Coastal Flood Statement 39, NWS New York, NY

875 
WHUS41 KOKX 030740
CFWOKX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...Minor Coastal Flooding this Afternoon...

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ074-075-080-178-179-031545-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0013.191003T1500Z-191003T2000Z/
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in Hudson, Eastern Essex
  and Eastern Union, Southern Nassau, Richmond (Staten Island), 
  Kings (Brooklyn), Southwestern Suffolk and Southern Queens 
  counties.

* TIMING...During the times of high tide from 11 AM this morning 
  to 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Minor flooding is expected in the most
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Expect
  around 1 to 1 1/2 feet of inundation above ground level in low
  lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads and low lying property
  including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with
  basements near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. 

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...3 to 5 ft breaking waves may result in 
  minor beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

NEW YORK HARBOR AT THE BATTERY NYC
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------   
 03/01 PM   6.9/ 7.4   1.9/ 2.3   1.4/ 1.9    0-1      NONE    

KILL VAN KULL AT BERGEN POINT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------   
 03/01 PM   7.4/ 7.9   1.9/ 2.3   1.4/ 1.9    0-1     MINOR    
 

JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------   
 03/01 PM   7.7/ 8.2   1.8/ 2.2   1.1/ 1.6     1      MINOR    


JAMAICA BAY AT ROCKAWAY INLET NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/12 PM   7.4/ 7.9   1.8/ 2.2   1.4/ 1.9    1-2     MINOR    


GREAT SOUTH BAY AT LINDENHURST NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/03 PM   2.8/ 3.4   1.4/ 1.9   1.4/ 1.9    1-2     MINOR    


EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 3.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/12 PM   6.5/ 7.0   1.5/ 1.9   1.2/ 1.7    2-3      MINOR    

HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.7 FT, MODERATE 6.2 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.2 FT, MODERATE 1.7 FT, MAJOR 2.4 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  -------- 
 03/01 PM   5.9/ 6.4   1.4/ 1.9   2.2/ 2.7     1      MIN-MOD   


REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/12 PM   6.2/ 6.7   1.5/ 2.0   1.8/ 2.2    3-4     MINOR    


&&

$$

CTZ010-NYZ073-031545-
/O.EXA.KOKX.CF.S.0039.191003T1900Z-191003T2100Z/
Southern New Haven-Bronx-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in Southern New Haven and
  Bronx counties.

* TIMING...During the times of high tide from 3 PM EDT this 
  afternoon through 5 PM this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, with
  less than 1 foot of inundation above ground level.

&&

$$

NYZ072-031545-
/O.EXT.KOKX.CF.S.0038.191003T1600Z-191003T2100Z/
New York (Manhattan)-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in New York (Manhattan).

* TIMING...During the times of high tide from noon EDT today 
  through 5 PM this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, with
  less than 1 foot of inundation above ground level.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071-078-177-031545-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0039.191003T1900Z-191003T2100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-
340 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in Southern Fairfield, Southern
  Westchester, Northern Nassau and Northwestern Suffolk counties.

* TIMING...During the times of high tide from 3 PM EDT this
  afternoon through 5 PM this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, with
  less than 1 foot of inundation above ground level.

&&

$$

604 
WHUS41 KOKX 031245
CFWOKX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
845 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...Minor Coastal Flooding this Afternoon...

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ074-075-080-178-179-032000-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0013.191003T1500Z-191003T2000Z/
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
845 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in Hudson, Eastern Essex
  and Eastern Union, Southern Nassau, Richmond (Staten Island), 
  Kings (Brooklyn), Southwestern Suffolk and Southern Queens 
  counties.

