Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
648 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through the
Ohio River Valley with a few severe thunderstorms to our northeast
near the Mississippi River. As for the main story line of today, we
are keeping an eye on the severe weather potential for this evening.
A severe thunderstorm watch is currently in place for our
northwestern counties, primarily north of I-40 and west of I-24.
This watch is in effect until 9 PM this evening. Current surface
observations show southwesterly flow through the area and around
CAPE values around 1500 J/kg. We are still looking at potentially
two rounds of severe weather this evening with the first round
beginning between 5 PM and 7 PM with another round moving into our
northwestern counties around 8 PM to 10 PM. Our main concerns with
both rounds are damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flooding. PWAT values remain around 1.5 to 2
inches, so rainfall amounts will need to be monitored. Luckily,
storms should be moving fairly quickly, so hopefully we will not
have any storms remain over one area for too long. As always, hail
and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Any severe
weather will move out of the area by early tomorrow morning. A few
lingering showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for
tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will finally begin to move out
of the area into tomorrow afternoon and evening. All of this should
finally begin to move out of the area by early tomorrow morning.

On Friday, a very weak ridge will begin to build into the
southeastern region, leading to an increase in temps and dewpoint
temps. We could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
primarily in the afternoon and early evening, but the bigger story
line will be our temperatures beginning Friday and into the weekend.
Highs will creep into the 90s with dewpoint temps in the low to mid
70s. Will have to keep an eye on heat index values over the next few
days, which could creep near 100. Diurnal, afternoon thunderstorms
will remain through the weekend since there will be plenty of
moisture and energy present with our southerly flow. In addition, we
will need to keep an eye on late Saturday night, as a few models
hint at a complex system pushing down into our area. Models are
having a difficult time handling timing and strength, so will just
mention for now.

Into next week, that weak ridge will begin to break down as an upper-
level low moves through the Ohio River Valley. This will bring the
potential additional showers and thunderstorms through the area.
Highs should drop a few degrees next week though.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The next 12 to 16 hours will bring intermittent thunderstorms and
showers to all sites. Some storms may be strong or severe and will
bring strong winds, reduced visibilities, and low cigs to sites as
they pass by. There will be some periods of MVFR to VFR
conditions between waves of storms. Thursday will bring improving
conditions as a final wave of scattered storms sweeps through the
area and off the Plateau by early afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......MacDonald
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
516 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-201030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
516 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are possible this
evening into early Thursday morning. Damaging winds will be the
main concern, along with hail and an isolated tornado. Heavy
downpours may also lead to minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe storms are possible north of I-40 late Friday into
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening.

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
723 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ027-059-200100-
Williamson TN-Davidson TN-
723 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON AND NORTH
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 722 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bellevue, or 8 miles southwest of Nashville, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Nashville, Brentwood, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade,
Lakewood, Hermitage, Bellevue, Antioch, Old Hickory, Berry Hill,
Bells Bend and Percy Priest Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 194 and 222.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 71 and 88.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 47 and 62.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3624 8660 3609 8653 3609 8655 3603 8658
      3595 8696 3612 8701 3613 8700 3615 8699
      3626 8665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 250DEG 29KT 3609 8689

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
727 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ026-027-059-200100-
Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
727 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairview, or 13 miles northwest of Franklin, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kingston Springs, Pegram, Fairview and Natchez Trace At Highway 96.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 183 and 193.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3592 8717 3609 8717 3612 8701 3595 8696
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 250DEG 29KT 3603 8705

Shamburger

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
728 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW HENDERSONVILLE     36.31N  86.63W
06/19/2019                   SUMNER             TN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINE. TRANFORMER FELL AND DAMAGED 2
            CARS NORTH OF HENDERSONVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900286

BW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
759 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREEN HILLS             36.10N  86.82W
06/19/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   PUBLIC

            FIREWORKS TENT THROWN NEAR HILLSBORO HS

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900287

UNGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
817 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREEN HILLS             36.10N  86.82W
06/19/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED IN DUNCANWOOD SUBDIVISION

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900288

UNGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
818 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ059>061-200200-
Williamson TN-Maury TN-Marshall TN-
818 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...CENTRAL
MAURY AND SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nolensville to Spring Hill. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Spring Hill, Chapel Hill, Santa Fe, Williamsport, I-65 East
Of Columbia and Farmington.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 38 and 54.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3572 8670 3545 8669 3564 8724 3585 8721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 300DEG 20KT 3588 8669 3572 8703

Shamburger