipitation may even end and become more
showery.

Temperatures remain a little above normal, and there will not
be much variability across the forecast area under the cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight through Thursday the longwave trough will be slowly
approaching as deep ridging remains over the north Atlantic. The
surface low will be moving out of the Gulf coast states into the
Tennessee Valley and into the Great Lakes region Thursday. Weak
warm advection will be on going tonight through Thursday.
Moisture will be increasing at all levels Wednesday night so
precipitation will become likely. There will be little
destabilization and little CAPE at the surface or elevated, so
will not be mentioning thunder. An increasing low level jet
could enhance rainfall Thursday afternoon, especially inland as
thermal forcing also shifts inland. Despite cloud cover
temperatures will rise ti well above normal for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deterministic model guidance in close agreement into early next
week, so a multi-model blend used for much of the period. We
begin quite unsettled as a large upper trough becomes negatively
tilted as it swings eastward, with a sharp cold frontal
boundary passing through Thu night and accompanied by a narrow
band of low-topped convection. Guidance has trended toward a
more unstable scenario aloft, and given this plus strong forced
ascent with the band have added slight chance of thunder. Strong
S winds expected prior to fropa especially at the coast as an
LLJ passes overhead, and both sustained winds and gusts could
flirt with advy criteria especially the south shore and east end
of Long Island. Strong W winds could also occur with the band
of convection at fropa and afterward into Fri morning, as models
depict quite a westerly push given the very sharp frontal
boundary, also largest post-frontal pressure rises aimed right
at the area and strong low level CAA implying good downward
motion and good potential for mixing of stronger winds to the
sfc. A sharp temp drop also expected, with evening temps in the
upper 60s to near 70 dropping quickly into the 50s after fropa,
and not recovering much daytime Fri.

Dry/cool conditions should last into early next week, with a
reinforcing dry cold fropa Sat night, whose mid level shortwave
should also kick a developing offshore wave of low pressure and
keep it out to sea. High pressure follows for Sunday through Mon
night, then passes E on Tue as the next frontal system arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front develops over the region today, and passes north of
the area on Thursday.

Mainly IFR or lower is expected this afternoon, with pockets of
light rain and drizzle. There is a chance that some breaks to
MVFR are possible, especially north of the NYC airports.

IFR or lower tonight with periods of rain/drizzle. The rain
becomes steadier/heavier at times Thursday, especially north of
the NYC terminals, then transitions to showery again after 18Z.

Light winds through this evening, then speeds increase on
Thursday, with LLWS overspreading the region as well. Wind
direction will be variable through this evening, but then begins
to tend to the south as speeds increase on Thursday.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and
visibility. Variability in wind direction can be expected
through this evening.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and
visibility. Winds may remain northeast into this evening.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and
visibility.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and
visibility.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and
visibility.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and
visibility.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Rest of Thursday...LLWS. Mainly IFR or lower. Wind gusts
around 40kt possible. Wind direction shifts behind a cold front
late.
.Friday...Becoming VFR win west winds gusting to around 35kt.
.Saturday...VFR with light winds.
.Sunday...VFR with northwest winds gusting to around 20kt.
.Monday...VFR with southerly winds developing.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today and tonight.
Then with a southerly flow increasing ahead of a strong cold
front ocean seas will be building to SCA levels Thursday morning
into the afternoon. In addition wind gusts will be near 25 kt
across all the forecast waters late Thursday morning through the
afternoon. Therefore, a small craft advisory has been issued for
all the forecast waters.

Gale watch issued for all waters Thu night, and for the ocean
waters daytime Fri. Southerly LLJ passing overhead Thu night
ahead of an approaching cold front and post-frontal cold fropa
suggest good potential for wind gusts 35-40 kt. Ocean seas per
blend of NWPS and WaveWatch could reach 13-15 ft on the ocean,
and 5-7 ft on the eastern Sound. SCA conds expected on the non-
ocean waters daytime Fri, with perhaps a few gusts up to 35 kt
on NY Harbor. Winds and seas should subside further Fri night,
with SCA conds confined to the ocean waters.

After cold fropa Sat night, could see SCA conds on NY Harbor
and the ocean waters, with winds gusting up to 25 kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts through today will be light with generally less
than one tenth of an inch.

Rainfall amounts from tonight into Thu night will range from
0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally higher amounts closer to 2
inches. The highest rainfall amounts will be across the Lower
Hudson Valley, Northeast NJ and SW Connecticut. Urban and poor
drainage flooding is possible, with clogged storm drains due to
fallen leaves complicating matters in spots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running high due to recent new moon and
easterly fetch and lingering easterly swells.

Forecast water levels with tonight's high tide are expected to
remain below minor benchmarks.

The next cycle of concern is for Thursday morning. Tidal
departures of 0.5 ft to 1 ft will result in minor coastal
flooding across the south shore bays and localized minor coastal
flooding in the lower New York Harbor and in the western long
island sound along the CT coast. A coastal flood headlines have
been issued for Thursday morning.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating
at reduced power until further notice.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night
     for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Goodman/19
NEAR TERM...JC/19
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...
MARINE...Goodman/19
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/19
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
1206 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-302200-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1206 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ350-353-355-302200-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1206 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-302200-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1206 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.