Alert archive / Tennessee / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

June 23, 2019Pickett County, Tennessee

NWS Nashville, TN issued this special weather statement at Jun 23, 2019, 4:29 PM CDT for Pickett County, Tennessee. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 23, 2019, 4:29 PM CDT (21:29 UTC)
Expired: Jun 23, 2019, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Nashville, TN

County Pickett County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 310 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -162 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1141 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 23, 2:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 23, 2:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorm have started to develop around
Middle TN at forecast time. A few of them could become strong with
gusts winds and small hail through about 6 pm.  However, this isn't
likely to be the show for today. Upstream, a more organized line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach the TN River
around 7 pm. As they near Middle TN, they will be passing through an
instability axis that should top out around 3000 J/Kg due to
environmental temps in the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s. A
lack of shear and modest mid-level lapse rate around 6.5-7.0 deg/km
should keep most of this evening's activity below severe criteria.
However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few storms west of I-65
with some damaging wind gusts. By the time storms reach I-65 (maybe
just east of there), they should begin losing their punch. I have
illustrated this with PoPs falling off in the east prior to midnight.

Around sunrise tomorrow, yet another system should be knocking on
our door. This is likely going to be more synoptically driven
(versus diurnal in nature), which is why we'll run the risk of at
least some strong storms as early as mid-morning. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system will press eastward
through the late morning and early afternoon hours and as they do,
we'll run a slightly better chance of strong to severe storms east
of I-65, especially in the afternoon. Once again, damaging winds
will be the main threat. If there's any silver lining to tomorrow,
models are consistently showing this thunderstorm development
getting east of the Cumberland Plateau prior to 7 pm.

The passage of tomorrow's storms will signal an overall pattern
change. While we won't run into a stretch of days where we're dry,
at least we should be looking at more of a diurnal trend to
thunderstorms, much more summer-like in nature, bringing an end to
what seems to be an endless string of MCSs. On the downside, this
pattern change will come with temperatures much more summerish, too.
Highs in the low 90s will return on a regular basis, fueling those
afternoon/early evening thunderstorm chances each day this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon
ahead of a complex of storms moving of storms moving in from
western Tennessee this evening. That system will be falling apart
as it heads towards BNA and MQY. Those storms will likely not
reach CSV. If a terminal is impacted, visibilities will be reduced
to MVFR/IFR. More storms will likely develop as a front moves
through west to east after 12z. Winds will pick up out of the SSW
after 24/14z to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  85  68  88  69 /  80  80  10  20  10
Clarksville    70  84  65  87  67 /  80  80  10  10  10
Crossville     68  81  63  82  63 /  50  80  30  30  10
Columbia       70  84  66  87  67 /  70  80  10  30  20
Lawrenceburg   70  84  67  86  67 /  50  70  20  30  20
Waverly        70  83  65  87  67 /  80  80  10  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Reagan

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 23, 5:18 AM CDT, 11 hours 11 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
518 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-241030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
518 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe, mainly this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain will
be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Rain and storms are possible on Monday, especially mid morning
through early evening. A few storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain as the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 23, 1:52 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
152 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TNZ007-231915-
Robertson TN-
152 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Cross Plains, or 10 miles northeast of
Springfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cross Plains and Orlinda.

LAT...LON 3664 8657 3654 8673 3662 8688 3665 8687
      3665 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 216DEG 17KT 3662 8677

10

Special weather statement, Jun 23, 2:24 PM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
224 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TNZ008-009-232000-
Sumner TN-Macon TN-
224 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SUMNER AND WEST
CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 224 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gallatin, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Westmoreland, Oak Grove, Bledsoe Creek State Park and
Bethpage.

LAT...LON 3664 8626 3658 8612 3649 8622 3648 8624
      3647 8623 3645 8627 3644 8627 3636 8636
      3635 8638 3645 8651 3665 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 215DEG 19KT 3646 8641

10

Special weather statement, Jun 23, 3:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
314 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TNZ009-010-232045-
Clay TN-Macon TN-
314 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lafayette, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Red Boiling Springs, Boles and Bugtussle.

LAT...LON 3662 8556 3650 8581 3642 8595 3643 8607
      3656 8617 3663 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 241DEG 34KT 3653 8599

Shamburger

Special weather statement, Jun 23, 3:47 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TNZ077>079-232130-
Coffee TN-Grundy TN-Warren TN-
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEE...WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Manchester, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Manchester, Morrison, Viola and Summitville.

This includes Interstate 24 near mile marker 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8608 3585 8579 3584 8578 3584 8576
      3579 8562 3566 8561 3539 8593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 220DEG 29KT 3553 8594

Shamburger

Special weather statement, Jun 23, 4:29 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
429 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TNZ010-011-232200-
Pickett TN-Clay TN-
429 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PICKETT AND
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Celina, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Celina, Byrdstown, Wolf River Dock, Huntersville, Dale Hollow Lake,
Static and Ashlock.

LAT...LON 3662 8500 3658 8500 3656 8504 3654 8505
      3652 8508 3651 8522 3654 8527 3652 8530
      3653 8534 3650 8539 3649 8539 3649 8540
      3650 8540 3650 8543 3648 8546 3662 8553
      3663 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 249DEG 26KT 3657 8541

Shamburger

The office that day

Everything else NWS Nashville, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 22, 8:10 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Giles, Lawrence, Wayne	2 hr
Jun 23, 1:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Robertson	23 min
Jun 23, 2:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Sumner	36 min
Jun 23, 3:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Macon	31 min
Jun 23, 3:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Warren	43 min
Jun 23, 5:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Stewart	48 min
Jun 23, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Stewart	35 min
Jun 23, 6:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Houston, Stewart	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Tennessee, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.