Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
738 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

I'd like to say we're going to be in for a quiet evening, but it
just doesn't look like it. On top of scattered showers and
thunderstorms that have developed over our southwestern counties,
an MCS-like system over SE Missouri continues to head this way.
I'm ball parking it's arrival in the 9-10 pm hour for Land
between the Lakes. A couple things of note with this complex of
storms: it seems to be riding a instability gradient that
stretches from far western KY southeastward into our western
counties. I believe this is the trajectory we can look for over
the next several hours as steering winds would also coincide with
this path. KPAH radar has shown some decent velocities over the
last hour, including 40-50 kts, with a few higher pixels. Latest
hi-res guidance shows these storms losing what organization they
have over the next several hours and I can't disagree with this
thinking. With no synoptic support to speak of and the loss of
daytime heating, they should begin to wane. However, MCS
structures can make their own environment to perpetuate longevity.
So I expect a few wind gusts west of I-65 and north of I-40 in
the 40 mph range once they break into Middle TN. They should
weaken further as they approach the I-65 corridor, but we'll have
to monitor them.

Of course, the big story of the forecast is the warmup in store
over the next couple of days. It still looks like mid-state Heat
Index values should remain in the 100-105 range, but that's
nothing to sneeze at. If there was a "miserable meter", it'll be
pegged out the next few days. Please take precautions if you have
to be outside the next few afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A complex of storms in eastern Missouri is expected to ride
southeast and possibly impact CKV, BNA, and MQY overnight. There
are still questions how long the complex can hold together so only
mentioned VCSH at CSV. There is ample moisture in the low levels
for low ceilings and BR at CSV. Storms could complicate any fog
development. After mid morning, can't rule out a few storms around
the area, but confidence isn't high enough to leave in the tafs.
Winds will generally be out of the west between 5-10 kts for the
forecast.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Reagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1115 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181615-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1115 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A couple of strong storms could produce brief gusty winds and
localized flooding this afternoon and evening. The greatest chance
for thunderstorms will be near the Alabama border and across the
Cumberland Plateau.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hot and humid conditions are expected Thursday through the
weekend. Heat index values will exceed 100 at times, and could
reach 105 degrees in some spots. The Cumberland Plateau will have
peak heat index values in the 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
807 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

TNZ056-180130-
Perry TN-
807 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Parsons, or 10 miles northwest of Linden, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Linden, Lobelville and Mousetail Landing State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8802 3568 8802 3569 8803 3572 8804
      3577 8799 3581 8797 3582 8796 3569 8774
      3566 8774 3563 8769 3546 8791 3561 8804
      3562 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 316DEG 9KT 3571 8798

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
906 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

TNZ057-058-180245-
Hickman TN-Lewis TN-
906 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEWIS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 905 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Centerville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Centerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 8743 3571 8725 3570 8726 3570 8730
      3566 8732 3566 8734 3565 8733 3564 8733
      3562 8735 3560 8736 3558 8734 3557 8744
      3567 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 313DEG 8KT 3569 8745

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1026 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

TNZ023>025-057-180400-
Hickman TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Houston TN-
1026 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...EASTERN HOUSTON...
NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND NORTHWESTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of McEwen, or 8 miles southeast of Erin, moving southeast
at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, White Bluff, McEwen, Burns, Charlotte, Vanleer, Slayden and
Pinewood.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 154 and 172.

LAT...LON 3635 8759 3634 8759 3634 8757 3615 8716
      3614 8717 3583 8759 3619 8777
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 312DEG 32KT 3622 8762

27