Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Radar imagery this afternoon shows a few showers have popped up
in the Upper Cumberland and along the Tennessee River, with
visible satellite indicated a few other towering cumulus which may
develop into showers shortly. Expecting this isolated activity to
continue through the afternoon hours, and have expanded slight
chance pops to the entire area through 00Z. By this evening, a
fairly potent shortwave trough axis and associated weak surface
front will shift southeastward out of the Midwest towards
Tennessee. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already
forming along this boundary across eastern Missouri and southern
Illinois, and this activity will continue southeastward across our
area mainly between 03Z to 12Z per all guidance. Latest HRRR and
CONSShort model runs are pinging on the highest pops tonight
being over the northeast half of our area roughly along and east
of I-24, and have kept pops above guidance in the high chance and
likely categories - especially across our eastern counties. HREF
severe guidance indicates there is at least some potential for a
few strong to maybe even a severe storm or two with the activity
this evening, mainly across our far northern counties, so cannot
rule out a warning or two with damaging winds the main threat.
Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as storm
motions will only be on the order of 20 to 30 mph.

Tonight's showers and storms are expected to move out of our
forecast area by Wednesday morning, with the afternoon likely dry
and a bit cooler due to the morning precip and cloud cover.
Precip chances ramp back up Thursday and especially Friday as a
decent cold front for early August shifts southward into Middle
Tennessee. Cloud cover and fairly widespread precip coverage will
keep highs a few degrees cooler on Friday. Airmass behind the
front will be a tad cooler but significantly drier and less humid,
and low pops shown on the models for Saturday are likely too
high. Therefore at least the first half of the upcoming weekend
will likely be quite nice for early August. From Sunday onward,
12Z models differ with Euro remaining dry and heating us up quite
a bit due to a building upper ridge over Texas, while the GFS
keeps us in northwest flow with occasional rounds of showers and
storms and temperatures near normal. Will keep low pops and near
normal temps going for now until better consensus emerges in the
global models.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this evening
through early overnight hours. Have in VCTS but also tempo groups
for best timing chances per short term models for each terminal.
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis will be possible with stronger showers and
storms should they pass over terminals. Fog will be possible as
well overnight, along with some lingering light showers, but
expecting VFR conditions after sunrise and during the day
Wednesday with westerly/northwesterly winds around 10 knots with
gusts to around 15 knots.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........Barnwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
202 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071915-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
202 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
Kentucky and move southeastward across the area this evening into
tonight. A few storms could be strong or possibly severe, with
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
714 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

TNZ005>007-023-026-070100-
Stewart TN-Robertson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
714 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY...STEWART...NORTHERN
CHEATHAM...HOUSTON AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elkton to 9 miles south of Canton.
Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Springfield, Dover, Erin, White House, Millersville,
Greenbrier, Coopertown, Ridgetop, Cross Plains, Tennessee Ridge, Big
Rock, Pleasant View, Orlinda, Adams, Cedar Hill, Cumberland City,
Palmyra, Houston County Airport and Land Between The Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3665 8659 3663 8656
      3641 8669 3642 8675 3637 8679 3639 8691
      3636 8691 3631 8731 3634 8751 3629 8752
      3624 8795 3631 8796 3645 8806 3656 8803
      3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 306DEG 42KT 3684 8713 3667 8797

Barnwell

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