Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
146 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...

If you were feeling like we needed some rain in Middle TN, today has
brought you everything you were wishing for. Actually, starting last
night, a large, west to east swath of area north of I-40 ended up
with 2-3 inches of rainfall. This acted to prime the pump for this
afternoon and this evening as we're still expecting another 1-3
inches across Middle TN, including the same area that got the rain
last night. For this reason, we issued a Flash Flood Watch this
morning and it'll run through midnight for basically the northern
half of the mid-state. As some of this flood threat will be after
sunset, please keep in mind Turn Around Don't Drown. If you
encounter water across roadways, don't try to drive through it. You
never know if the road is washed out.

The rain isn't the only thing we'll have to deal with this
afternoon/evening. As the cold front approaches from the west,
models continue to indicate instability will increase across our
southwest. Areas south of I-40 and west of I-65 will carry a strong
to severe thunderstorm threat until 8 or 9 pm this evening. Wind
profiles suggest a QLCS-type line of showers and thunderstorms in
this time frame, where the main concern will be damaging straight
line winds, with a low tornado threat. In fact, this line has
already started to come together and it should reach our southwest
counties in the 330-430 pm time frame. It's important to remember
Severe Thunderstorms can be just as damaging as Tornadoes. If you
go under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, treat it the same way you
would treat a Tornado Warning and take shelter!

Storms should move east of I-65 in the 8-10 pm time frame and with
the sun having set several hours before this, instabilities should
fall off enough to significantly reduce the severe weather threat.
That said, thunderstorms will still be possible from 9 to around
midnight on the Cumberland Plateau.

Even with storms off the Plateau, lingering light rain is still
possible. I know there's been talk of the white stuff on the
backside of this front, but I really don't think the cold air is
going to get here in time so I'm going to keep it out of the
forecast.

After early tomorrow morning, it's going to be quiet. We will fall
into the 20s Wednesday and Thursday morning, but it'll be dry.
Models continue to show some light rain Friday night, but there are
still significant model differences so will maintain a slight chance
PoP into Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Low cigs at all terminals throughout the taf period. Showers and
storms will push east this afternoon in a few waves. Expect
periodic IFR conditions as rain and storms impact terminals
throughout the afternoon and early evening. CSV will see most of
its precip and a few storms from 02z to 10z. Some storms will
contain gusty winds. After precip exits, cigs are expected to
remain low through Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      38  42  26  42  24 / 100  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    35  39  24  39  23 / 100  10   0   0   0
Crossville     42  42  22  37  21 / 100  20   0   0   0
Columbia       38  43  24  44  23 / 100  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   40  43  25  44  24 / 100  10   0   0   0
Waverly        35  40  24  40  25 / 100  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-
Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
134 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-171945-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
134 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will affect Middle Tennessee
this afternoon and into the evening ahead of a strong cold front.
Some of these storms may be strong to severe, mainly south of
I-40 and west of I-65. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
threat. There is also the potential for flooding, especially in
areas that experience multiple heavy showers and storms. A Flash
Flood Watch has been issue for portions of Middle TN.

Thunderstorms should exit the Plateau prior to midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this evening.

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
118 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

TNZ006-007-025>027-161945-
Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
118 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHEASTERN DICKSON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...CHEATHAM AND WESTERN
ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CST...

At 118 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Clarksville to 10 miles
north of Dickson. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Ashland City, Clarksville, Coopertown, Joelton, Pleasant
View, Adams, Cedar Hill, Cheatham Dam, Beaman Park and Whites Creek.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 12 and 37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8698 3648 8683 3625 8683 3621 8739
      3633 8735 3647 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 234DEG 37KT 3645 8724 3634 8725 3623 8737

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
146 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

TNZ007-008-027-162015-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Sumner TN-
146 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DAVIDSON...CENTRAL
SUMNER AND EASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

At 145 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Springfield to near Greenbrier to near
Joelton. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Springfield, Goodlettsville, White House, Millersville,
Greenbrier, Ridgetop, Cross Plains, Portland, Orlinda, Mitchellville,
Oak Grove and Cottontown.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 101 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8636 3656 8633 3637 8641 3636 8691
      3638 8691 3647 8685 3657 8681 3665 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 240DEG 42KT 3656 8680 3645 8682 3638 8689

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
340 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

TNZ058-060-093>095-162215-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-
340 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS...EAST CENTRAL
WAYNE...NORTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN MAURY AND NORTHWESTERN GILES
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CST...

At 340 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Collinwood to near
Lawrenceburg. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Summertown, Ethridge, Lynnville and Henryville.

LAT...LON 3525 8772 3552 8746 3550 8718 3543 8697
      3542 8696 3542 8694 3541 8694 3541 8692
      3538 8693 3515 8740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 230DEG 43KT 3525 8767 3519 8741

Schaper

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