Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
317 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Small scale MCV expected to continue moving southwestward over the
next few days. However, influences will continue to be felt from
late afternoon into evening hrs across mid state region. No
particular model has a good handle on expected areal coverage thru
this evening, thus went with a blend of models thru this evening,
leaving out the more aggressive NAM/NAM Nest solutions when it
comes to keeping MCV circulation well defined. Just a good amount
of uncertainty here with no real sfc/upper level features of note
other than MCV circulation across our southwest. Best convective
potential thru late afternoon hrs looks to be generally across
locations south of I-40 and west of I-65, with some model
solutions showing a band of shwrs/tstms moving nwd into the
Nashville Metro Area as the evening hrs approach. Thus broke out a
late this afternoon zone grouping which will more than likely
need to be updated as the remainder of the afternoon hrs progress.
A few strong tstms possible with brief heavy rainfall as tstms
will generally be not moving that fast. Latest updated SPC Day
One Convective Outlook as moved marginal risk now well southwest
of mid state region into srn MS. However, that does not mean that
a few strong tstms if not a couple of iso svr tstms or two can
still not happen across the mid state region thru this evening.

As for the rest of the forecast thru Independence Day, if one was
looking for a typical summertime pattern across the mid state
region, one will certainly be in store for the mid state region
from after convection ends this evening thru Independence Day.
Sfc ridging influences stationed off to our east. Upper level
ridging influences prevailing, but enough moisture beneath it
to support mainly iso to sct shwrs/tstms during the afternoon
and evening hrs. Went with a blended model solution here.
If one leans toward the latest GFS solution, that means a little
better chance of shwrs/tstms as Independence Day approaches
as it has upper level ridging influences weakening with a more
swly flow pattern aloft developing versus the latest ECMWF
solution that keeps upper level riding in place. To better
describe the overall wx pattern thru Independence Day, with with
coverage terms instead of probability terms. Otherwise, generally
ptcldy skies are expected thru Independence Day. Overnight lows
and afternoon high temps will continue to be a little above
seasonal normal values thru forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions will be predominant through most of the current TAF
cycle. VCTS will be possible at CKV/BNA/MQY, which could lead to
MVFR conditions if a thunderstorm were to pass directly over the terminal.
Showers/thunderstorms will move out by 03Z areawide, with VFR
conditions overnight. Light winds will become more southerly by
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  90  70  91  72 /  70  40   0  20   0
Clarksville    65  88  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  20  10
Crossville     63  84  64  85  67 /  20  50   0  20  10
Columbia       65  89  69  90  70 /  50  40  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   66  88  70  89  70 /  50  50  10  30  10
Waverly        64  89  70  90  70 /  40  40  10  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........MacDonald

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
856 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
856 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for locations
around and south of the I-40 Corridor and along and west of the
I-24 Corridor mainly this afternoon through the early evening
hours tonight. Primary concern with any strong to severe
thunderstorms that develop will be strong to damaging winds.
Brief, localized flooding is also possible with slow moving
thunderstorms. Pea to marble size hail may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected as of this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
442 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ028-030-064-272230-
Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
442 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMITH...NORTHWESTERN DE KALB AND
SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gordonsville to Watertown. Movement was
northwest at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carthage, Watertown, Gordonsville, Hickman, South Carthage,
Alexandria and Tuckers Crossroads.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 242 and 267.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 8580 3615 8581 3614 8580 3612 8581
      3600 8615 3612 8636 3638 8593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 132DEG 19KT 3615 8593 3607 8613

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
447 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW COOKEVILLE         36.21N  85.57W
06/27/2019                   PUTNAM             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900411

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
510 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ062-075-077-272245-
Rutherford TN-Coffee TN-Bedford TN-
510 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
NORTHWESTERN COFFEE AND EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Manchester, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beechgrove.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 94 and 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8630 3572 8627 3571 8621 3570 8620
      3570 8619 3569 8619 3567 8616 3565 8614
      3555 8622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 189DEG 27KT 3561 8624

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
519 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ008-009-028>031-272300-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Jackson TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
519 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMITH...JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN
SUMNER...NORTHEASTERN WILSON...SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gainesboro to Lebanon. Movement was
northwest at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lebanon, Carthage, Gainesboro, Hartsville, South Carthage,
Tuckers Crossroads, Whitleyville, Dixon Springs, Pleasant Shade,
Bledsoe Creek State Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area and
Granville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near a lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 8569 3637 8654 3611 8632 3631 8555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 137DEG 6KT 3633 8568 3619 8630

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRING HILL             35.74N  86.92W
06/27/2019                   MAURY              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REROUTES ALONG DUPLEX RD DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900412

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
528 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

TNZ028-062-272315-
Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-
528 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Murfreesboro, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Walterhill, Rural Hill, Cedars Of
Lebanon State Park and Lascassas.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 72 and 80.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 52 and 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8622 3581 8625 3582 8649 3607 8655
      3609 8655 3608 8654 3608 8653 3606 8653
      3607 8652 3610 8652
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 165DEG 9KT 3590 8638

Schaper