Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
223 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon, basically
east of I-65. Some have had some pea-sized hail in the them, but
nothing to get too worked up over. What may need to be watched
closely is the training of these storms dropping quite a bit of rain
over one or two spots. This could lead to some localized flooding.

As the afternoon progresses, it is expected that additional storms
will develop west of I-65. A CAPE maxima of 2000-3000 J/Kg in
this area is the energy storms will have to feed upon. I'm still
watching an outflow boundary north and west of the metro area that
could spark storms, as well as a couple upper level impulses that
may instigate further convection. A lack of deep layer shear will
mitigate a larger severe weather threat, but there will still be
concerns of brief damaging wind gusts and hail, and localized
flooding can't be ruled out with any training storms.

Usually we can say that as the sun sets and we lose the heating of
the day, storms will become less numerous. On the whole, I think
that will be the case, however after midnight, models are fairly
consistent in developing a surface low over NE Arkansas and pushing
it across West and Middle TN before daybreak. In fact, IR
satellite data over the last couple of hours may be hinting at the
development of an MCV over central Arkansas. Either way, the
better shot of precipitation from this will be along and north of
I-40 early Friday morning and while I'm not overly concerned about
severe with this, due to meager shear and the overnight aspect, a
strong wind gusts or two can't be ruled before sunrise.

We'll keep a chance PoP in during the day on Friday, but as we get
into the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning and especially
Saturday, widespread showers and thunderstorms will take over. This
will be due to the main upper level trough pushing a weak surface
low and cold front through the region. Forecast sounding aren't all
that impressive regarding severe storms, so at this point, we'll
just highlight general thunderstorms. One thing to point out, the
12Z NAM does show the potential for some stronger storms south of
I-40 Saturday evening, but it is the outlier. Precipitation,
depending what model you go with, should be east of Middle TN by
midnight Saturday night, but it could be daybreak Sunday morning
before showers pull off the Cumberland Plateau.

Sunday, Monday and most of Tuesday look relatively quiet.
Temperatures will warm back into the mid to upper 80s and this could
be setting the stage for a wet second half of next week, so if
you've got lawn mowing to do, the first half of the week might be
best.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VCTS or TS will remain possible through the afternoon and early
evening with light southerly winds at all terminals. Expect to see
a break in rain activity around 00z to 01z, with the potential
for more RA or TS by 08z to 12z at the TAF sites. VIS and CIGs may
briefly become MVFR/IFR under TS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  82  63  75  57 /  50  40  80  80  50
Clarksville    63  79  61  72  54 /  60  30  80  80  40
Crossville     61  77  60  74  56 /  50  50  60  70  60
Columbia       64  82  63  76  57 /  40  50  70  80  50
Lawrenceburg   65  82  64  77  58 /  40  50  70  80  50
Waverly        63  81  61  73  55 /  50  30  80  80  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Schaper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
504 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
504 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across northwest
Middle Tennessee, and a marginal risk across the rest of Middle
Tennessee, this afternoon into tonight. A few storms with large
hail and damaging winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Friday and Saturday. A few storms each day could be strong, with
small hail and high winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today.

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
136 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TNZ009-029-030-021915-
Trousdale TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
136 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SMITH...SOUTH
CENTRAL MACON AND CENTRAL TROUSDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 136 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hartsville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Hartsville, Pleasant Shade and Dixon Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8608 3639 8621 3657 8601 3642 8585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 232DEG 14KT 3636 8607

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
148 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TNZ031-021915-
Jackson TN-
148 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 148 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Carthage, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesboro and Granville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8579 3629 8584 3642 8581 3645 8569
      3634 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 232DEG 15KT 3630 8582

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
152 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TNZ010-033-021930-
Overton TN-Clay TN-
152 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OVERTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Livingston, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston and Standing Stone State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 8533 3643 8551 3658 8535 3640 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 232DEG 15KT 3639 8541

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
205 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TNZ009-010-031-033-021945-
Overton TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-
205 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OVERTON...JACKSON...
CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 205 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Red Boiling Springs to 8 miles southwest
of Gainesboro. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Celina, Gainesboro, Red Boiling Springs, Moss,
Whitleyville, Dale Hollow Lake and Standing Stone State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 8526 3630 8546 3630 8550 3629 8550
      3626 8577 3655 8588 3662 8572 3661 8550
      3662 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 250DEG 27KT 3650 8585 3629 8577

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
308 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TNZ066-022045-
Cumberland TN-
308 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crossville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Fairfield Glade, Crab Orchard, Lake Tansi, Cumberland
Mountain State Park and Slate Springs.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 314 and 337.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8507 3577 8511 3591 8522 3613 8502
      3591 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 233DEG 20KT 3587 8509

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
318 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TNZ031>033-064-065-022100-
Putnam TN-Overton TN-De Kalb TN-Jackson TN-White TN-
318 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OVERTON...NORTHEASTERN DE
KALB...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN WHITE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Livingston to 8 miles south of Baxter.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, Smithville, Livingston, Algood, Baxter, Hamptons
Crossroads, Bakers Crossroads, Burgess Falls State Park, Rickman,
Cummins Falls State Park and Standing Stone State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 274 and 298.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 8521 3650 8520 3602 8535 3593 8583
      3642 8552 3641 8550 3645 8548 3651 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 246DEG 11KT 3642 8541 3604 8565

13