Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal passage occurs this afternoon. High pressure
builds towards the region Monday, and then establishes itself
over the Western Atlantic through mid to late week. A weak cold
front passes through the region Monday Night before eventually
dissipating. A cold front will approach and pass through the
region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms moving across eastern long island
will move offshore within the next hour. Additional storms north
of the CWA will drop south into our region with the approach of
a vigorous closed low and associated surface cold front.

Expect an increase in cloud cover early this afternoon from NW
to SE. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the front across SE CT and E LI with best combo
of forcing, instability, and moisture convergence as it pushes
southeast. Strong to damaging wind gusts would be the main
threat, based on wind fields, strong forcing, mid-level dry air
and inverted-v soundings. Small hail also likely with any
stronger cells with cold pool aloft. Across Lower Hudson Valley,
NE NJ and NYC metro, strong shear may overwhelm weaker
updrafts, limiting convective potential, but even with any
heavier showers, gusty winds to 40 mph possible. Main timing for
convection appears to be between now and 4pm, lingering a bit
longer across extreme SE CT and twin Fork of LI.

Gusty NW flow expected this afternoon/evening in wake of cold
front with gusts 30-35 mph likely.

A mostly sunny skies for the next hour or two across much of
the region will continue promote strong heating, allowing temps
to quickly rise in the lower 80s to 85 city coast, and upper 70s
to around 80 interior. Temps in the afternoon could locally
drop into the 60s with any heavier shower or tstm activity with
cold pool aloft.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today due to residual
southerly swells. The higher risk will be across eastern LI
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Closed low and associated trough, pivot se of the region tonight,
with cold front pushing well offshore. Any lingering showers across
far eastern portions of the region should come to and quickly this
evening, with clearing skies in subsidence and deep N/NW flow. Gusty
NW winds gradually subside overnight. Noticeably cooler and drier
Canadian airmass, with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Heights gradually rise on Monday, with weak high pressure building
towards the region. Deep mixing, moderating airmass, and a gradually
weakening offshore flow, should spell a mostly sunny, seasonably
warm day with low dewpoints. Highs generally lower 80s to 85,
warmest for city/coastal plain.

Return flow develops Monday Night as surface high pressure builds to
the south of the region, with continued moderation in temps and
humidity. Deep NW flow continues aloft, with northern stream
shortwave diving into northern New England MOnday NIght, with a
dissipating cold front moving towards the region. With limited
moisture, lack of instability and weak forcing, limited chance for
upstream rain showers to make the region.

Increasingly warm and humid day expected on Tuesday, with ridging to
the southeast of the region

There is a low risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean Beaches on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a
relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling
flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson's Bay low begins
to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and
Northeast.

Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through
Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach
95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru
Saturday.

Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this
point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible
MCS's appear more likely to the south of the area, based on
ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for
organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold
front, but low predictability this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to rotate sewd
across the region for the rest of the afternoon. The activity is
expected to remain north and east of the NYC airports at this
time, however, there is a low chance LGA could be impacted.
Outside of the rain, VFR can be expected through the TAF period.

Gusty NW flow of 20-30kt will continue into the early evening
before diminishing tonight. Light W flow on Mon likely allows
for sea breeze development.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible, mainly Tue night.
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible.
.Friday...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt expected across NY Harbor, W LI
Sound, South Shore bays and ocean waters west of Moriches Inlet
this afternoon, lingering on the ocean through late tonight.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to return Monday as high
pressure builds towards the waters, and continue Tuesday through
Thursday in a weak but persistent SW pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding is possible with the afternoon
high tides Mon through Wed in the most vulnerable south shore
bays and W LI Sound locales with approach of new moon.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
     338-345.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

CTZ005>012-NYZ078-079-177-011330-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon
with a cold frontal passage. The main threats will be strong to
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ080-081-179-011330-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon
with a cold frontal passage. The main threats will be strong to
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-011330-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon
with a cold frontal passage. The main threats will be strong to
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-176-011330-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens-
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible this afternoon with a
cold frontal passage. The main threat will be strong wind gusts and
small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ075-178-011330-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible this afternoon with a
cold frontal passage. The main threat will be strong wind gusts and
small hail.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ338-355-011330-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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