Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS New York, NY

304 
WGUS71 KOKX 231216
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
816 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

NYC103-231315-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190723T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Suffolk NY-
816 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM EDT FOR
WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...

At 814 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated moderate to heavy rain across 
the warned area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen. Flash 
flooding is expected.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Islip, Brentwood, Commack, Huntington Station, Deer Park,
Lindenhurst, Hauppauge, Huntington, Stony Brook, Babylon, Northport,
Dix Hills, Smithtown, Bay Shore and Melville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4065 7342 4084 7345 4094 7350 4095 7345
      4094 7342 4097 7339 4094 7334 4095 7329
      4092 7322 4093 7317 4097 7317 4098 7315
      4097 7315 4091 7310 4072 7320

$$

BC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
634 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure ride along a frontal boundary stalled near
the area through the day and into tonight. High pressure builds
from the west on Wednesday, allowing the boundary to move east
of the area. High pressure remains over the area into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The heaviest showers this morning have produced three quarters
to around an inch of rain in an hour, leading to additional
flash flooding. This last batch of steady rain will continue to
work through the area over the next several hours before
precipitation becomes more scattered by afternoon. Only minor
changes were made with this update, and the forecast appears to
be on track.

With precipitable water values remaining around 2 inches
through this morning, the Flash Flood Watch was extended through
noon today. The watch was also extended eastward to include the
remainder of the forecast area as many locations have already
received 1-2 inches of rain with an additional half to one inch
of rain expected. At this point the best instability remains
offshore, so the majority of the precipitation should fall as
heavy showers, with only isolated thunder possible.

The bulk of the precipitation will come to an end late this
morning as the wave exits the area, but the chance of showers
will linger across the area through this afternoon with the
front just offshore and an upper level trough over the region.

Under plenty of cloud cover, temperatures will be below normal,
with highs only rising into the mid 70s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Atlantic Ocean
beaches today, possibly becoming high this afternoon across
eastern Suffolk County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The final wave along the front passes offshore overnight, but
with the front continuing to gradually shift south, the best
chances for precipitation will be across Long Island and far
southeastern Connecticut. Depending on how close to the coast
the final wave passes, patchy fog development is possible in
areas where winds become light.

Dry conditions return Wednesday morning as the front shifts
farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the west.
Under increasingly sunny skies, temperatures are expected to
rise into the lower 80s.

There is a low risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean
beaches on Wednesday

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong polar upper low drops into Hudson Bay during the mid to late
week, gradually shearing the closed low currently over Northern
Quebec towards Greenland. The associated deep Eastern US troughing
will slowly weaken through the week as a result, with weak upper
ridging signaled for the weekend ahead of the next closed
shearing eastward just north of the Great lakes.

At the surface, generally tranquil conditions expected, with weak
and elongated high pressure sprawled across the Eastern US in wake
of the offshore cold front slowly drifting eastward. A gradual
moderation in temps expected through the period, starting a
seasonable levels with comfortable humidity mid week and rising to
above seasonal with increasing humidity late week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Waves of low pressure will ride along a stalled frontal boundary
near the area into tonight.

Additional showers will affect the TAF sites through this
afternoon. Generally expect deteriorating cigs and vsbys with
widespread MVFR or lower through much of the TAF period. VFR
conditions are not expected to return until the middle to late
part of Tuesday as a cold front moves across the terminals.

Winds remain fairly tricky initially with multiple boundaries
moving across the area. Winds should generally be from the
north/northeast less than 10kt before turning toward a more
northwesterly direction after daybreak.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories. Low confidence in wind forecast.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments
likely.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments
likely.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in wind forecast. Amendments
likely.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories. Low confidence in wind forecast.

KISP TAF Comments:Amendments likely for changing flight
categories. Low confidence in wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday afternoon...Scattered showers, with MVFR or lower
conditions expected.
.Wednesday though Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A front will remain stalled over the waters today, with waves
of low pressure passing along it. Any showers and thunderstorms
that develop along or near the boundary will likely have locally
heavy downpours with visibility restrictions, and the potential
for gusty winds. Winds will remain light outside of any
thunderstorms.

With seas on the ocean waters increasing to 5 feet this morning,
a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Seas will begin to
subside this evening, although they are expected to remain at
least 5 feet into tonight east of Moriches Inlet.

Once seas subside tonight, conditions are expected to remain
below SCA criteria into the weekend as high pressure builds into
the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flash Flood Watch has been extended until noon today and
expanded to include the entire CWA. Basin average rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches occurred through Monday evening, and
additional rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch this morning falling on
already saturated ground could lead to flash flooding. This will
be especially true in areas of poor drainage, low-lying areas,
and in urban areas. A few fast reacting rivers and streams may
also see rises, with flooding possible.

Once the steadiest rain moves out of the area late this
morning/early this afternoon, no hydrologic impacts are expected
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FEB
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...FEB/NV
HYDROLOGY...Fig/NV
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
411 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-241000-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
411 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-241000-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
411 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
556 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PLEASANTVILLE           41.14N  73.78W
07/23/2019                   WESTCHESTER        NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY CLOSED NORTHBOUND AT MARBLE
            AVENUE (EXIT 27) AND SOUTHBOUND AT MANVILLE ROAD.

&&

FEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.92W
07/22/2019                   NEW HAVEN          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TERMINAL FLOODED AT NEW HAVEN AIRPORT WHEN HEAVY RAIN
            OVERWHELMED THE STORM DRAIN SYSTEM. THE AIRPORT IS
            CLOSED UNTIL 5:45 PM TUESDAY.

&&

FEB