* TIMING...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Minor flooding is expected in the most 
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Expect 
  around 1 to 1 1/2 feet of inundation above ground level in low 
  lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads and low lying property 
  including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with 
  basements near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...3 to 5 ft breaking waves may result in 
  minor beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

NEW YORK HARBOR AT THE BATTERY NYC
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/01 PM   6.9/ 7.4   1.9/ 2.3   1.4/ 1.9    0-1      NONE    


KILL VAN KULL AT BERGEN POINT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.2 FT, MODERATE 8.5 FT, MAJOR 9.6 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/01 PM   7.4/ 7.9   1.9/ 2.3   1.4/ 1.9    0-1      MINOR    

JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/01 PM   7.7/ 8.2   1.8/ 2.2   1.1/ 1.6     1      MINOR    

JAMAICA BAY AT ROCKAWAY INLET NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/12 PM   7.4/ 7.9   1.8/ 2.2   1.4/ 1.9    1-2     MINOR    


GREAT SOUTH BAY AT LINDENHURST NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/03 PM   2.8/ 3.4   1.4/ 1.9   1.4/ 1.9    1-2     MINOR    

EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 3.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/12 PM   6.5/ 7.0   1.5/ 1.9   1.2/ 1.7    2-3     MINOR    


HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.7 FT, MODERATE 6.2 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.2 FT, MODERATE 1.7 FT, MAJOR 2.4 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/01 PM   5.9/ 6.4   1.4/ 1.9   2.2/ 2.7     1      MIN-MOD    

REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 03/12 PM   6.2/ 6.7   1.5/ 2.0   1.8/ 2.2    3-4      MINOR    

&&

$$

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-078-177-032100-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0039.191003T1900Z-191003T2100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Westchester-Bronx-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
845 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in Southern Fairfield,
  Southern New Haven, Southern Westchester, Bronx, Northern 
  Nassau and Northwestern Suffolk counties.

* TIMING...During the times of high tide from 3 PM EDT this 
  afternoon through 5 PM this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most 
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, with 
  less than 1 foot of inundation above ground level.

&&

$$

NYZ072-032100-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0038.191003T1600Z-191003T2100Z/
New York (Manhattan)-
845 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in New York (Manhattan).

* TIMING...During the times of high tide from noon EDT today 
  through 5 PM this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most 
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, with 
  less than 1 foot of inundation above ground level.

&&

$$

781 
WHUS41 KOKX 031954
CFWOKX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...Localized Minor Coastal Flooding this Afternoon...

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ074-075-080-178-179-032100-
/O.EXP.KOKX.CF.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-191003T2000Z/
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

Tides will remain below flooding levels for the rest of the day.

&&

$$

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-078-177-032100-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0039.000000T0000Z-191003T2100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Westchester-Bronx-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in Southern Fairfield,
  Southern New Haven, Southern Westchester, Bronx, Northern 
  Nassau and Northwestern Suffolk counties.

* TIMING...During the times of high tide through 5 PM this a
  afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most 
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, with 
  less than 1 foot of inundation above ground level.
&&

$$

NYZ072-032100-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0038.000000T0000Z-191003T2100Z/
New York (Manhattan)-
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Vulnerable coastal locales in New York (Manhattan).

* TIMING...During the times of high tide through 5 PM this afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Brief minor flooding of the most 
  vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline, with 
  less than 1 foot of inundation above ground level.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1143 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through late this afternoon into early
this evening, then become stationary across the Mid Atlantic
region on Thursday, with low pressure approaching Thursday
afternoon and moving across Thursday night. The low will pass
east early Friday, followed by building high pressure into
Saturday. An offshore wave of low pressure could impact the area
next Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Adjustments to forecast to bring more chances of thunderstorms,
mention gusty winds and have moderate showers with lower
visibilities this afternoon. Temperatures adjusted slightly
higher for the eastern half of the region. Dewpoints were
slightly adjusted as well.

Region will lie on the NE side of flattening southern upper ridging
today, with weak vorticity moving through the mid to upper level
westerly flow. At the surface, a cold front sagging through northern
New York/New England this morning will push through the region
during the late afternoon/early evening.

Record warmth and unseasonably high humidity levels are forecast
for today. Gusty W downslope flow, mixing to 850mb, and
sufficient sunshine through high/mid clouds ahead of approaching
cold front should allow temps to soar to record levels today
for much of the region, at least generally mid/upper 80s, around
90 for NYC/NJ metro. Some guidance suggests even warmer
temperatures are possible.

