Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
542 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We had only a few showers and an isolated storm in Middle TN this
morning but the atmosphere more than made up for that lack of
action this afternoon. Convection developed rapidly across the
west half of the region around 18Z... with numerous storms and
areas of showers in the midstate at mid afternoon. This early and
widespread development interrupted/lowered the gradient winds and
also sharply decreased the chances for an organized line of strong
storms that was originally planned for around 00Z.

Showers will finish spreading onto the Plateau shortly.
Thereafter, expect the convection to diminish this evening over
the west as the weak front moves into the region...but linger
until 04-06Z in the east.

Expect a needed spell of drier weather from later tonight through
the first part of next week. H5 pattern will feature westerly
winds at first...then become somewhat northwesterly by Tuesday as
a trof passes well to our north.

Wednesday will be very warm and quite windy as an upper level
storm system moves out of the southwest U.S. and toward the
central U.S. Ramped up the rain chances Wednesday night through
at least Thursday. It is days away, but there appears to be some
threat of strong storms Wednesday night and/or Thursday due to
decent instability and low level wind shear. Precip will linger a
bit longer in the east on Friday, otherwise expect drier but much
cooler air Friday and Saturday as temperatures drop to a little
below seasonal norms by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Rain and storms will move out of the terminals shortly at CKV,
BNA, and MQY and later this evening at CSV. Visible satellite
shows mainly clear skies just behind the end of the rain which
means VFR conditions will return quickly this evening. Southerly
winds will shift to the west behind a cold front that will move
through this evening and veer to the WNW by 18z. Expect the gusty
winds to relax a bit behind the front but remain between 5-10
kts through the end of the taf period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......49
AVIATION........Reagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
503 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101115-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
503 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms west of I-65. Most of
the remainder of Middle Tennessee is under a slight risk,
including the Nashville metro area. The peak time for severe
storms will be during the afternoon through early evening. The
primary threat is damaging straight-line winds. Isolated tornadoes
are also possible. Brief flash flooding may occur with the
strongest storms.

Total rainfall today and tonight will average between 1 and 1.5
inches. This will likely cause some rises along rivers which are
already running high.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The next major cold front will sweep across Middle Tennessee
Wednesday night and Thursday. More heavy rain is expected with
this system, and rivers may be affected adversely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

TNZ027-059-062-100000-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-
527 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CST...

At 527 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thompson's Station, or 9 miles south of Franklin, moving northeast at
55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Spring Hill, Nolensville,
Thompson's Station, Antioch, Walterhill, Rural Hill, Percy Priest
Lake and Triune.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 54 and 69.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 57 and 72.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 24 and 46, and between mile
markers 58 and 64.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3598 8635 3573 8683 3581 8698 3616 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 229DEG 46KT 3580 8689

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
546 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

TNZ058-060-093>095-100030-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-
546 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LEWIS...EASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHWESTERN MAURY...LAWRENCE AND WESTERN GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CST...

At 546 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Waynesboro to 10 miles
northwest of Florence, Alabama. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Lawrenceburg, Waynesboro, Mount Pleasant, Loretto,
Collinwood, Summertown, St. Joseph, Ethridge, Henryville, Cypress
Inn, Leoma, Westpoint and Iron City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3501 8790 3547 8776 3566 8699 3500 8719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 264DEG 32KT 3543 8769 3497 8783

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
607 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

TNZ058>061-100045-
Williamson TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-Marshall TN-
607 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEWIS...NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL...MAURY AND SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CST...

At 607 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hampshire, or 12 miles west of Columbia, moving east at 65 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Spring Hill, Mount Pleasant, Thompson's Station, Chapel
Hill, Santa Fe, Hampshire, Williamsport and I-65 East Of Columbia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 39 and 59.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 30 and 36.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3546 8734 3563 8740 3566 8732 3570 8725
      3573 8723 3585 8675 3558 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 253DEG 56KT 3560 8727

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