Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach and cross the area tonight.
The cold front then stalls offshore Thursday into Friday as
high pressure builds to the west. A weak cold front moves across
late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and are expected to
impact the area through tonight. The main threat will be
damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

Localized flooding cannot be ruled out due to high rainfall
rates and if thunderstorms pass over the same areas. Precipitable
water values do approach 2 inches late today, along with a deep
warm cloud layer and more than sufficient instability. However
coverage is in question, and the potential for training appears
to be less now with the latest guidance as any cells should get
moving by the early evening, therefore overall duration of heavy
rainfall is in question.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
Ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The convective allowing models are in good agreement that convection
coverage and intensity will decrease after 02z, with far eastern
sections potentially seeing convective showers and storms up to
about 5z. After that coverage should wane quickly, with all eastern
zones primarily dry towards 12z Thu. Fog was not put into the
forecast for early Thursday morning at this time, but cannot be
ruled out and will depend on how quickly the somewhat drier air can
work in from the north and northwest. This is in question given the
weak flow into Thursday morning. Weak high pressure begins to build
in from the west during the day on Thursday with dew points lowering
slightly, it will make it a bit more comfortable. Temperatures
will average near normal with day time highs mainly in the
middle 80s, with perhaps a few upper 80s in the typically warmer
urban locations.

There is a low risk of rip current development at Atlantic
Ocean beaches on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term will begin with an upper level trough over the eastern
US. Heights aloft should flatten briefly on Friday before falling
and amplifying somewhat this weekend. This is due to an upper low
over SE Canada digging into New England. The flow then is progged to
flatten on Monday with the next potential shortwave trough
establishing itself to the west on Tuesday.

Thursday night into Friday night should remain dry with no real
discernible forcing. Forecast soundings are quite dry in the middle
levels as well. A weak cold front approaches on Saturday as heights
fall aloft. This should be enough for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. This front will then
move across on Sunday. A shower and thunderstorm remains possible in
the afternoon, but coverage should be limited due to westerly flow
drying the atmosphere out. High pressure then settles over the
region on Monday before the next frontal system approaches on
Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures are forecast through the long term, but no
significant heat is anticipated. High temperatures should generally
be in the middle 80s each day. The warmest day may end up being
Sunday with westerly flow as the cold front moves through the
region. Forecast highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s and
touching 90 in NYC metro and urban NE NJ is possible. The westerly
flow should mix dew points out with heat index values closer to the
actual air temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west and moves through
the region tonight.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop this
afternoon. Some of the storms will produce heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. With stronger thunderstorms expected, IFR conditions are
likely. East of the NYC terminals thunderstorms and showers
likely by late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms begin to
diminish after 03Z Thursday, exiting the eastern terminals after
07Z.

Patchy MVFR fog possible at the outlying terminals late tonight
with light winds.

Winds S to SW less than 10 kt will become more southerly and
increase to 10-15 kt as the afternoon progresses. Gusts up to 20
kt are possible, with moderate confidence. Gust may be more
occasional than indicated in the forecast. Stronger wind gusts,
25-35 kt, in thunderstorms are possible, and a few storms may
produce gusts as high as 45 kt.

Winds diminish this evening as the front approaches the area,
then shift to the W and NW with the frontal passage. Northerly
winds remain into Thursday.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Thunderstorms are likely from 19-23Z, with
the highest chances 20-22Z, with potential wind gusts 25-35kt,
possibly as high as 45 kt.

KLGA TAF Comments: Gusty southerly, 180 to 200 true, winds up to 20
kt possible later this afternoon outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
are likely from 19-23Z, with the highest chances 20-22Z, with
potential wind gusts 25-35kt, possibly as high as 45 kt.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusty southwesterly, 190 to 200 true, winds
up to 20 kt possible this afternoon outside of thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms are likely from 19-22Z, with potential wind gusts
25-35kt. There is a chance of gusts as high as 45 kt.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusty south to southwest, 190 to 200 true,
winds around 15 kt possible this afternoon outside of
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are likely from 19-22Z with
potential wind gusts 25-35kt. There is a chance of gusts as high
as 45 kt.

KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional southerly wind gusts to around 15
kt are possible this afternoon. Thunderstorms are likely from
19-23Z, with the highest chances 20-22Z, with potential wind
gusts 25-35kt.

KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusty southerly winds are possible
this afternoon with gusts 15-20 kt. Thunderstorms will become likely
late in the afternoon, around 21Z. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is possible, along with gusty winds in a stronger thunderstorm
after 22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday-Friday...VFR.
.Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR, except for a few showers or
thunderstorms that may develop in the afternoon.
.Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected today with seas on the ocean
generally at 3 ft. Sub SCA levels will continue through the weekend
due to a relatively weak pressure gradient. Seas on the ocean
should generally be around 2 ft for Thursday night through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a marginal risk of localized flash flooding for much of
the region in association with any thunderstorms for this
afternoon and early this evening. Otherwise, no widespread
hydrologic impacts are forecast for Thursday through early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some of the western south shore back bay locations will approach
minor coastal flood benchmarks for the high tide cycles starting
this evening, and for the Thursday and Friday evening high tide
cycles. No statements are planned at this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...CB/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-011930-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Localized flash flooding is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-011930-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
214 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

NJZ006-NYZ072>075-176-311845-
Hudson-Northern Queens-Bronx-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten
Is.)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
214 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUDSON...QUEENS...
RICHMOND...BRONX...KINGS AND NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTIES...

At 214 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Bayonne to Huguenot. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jersey City, Flatbush, Bayonne, Coney Island, Todt Hill, Crown
Heights, RFK Bridge, Huguenot, Midtown Manhattan, The Verrazano
Narrows Bridge, Bay Ridge, Astoria, Lower East Side, East Village and
SoHo.

LAT...LON 4050 7426 4053 7425 4056 7422 4057 7422
      4058 7421 4068 7413 4084 7385 4058 7397
      4056 7401 4060 7404 4053 7411 4052 7414
      4050 7422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 235DEG 12KT 4066 7411 4057 7418

MD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
244 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

CTZ006-311930-
Northern New Haven-
244 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEW HAVEN
COUNTY...

At 244 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Plainville to near Seymour. The
storms are nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waterbury, Meriden, Wallingford, Naugatuck, Wolcott, Hamden,
Cheshire, Seymour, Derby, Prospect, Woodbridge, Beacon Falls,
Bethany, Ansonia and Oxford.

LAT...LON 4156 7295 4156 7288 4155 7287 4154 7285
      4157 7284 4157 7283 4155 7282 4157 7280
      4158 7276 4136 7296 4134 7312 4138 7316
      4139 7318 4161 7294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 240DEG 4KT 4164 7286 4141 7312

MD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
245 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

NJZ006-NYZ072-074-075-176-178-311930-
Hudson-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond
(Staten Is.)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
245 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUDSON...QUEENS...
RICHMOND...KINGS AND NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTIES...

At 245 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Park Slope to near Oakwood. Movement was
southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jersey City, Flatbush, Bayonne, Hoboken, Coney Island, Todt Hill,
Crown Heights, Huguenot, The Verrazano Narrows Bridge, Forest Hills,
Canarsie, Bay Ridge, Lower East Side, East Village and SoHo.

LAT...LON 4053 7425 4056 7423 4056 7422 4059 7421
      4065 7417 4064 7417 4070 7411 4072 7412
      4076 7409 4071 7381 4053 7392 4053 7394
      4056 7395 4056 7401 4060 7404 4053 7411
      4051 7414 4051 7417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 292DEG 11KT 4068 7400 4053 7410

MD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
256 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

CTZ005-006-009-311945-
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-
256 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND
CENTRAL NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

At 255 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Shelton to Wilton. Movement was east
at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bridgeport, Stamford, Norwalk, Shelton, New Canaan, Fairfield,
Hamden, Stratford, Trumbull, Westport, Darien, Monroe, Wilton,
Seymour and Orange.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4137 7295 4131 7302 4131 7306 4129 7307
      4128 7309 4125 7309 4113 7323 4108 7354
      4136 7314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 248DEG 9KT 4134 7313 4116 7339

MD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
320 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

NJZ004-006-104-106-NYZ071>073-176-177-312000-
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Passaic-Northern
Queens-Bronx-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Northern
Nassau-
320 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUDSON...EASTERN
PASSAIC...SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN...SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER...QUEENS...BRONX...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND NORTHWESTERN
NASSAU COUNTIES...

At 320 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Secaucus to Sands Point. Movement was
north at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Jersey City, Yonkers, Paterson, New Rochelle, Flushing,
Passaic, Mott Haven, Hoboken, Bloomfield, East Tremont, Hackensack,
Bergenfield, Lyndhurst and Rutherford.

LAT...LON 4069 7418 4081 7419 4083 7418 4085 7419
      4092 7419 4092 7413 4089 7412 4093 7407
      4098 7370 4092 7369 4088 7374 4087 7367
      4078 7366 4074 7389 4073 7394 4074 7395
      4073 7396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 192DEG 4KT 4078 7407 4086 7372

MD