Vort energy aloft should be trigger and cold front should be focus
for scattered shower and thunderstorm development late afternoon
into early evening as it passes through a marginally unstable and
near record moist environment (2" PWATS). Environment does not look
favorable for severe wx with weak mid-level lapse rates, but
moderate uni-directional shear and mid-level winds and inverted-v
soundings along with arrival and development with time of peak
heating will present a conditional risk for strong winds gusts
with any thunderstorms. Gusty winds were mentioned with some
thunderstorms in the forecast. Heavy downpours will be possible
with any deeper convection, but movement of front and individual
cells should limit flooding threat to localized minor urban and
poor drainage. Also went with moderate showers along with the
chance for thunderstorms to show potential for heavier downpours
and lower visibilities as a result.

Cold front should push south of the region by 7-8pm, ending threat
for thunderstorms, and ushering in significantly cooler and drier
air on gusty N/NE winds. Brief wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and
temperature dropping 10 to 20 degrees in a one to two hour time
period are quite possible directly in wake of frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Southern upper ridging continues to flatten during this period, with
an active westerly flow aloft. At the surface, cold front pushes
well south into the Mid-Atlantic tonight with a series of weak waves
tracking east along it, as Canadian high pressure builds into
northern New England.

Vort energy moving through aloft and warm advection ahead of weak
waves of low pressure will allow for scattered showers to once
again move in from the west, likely weakening or dissipating
across eastern portions of the region as they move into a
subsident and dry airmass. WAA should increase Thursday
afternoon into evening ahead of approaching shortwave energy and
low pressure approaching Western NY/PA. This should increase
the likelihood of showers across western portions of the Tri-
State, but progress into eastern LI and SE CT may be tough until
arrival of the low Thu Night.

Thursday will feel quite fall-like, with temps 20-30 degrees cooler
than Wednesday, and highs holding into the 50s to around 50 degrees
with stratus and showers, gusty easterly flow (10-15 gusts to 20
mph), and low-level Canadian airmass moving in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Remarkable consistency continues through much of the
period, with forecast certainty remaining fairly high through
Monday, then muddling by next Tuesday. Siding more with NAM/ECMWF vs
GFS idea of primary sfc low pressure weakening upstate Thu night
while a triple point low forms over the area, which then takes over
as the primary low east of the area on Fri. Should see a stripe of
moderate rain moving across during the first half of Thu night as
this evolves, then gradually tapering off after midnight, with
perhaps some lingering showers at daybreak mainly across Suffolk on
Long Island and across SE CT, then mostly sunny skies and a brisk NW-
N flow gusting to 30-35 mph, perhaps closer to 40 mph in/near NYC
and across parts of Long Island. Winds then diminish as cool sfc
high pressure dominates into Sat, with highs in the upper 50 and
60s, and lows Fri night from the mid 30s inland and across eastern
Long Island, to the 40s right along the coast and in the NYC metro
area.

It will become noticeably warmer early next week as the high moves
east and a S return flow becomes established, with highs in the
lower/mid 70s on Sunday, and mid/upper 70s on Mon, but with chances
for showers as a slow moving frontal system approaches. GFS too fast
to build high pressure in Mon night/Tue, and favored less
progressive ECMWF scenario, which may be delayed further (and also
be wetter) if a sfc wave develops along the front. Models also show
a weak subtropical low passing offshore, perhaps close enough to
enhance low level Atlantic inflow at that time and/or induce better
lift along the front in predecessor fashion.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure, with a trailing cold front, moves through the
Canadian maritime and into the Atlantic today as the front sinks
south. The front moves through the terminals late this
afternoon into this evening. There will be a chance of showers
along the front with isolated thunderstorms possibly. The front
becomes stationary south of the area late tonight. Low pressure
begins to approach along the front toward 12Z Thursday.

VFR expected through this afternoon, with conditions lowering to
MVFR after 00Z Thursday possibly earlier.

