Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
225 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The main wx story continues to be hot and humid conditions
through this work week. Heat index values will top out around 100
each afternoon, except low to mid 90s Plateau.

A large upper level ridge will continue to be centered over the
southeast and Tn Valley through Friday. This pattern will keep
high temperatures running around 10 degrees above normal. Although
it will be quite humid, the humidity will not be as oppressive as
earlier this summer, so overnight lows will drop to tolerable
levels.

A pocket of moisture rotating around the high pressure has already
started to produce a couple of showers this afternoon. We will
continue to see a few showers or brief storms popping up through
the rest of the afternoon and early evening as deeper moisture
comes in from the southwest accompanied by a weak disturbance.
Subsidence under the ridge will keep the activity from becoming
very strong or widespread, so we should not expect any real relief
from the dry pattern that has developed over the past couple of
weeks.

Temperatures have over-achieved a little today with BNA reaching
95 by Noon. Wednesday temps may be a degree or 2 lower with more
mid and high level clouds overhead. The small chance for a shower
or thunderstorm will persist Wednesday, especially across the
Plateau.

Thursday looks like the hottest day in terms of temperature and
heat index. Still, it looks like we will stay below the heat
advisory thresholds.

The ridge and its heat will back off some this weekend. Even so,
temperatures will stay above normal. Chances for scattered showers
and storms will increase.

Looking ahead to next week, there is some hope for more
widespread rainfall. The GFS has been showing a surge of tropical
moisture coming up from the Gulf into Mid Tn for Monday. The Euro
has kept the wave farther southwest, but the latest model run
looks closer to the GFS trends. It is too soon to count on any of
these varied and inconsistent solutions, so we will keep extended
pops in the "chance" range. But rain chances for early next week
could certainly climb if the GFS trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Conditions will be VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
southerly between 5-8 kts this afternoon before calming below 5
kts after 11/01z. High resolution models are developing some
afternoon thunderstorms with development favoring areas closer to
CSV and perhaps MQY/BNA. Coverage is expected to be isolated so
chances of impacting a terminal are too low to be included in the
taf.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Afternoon highs this week will be pushing records that haven't
been seen in quite some time. Here are the record highs for the
Nashville Airport:

Date             Record High (year set)
September 10th         99 (1887)
September 11th        100 (1983)
September 12th         96 (1939)
September 13th         97 (1980)

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Reagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
941 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-111445-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
941 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

TNZ028-102245-
Wilson TN-
512 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WILSON COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rural Hill, or 10 miles southwest of Lebanon, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Rural Hill and Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 230 and 232.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 67 and 74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Brief heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 8641 3612 8633 3606 8645 3607 8647
      3611 8653 3613 8653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 232DEG 13KT 3611 8646

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLD HICKORY             36.26N  86.65W
09/10/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN NEAR HADLEY AND 16TH

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900542

ROSE

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