Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
408 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Broke out a late this afternoon grouping in zone forecast product
again for iso shwrs/tstms across mid state region. Best
initialized and preferred latest NAMNest/HRRR solution showing
area of convection across Southern Ohio River Valley around
21Z(4 PM CDT) moving into mid state region late this afternoon
into evening hrs tonight. SPC as placed much of mid state region
in a marginal risk for svr tstms during this time period, with
iso wind damage reports noted. As this convection moves into mid
state region as night time hours progress, it will weaken.
Iso shwrs/tstms should continue across Cumberland Plateau Region
overnight, but areas to the west should experience an end to any
shwrs/tstms by the late evening hrs. Overnight lows will continue
to be mild tonight, i.e. a few degrees above seasonal normal
values. Overnight lows will range in the low to mid 70s, upper
60s Cumberland Plateau Region.

Conditions will be similar on Wed as well as what has been
experienced this afternoon but it continues to look like low level
moisture will be slightly more plentiful and contribution from
upper support also slightly more favorable. However any deep layer
moisture should be limited. Thus looking for another round of
iso/sct shwrs/tstms, especially during afternoon/evening hrs.

Thu, and especially Fri, it continues to look like best days this
week for possibility of sct/numerous shwrs/tstms. Upper level
ridging breaks down and will allow weak upper troughing along
with several weak upper level disturbances within its flow to
transverse mid state region. Ahead of a sfc boundary that is
expected to approach mid state region by Fri morning, and
eventually slowly progress into mid state region as Fri
progresses, will be amble deep layer moisture that will aid in
convective development across our area.

Differences continue to be noted between latest ECMWF/GFS model
solutions for upcoming weekend into first part of next week. As
previously mentioned yesterday afternoon and continues to the
same model trend this afternoon, sfc/low level ridging influences
a little bit stronger in latest ECMWF model solution. Latest GFS
model solution continues to keep deep layer moisture across mid
state region. Have generally trended to the more drier ECMWF
solutions as it seems a bit more realistic. However, will continue
a mention generally sct shwrs/tstms during daylight and iso
shwrs/tstms during nighttime hrs as preferred latest ECWMF
solution depicting a quasi upper level summertime pattern to be
place across mid state region with sfc boundary that had
previously pushed south of mid state region by just after
daybreak on Sat morning looks to remain within the vcnty of
at least western portions of mid state region thru first
part of next work week.

Heat and humidity will continue for at least one more day, with a
bit of a break in the heat by the later portions of work week.
Highest temps/dewpoints will continue to be across western
locations on Wed. Maximum heat index values during afternoon hrs
on Wed will be around 100 degrees for locations generally around
and west of the I-65 Corridor. Afternoon highs on Wed will range
in the low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 degrees Cumberland
Plateau Region. A transition to a more seasonal, if not a few
degrees below seasonal high temps, pattern is expected as later
half of work week into the first part of next work week
progresses. Overnight lows will once again be mild on Wed night,
but will also start a slow cooling trend to eventually around or
even slightly below seasonal normal values by first part of next
work week too.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Isolated -SHRA have begun popping up west of BNA and north of CSV,
with VCSH at all airports this afternoon. Large complex of TSRA
across Illinois will move southeast and weaken as it moves across
all airports this evening, with -SHRA/VCTS. Precip should be out
of terminals by 03-05Z. Light south to west winds this afternoon
will become northwest with convection this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  94  73  89  72 /  70  40  40  60  60
Clarksville    72  93  71  87  70 /  90  50  40  60  60
Crossville     69  85  66  84  66 /  70  40  50  70  60
Columbia       73  93  72  89  71 /  80  40  40  60  40
Lawrenceburg   72  92  71  88  71 /  40  40  40  60  40
Waverly        73  92  72  88  71 /  90  40  40  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Perry-Stewart-Wayne.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1203 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1203 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Excessive heat is likely for locations approaching the Tennessee
River Valley and across southwestern portions of the mid state
this afternoon as maximum heat indices values approach 107
degrees. For locations west of the Cumberland Plateau Region,
maximum afternoon heat index values are expected to range
between 100-105 degrees.

Some strong thunderstorms, along with a few severe thunderstorms,
will be possible this afternoon and evening mainly for locations
around and north of I-40. With any strong to severe thunderstorms
that do develop, strong to damaging wind gusts will be the main
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Maximum afternoon heat index values Wednesday afternoon will be
around 100 degrees for locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may possibly be needed this afternoon and
evening.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 Inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE EAST NASHVILLE    36.18N  86.74W
08/20/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 10 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLWON DOWN IN THE LOCKLAND
            SPRINGS COMMUNITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900532

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE EAST NASHVILLE     36.15N  86.73W
08/20/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED TO A BUSINESS WITH PART OF A ROOF
            BLOWN ONTO LEBANON PIKE.

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE EAST NASHVILLE    36.18N  86.74W
08/20/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 10 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLWON DOWN IN THE LOCKLAND
            SPRINGS COMMUNITY.

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E EAST NASHVILLE      36.17N  86.72W
08/20/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            NUMEROUS LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN IN AND AROUND SHELBY
            PARK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900531 OHX1900532 OHX1900533

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
408 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW EAST NASHVILLE    36.19N  86.77W
08/20/2019                   DAVIDSON           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            POWER LINES WERE KNOCKED DOWN AND A POWER POLE WAS
            SNAPPED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF DOUGLAS AND STAINBACK
            IN EAST NASHVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900534

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
427 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

TNZ005-006-023-202200-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
427 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHEASTERN STEWART AND EASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southwest of Fort Campbell North to
near Erin. Movement was north at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Erin, Cumberland City, Palmyra and Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 8758 3625 8773 3620 8758 3654 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 194DEG 5KT 3650 8754 3628 8764

13

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