Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
912 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Moderate to occasionally heavy rains continue to stream into
Middle TN this morning. Biggest area of concern is still south of
I-40 and west of I-24 where the bulk of the rain is falling this
morning. To this point, we've been spared any extremely heavy rain
by the fact that we remain north of the warm front, which is still
way down in Central Alabama. This is keeping the instability south
of us along with the convection. However, this is going to be the
biggest concern this evening as the warm front slowly lifts
northward. Convection will be our biggest enemy in this situation
because it means rain rates will quickly increase from what is
0.5-1.0 in/hr (which is close to manageable) to 1.0-2.0 in/hr or
more.

Not much has changed in the overall big picture. This morning's
rainfall in the southwest is only going to serve to exacerbate the
flash flood potential later this afternoon and tonight when the
warm front lifts northward. In the meantime, if any convection
starts, Flash Flood warnings are likely to come out quicker.

This remains a very dangerous situation. If you haven't done it
already, please develop a plan so that you and your loved ones
have higher ground to retreat to if flash flooding begins in your
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Rain will continue to impact terminals for periods through the end
of the taf cycle. There will be breaks in the rain, but chances
will be high enough to keep in the prevailing lines. Thunder was
left out until at least 03z when a heavier band of rain and
storms starts lifting from south to north. Ceilings will be on a
downward trend toward IFR, if not LIFR by this evening. Winds
today will be out of the east between 5-10 kts before switching to
the southeast as a warm front lifts north of the terminals.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
623 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rain is again very likely across Middle TN today and
especially tonight. 2 to 3 inches may fall by Saturday morning
and with the already very soggy ground, at minimum localized
flooding is expected, and widespread flooding is very possible.
The heaviest rain will be in the south today but move over the
I-40 corridor tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional heavy rainfall is likely on Saturday and flash
flooding will be very possible. Folks who live in southwest
portions of Middle TN need to have a plan in place now in case
the need arises to evacuate to higher ground. Please don't take
this lightly. Have somewhere to go at a moment's notice to escape
flood waters.

In addition, some strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening...especially across the southwest. Damaging
straight line winds and a couple tornadoes will be the main threat
with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through Saturday due to the
ongoing flooding potential and the severe potential on Saturday.