Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We had a mix of mostly clouds with some sun this afternoon with
just an isolated shower or two. Mid afternoon temps were "only"
in the 80s across much of the region, which was a small but
welcome break from yesterday's mid 90s. Clouds, showers and storms
will keep a lid on max temps again for the next 3 days. Don't
worry, though, as those 90s will be back by Thursday...along with
some pretty high dewpoints.

The first half of the forecast is based on the track and impacts
of TS Barry. Barry's center was over northwest LA late this
afternoon and will move north through AR tonight and Monday, then
take a more NE track on Tuesday. By Wednesday, Barry's remnants
should be an open trough that will pass through our region. The
GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF with the trough's exit from
our area on Wednesday.

Obviously, rain chances will be greater than average tonight
through Wednesday night, especially for western and northern
parts of the mid state Monday/Tuesday...and areawide Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Expect storm total QPF in the 1 to 3 inch range
with the greatest amounts falling in the north and west counties.
Rich tropical moisture could lead to isolated totals over 3
inches. In addition to the heavy rain threat, a few storms could
be strong Monday and again Tuesday as Barry's remnants approach
Middle TN.

Once the upper trough moves out of our region sometime Wednesday,
an upper level ridge will build across the OH Valley Thursday
through next weekend. This will help raise max temps back into the
lower to mid 90s and will combine with a tropically moist
boundary layer to make things pretty uncomfortable. Heat indicies
will probably be in the 100 to 103 range. Thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Rain shield from TD Barry has crept into far western portions of
Middle TN but will struggle to reach much further east overnight
as the system moves more north than east. Therefore kept the TAF
sites dry until Monday morning when scattered showers or a few
storms will develop to the east of the main area of precipitation.
This activity should be fairly scattered in nature and will not be
nearly as widespread as what is currently occurring over western
TN.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Vannozzi
AVIATION........Hawblitzel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
534 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
534 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated storms may become strong as well as cause minor flooding
today into this evening. Stronger storms are most likely across
the southwest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated strong storms and minor flooding remain possible Monday
and Tuesday as well as the remnants of Barry pass.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not likely.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
416 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

TNZ093-142200-
Wayne TN-
416 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Underwood-Petersville, or 15 miles northwest of
Florence, moving north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Collinwood, Cypress Inn and Lutts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8799 3529 8798 3530 8800 3530 8802
      3533 8802 3535 8801 3520 8764 3500 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 187DEG 13KT 3497 8785

Rose