SW flow persists around 10 kts early this afternoon becomes W,
and then NW to N as the cold front passes through the terminals.
Gusts up to 19 kt are likely this afternoon at the NYC metro
and coastal terminals. This evening and tonight winds become NE
with gusts to around 20 kt.

  ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Exact timing of westerly winds and gusts may
need amending through the near term. Confidence in thunderstorm
development within showers is too low to include in TAF at this
time but will have to be monitored.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Exact timing of westerly winds and gusts may
need amending through the near term. Confidence in thunderstorm
development within showers is too low to include in TAF at this
time but will have to be monitored.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Exact timing of westerly winds and gusts may
need amending through the near term. Confidence in thunderstorm
development within showers is too low to include in TAF at this
time but will have to be monitored.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Exact timing of westerly winds and gusts may
need amending through the near term. Confidence in thunderstorm
development within showers is too low to include in TAF at this
time but will have to be monitored.

KHPN TAF Comments: Exact timing of westerly winds and gusts may
need amending through the near term. Confidence in thunderstorm
development within showers is too low to include in TAF at this
time but will have to be monitored. MVFR ceilings may develop
earlier than forecast, possibly as early as 23Z.

KISP TAF Comments: Exact timing of westerly winds and gusts may
need amending through the near term. Confidence in thunderstorm
development within showers is too low to include in TAF at this
time but will have to be monitored. MVFR ceilings may develop
earlier than forecast, possibly as early as 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thursday...MVFR, possibly IFR in rain and fog.
.Friday...Becoming VFR early. NW winds 15-20kt with gusts 25-35 kt,
winds and gusts decreasing at night.
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA seas on the ocean expected through Thursday, with slowly
subsiding se swells from Lorenzo but increasing easterly wind waves
from a tightening E/NE gradient over the water tonight into Thursday.

Sub SCA SW flow expected today ahead of cold front, although a
period of marginal SCA gusts possible across nearshore waters this
afternoon. Then period of SCA wind gusts possible on all waters in
wake of cold frontal passage this evening, and likely on the ocean
waters this evening into Thursday morning.

SCA conds likely to continue on the ocean Thu night via
combo of wind waves in SE-S flow 10-15 kt along with residual long
period swell. Then at least solid SCA conds expected on all waters
Fri as intensifying low pressure moves east and winds shift NW-N,
with gusts at least 30 kt. A period of minimal gale force gusts is
possible on the ocean and some nearshore waters (especially invof
NYC and also out east) Fri morning and early afternoon.
Conds start to improve Fri night, with SCA conds limited to the
ocean and the eastern sound/bays, then quiet this weekend as high
pressure dominates.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall from this afternoon into Thu night could total from
1/2 to 1 inch, with the higher totals expected inland.

No widespread hydrologic impacts expected attm due to
light/moderate intensity and fairly long duration.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Surge from ENE SCA winds, some wave action in the Sound, and a
bit of tidal piling from residual long period swells from
Lorenzo will bring a likelihood for widespread minor coastal
flooding along vulnerable coastal locales along the south shore
bays of W LI and Queens, lower NY/NJ Harbor, and the western LI
Sound during Thursday afternoon high tidal cycle.

Minor flood thresholds are as low as 3/4 to 1 1/2 ft above astro-tide
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the climate records and forecast highs for Today

-------------------
|     |RECORD HIGH|  FORECAST HIGHS
| EWR |  85/1986  |      91
-------------------
| BDR |  83/2013  |      84
-------------------
| NYC |  90/1927  |      89
-------------------
| LGA |  87/2002  |      90
-------------------
| JFK |  85/2013  |      88
-------------------
| ISP |  84/2013  |      87
-------------------

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Goodman/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...MET/DJ/16
MARINE...Goodman/NV
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
433 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-030845-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
433 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability of minimal gale force wind gusts on
Friday on the ocean waters and in nearshore locations, as northwest
winds increase between low pressure departing to the east and high
pressure building from the northwest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-030845-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
433 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.