Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
626 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We're in a bit of a lull here waiting for more widespread convection
to begin. A couple of storms are on the Cumberland Plateau at
forecast time, but these should move off the Plateau in less than an
hour and our focus will then shift to our northwest counties. A few
storms have popped up in Montgomery and Robertson counties, but I
think the main development is still behind these storms, as the
front is back in the Paducah area.

It still looks like all of the necessary ingredients are in place
for damaging wind gusts with storms that develop this afternoon and
evening. Surface based CAPE values in excess of 5000 J/Kg are
blanketing areas west of I-65, downdraft CAPEs are around 1200 J/Kg,
mid-level lapse rates are good (~7.0 degrees/Km) and bulk shear
values of 25-30 kts are being seen, too. Not off the chart, but with
the instability values in place, it's not going to require a whole
lot of shear to help organize at least a couple of updrafts long
enough to warrant several warnings late this afternoon and evening.
PW values are also off the charts, obviously. This morning's OHX
sounding was showing just over 2.0 inches and latest LAPS sounding
have increased those numbers to 2.16 inches in the Metro area. Storm
motions are just high enough so I'm not overly concerned about
rainfall, but these storms will be efficient rainmakers, so some
localized flooding isn't out of the question in areas that typically
see poor drainage. You know who you are.

Most of the storm activity will push south of I-40 for the evening
hours and should be falling apart prior to the midnight hour and
once it ends, that's going to be it in the rain department for
several days. Temperatures will fall back towards normals for this
time of the year and drier air will help those 90-ish afternoon
temperatures feel more bearable. The dry air will also make a couple
of evening feel much cooler, too.

As we get into the last half of the workweek and into Saturday, the
upper level pattern should shift and become more southwesterly. This
will help temperatures rebound back into the mid-90s once again for
the weekend. Dew points will also be on the rise and Sunday night,
precipitation returns to the forecast. The first half of next week
could be wet, but at least we should be dry most of this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have moved off to the south
and east, but a few will impact KMQY and KCSV for the next hour or
so. Otherwise, chances for fog will move in tonight, especially
for KCSV where IFR fog or even LIFR fog will be possible. By mid
morning, expect VFR conditions with northwesterly winds around 10
knots gusting to 15 knots or so during the day Wednesday.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-
Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Barnwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
501 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-141000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
501 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect west of the Cumberland Plateau
today. A dangerous combination of heat and humidity is expected
this afternoon with heat index values reaching 105 to 109 degrees.
Heat safety precautions are advised for any outdoor activities.

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
to develop across southern Kentucky this afternoon, then spread
southeastward across all of Middle Tennessee from late afternoon
into the evening. Damaging winds are the main threat with these
storms, with heavy rainfall and localized flooding also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for this afternoon and evening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
653 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 E ETHRIDGE            35.33N  87.18W
08/13/2019                   GILES              TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TSPOTTER REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON RHEA BRANCH RD. IN
            CAMPBELLSVILLE.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...FATALITIES...INJURIES

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900507

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW SMYRNA            35.93N  86.56W
08/13/2019                   RUTHERFORD         TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN NEAR STEWART'S CREEK SCHOOL. ROCKY FORK RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900508

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 W SHELBYVILLE        35.47N  86.61W
08/13/2019                   BEDFORD            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES REPORTED DOWN OVER CAMP ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1900509

CM