Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...

As of 300 AM CDT, showers and thunderstorms covered most of Mid
Tn. Possible severe storms had just started to move across the
state line. The warm front had moved in with rising temps and dews
noted along our southern tier of counties. So, as the warm front
continues to lift north, we will see increasing severe potential
coming into our far southern and southeast counties through the
next few hours. This severe risk will lift up the Plateau toward
Crossville, then the severe risk will conclude by 9 or 10 AM CDT.
All modes of severe wx are possible, although the risk looks
slight. Farther north (Nashville and northward), the severe risk
is much lower. We had thought there might be some additional
severe storms after this first batch as a cold front sweeps
across the area today, but this seems much less likely now. The
atmosphere will not have much time to recover from morning rain
before the front arrives. Still, there could be a few
thunderstorms reforming today, especially for the Plateau.
Additionally, winds will be quite gusty as the strong low pressure
system and cold front impact the region. Expect frequent gusts in
the 30 to 40 mph range, with some gusts over 40 mph in our
eastern counties where a wind advisory has been issued.

Tonight will bring decreasing cloudiness with much cooler
temperatures. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s for many
areas. It appears that winds will stay strong enough to prevent
anything more than isolated frost formation around daybreak
Monday.

Monday will be mainly sunny and cooler with highs in the 60s.
Return flow around high pressure will bring a quick warmup into
the 70s for Tuesday. On Wednesday, moisture advection will begin
and the approach of another big low pressure system will bring
increasing rain chances Wednesday night through Thursday. There
will also be potential for some severe thunderstorms Thursday. The
cold front will pass by late Thursday night, but an upper trough
will keep some showers lingering into Friday with cooler
temperatures. Then by next Sunday, the trough will move out and
temperatures will quickly rebound into the 70s again.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A broad area of rain with embedded
thunderstorms is moving across Middle Tennessee early this
morning. Also, significant LLWS can be expected for the next
several hours owing to an unusually strong low-level jet. Look for
TEMPO low ceilings & vsby as these cells move across the mid
state. The back edge of the activity is expected to move through
prior to 12Z, with the exception of CSV, which will be a couple
hours later. Afterwards, there is very little chance of additional
cell development as a dry slot gets pulled into Middle Tennessee
while the surface low moves very close to our north. Look for
winds to increase significantly during the day Sunday before and
after the surface fropa. There may be some MVFR ceilings during
the late afternoon and early evening as occluded front moisture
passes over.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  38  65  48  77 /  80  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    66  35  64  48  76 /  50  10   0   0   0
Crossville     72  37  60  42  75 / 100  40   0   0   0
Columbia       68  36  66  46  76 /  70  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   68  37  65  46  76 /  80  10   0   0   0
Waverly        64  36  66  49  76 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Grundy-Jackson-Macon-
Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-
White-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-150845-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
336 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible early this
morning, mainly over the far south, southeast, and Plateau
counties. This includes areas generally from Pulaski to Manchester
to Crossville. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes
will be possible.

Otherwise, the passage of a cold front will create gusty winds
today. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common, with some gusts over
40 mph. A wind advisory is in place through the day for most
areas northeast of Interstate 24.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe thunderstorms may develop Thursday and Thursday night with
another strong low pressure system and cold front. Damaging winds
will be the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning, then again on
Thursday.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
223 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

TNZ094-095-140800-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
223 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHERN GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 221 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rogersville, Alabama, or 17 miles west of Athens, Alabama, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Elkton, Minor Hill, Goodspring, Prospect and Frankewing.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 11 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3500 8736 3534 8717 3521 8683 3500 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 211DEG 35KT 3489 8726

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
321 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

TNZ059>061-075-095-140900-
Williamson TN-Bedford TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN-
321 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN MAURY...
SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON...NORTHEASTERN GILES AND NORTHWESTERN
BEDFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 320 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Pulaski, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Shelbyville, Lewisburg, Spring Hill, Thompson's Station,
Chapel Hill, Cornersville, Bell Buckle, Lynnville, Culleoka, I-65
East Of Columbia, Rover, Belfast, Deason, Farmington, Unionville and
Frankewing.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3535 8709 3580 8686 3574 8670 3572 8670
      3569 8666 3569 8664 3570 8663 3570 8661
      3558 8630 3536 8655 3537 8658 3536 8660
      3533 8660 3531 8668 3525 8675 3526 8683
      3518 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 207DEG 45KT 3525 8686

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
418 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

TNZ027-028-059-062-140945-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
418 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...EAST CENTRAL WILLIAMSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 418 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nolensville, or 12 miles east of Franklin, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smyrna, La Vergne, Mount Juliet, Nolensville, Walterhill, Rural Hill,
Percy Priest Lake and Triune.

LAT...LON 3581 8665 3591 8675 3620 8656 3601 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0918Z 220DEG 25KT 3592 8662

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

TNZ028-030-062>064-077-141100-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-Coffee TN-Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SMITH...DE KALB...
SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHWESTERN COFFEE...SOUTHEASTERN WILSON
AND CANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 520 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodbury, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithville, Woodbury, Gordonsville, Hickman, Alexandria, Dowelltown,
Liberty, Auburntown, Bradyville, Milton and Readyville.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3620 8595 3594 8566 3565 8627 3591 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 225DEG 38KT 3584 8619

Whitehead