Wind Advisory 5, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1246 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

...MODERATE TO MAJOR AND POSSIBLY HISTORIC FLOODING EXPECTED...

Forecast remains on track with heavy rain and moderate to major
flooding on many rivers, and in some case, historic flooding. The
overall threat has not changed, and the flood watch remains in
place. Dense fog also remains an issue this morning, and even into
this afternoon in some locations. Rain changes to snow in northeast
NE by daybreak Thursday, and opted to convert the high wind watch
to a winter storm watch where near blizzard conditions could
occur with blowing snow. High winds still on track for Thursday,
with a high wind watch still in effect for eastern Nebraska.

First round of thunderstorms continues to move through the region,
and has produced up to an inch in some locations. The next round
is beginning to fill in and will continue to move through the
region this morning with additional heavy rain. Still on track to
see a dry slot move into the area this afternoon, and that could
trigger additional thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, with even a
severe threat into southeast NE. And then a 971mb surface low
moves into north central KS by early evening, and could trigger
additional thunderstorms early this evening.

And then, the focus shifts to the winter aspect as surface low
moves into southeast NE, with rain changing to snow on the
northwest side in northeast NE before daybreak. This is also
coincident with  northwest winds around the low to 30 to 40 mph
with gusts up to 60 mph possible. Snow amounts were increased to
the 2-5" range, and have concerns that near blizzard conditions
could develop. Thus issued a winter storm watch for areas
along/northwest of a line from Albion to Wayne, and will probably
have to upgrade this to a winter storm warning at some point. Some
of the models might even suggest higher snowfall totals closer to
6" so we are looking at that. Farther south, along I80, the
precip could end as a rain/snow mix, but no significant
accumulation expected.

Weather winds down Thursday night and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Other than flooding, quiet weather continues Saturday through
Monday. The next weather system moves in next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Mainly IFR and LIFR conditions will continue through early
morning. Conditions will improve briefly this afternoon with a
period of MVFR or even VFR conditions possible especially in the
south. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase again this
evening and tonight and a return to MVFR and IFR conditions. Rain
may mix with snow in northern Nebraska early Thursday morning.
Additionally, wind shear will continue to be a concern through
early morning Thursday. During the day Thursday northwest surface
winds are expected to increase and could gust up to 40 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Numerous flood warnings were issued yesterday, and additional
flooding warnings will be issued this morning. Flooding has begun
across the Nishnabotna River basin in southwest Iowa. Many other
rivers are quickly rising and will reach moderate to major flood
levels over the next 24 hours. We have not verified any ice jams
at this time, but there some concern that some ice action could be
occurring on Ponca Creek near Verdel.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for NEZ032-033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening
     for NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031.

IA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080.

&&

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...HB
HYDROLOGY...DeWald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1203 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-140715-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1203 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous headlines remain in place related to the strong area of
low pressure over western Kansas that will track into eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa through tonight.

The dense fog is gradually lifting today with the combination of
the warm front lifting north and the rain. At times where the
advisory is in place, visibilities of a half a mile or less are
possible.

Numerous flood related headline remain in place due to the ongoing
heavy rain and snow melt. Additional rainfall will continue through
tonight especially for northeast and east central Nebraska and
parts of west central Iowa. Amounts will vary from a third of an
inch to 1.25 inches from this afternoon through Thursday. Widespread
flooding has begun with numerous rivers possibly reaching
moderate to major flood levels. Road are closing due to flooding.
If traveling be sure to check the latest road reports before
heading out.

The dry slot is moving in from the south.  A few strong
thunderstorms will be possible with hail, damaging winds, and the
potential for isolated tornadoes in southeast Nebraska.

Strong winds develop this afternoon in southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa with gusts over 40 mph possible.

Rain changes to snow in northeast Nebraska before daybreak
Thursday, with blowing snow and near blizzard conditions possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Snow continues across northeast Nebraska Thursday, with rain
mixing with or changing to snow elsewhere. Two to five inches of
snow are forecast for northeast Nebraska, with little if any
accumulation down to Interstate 80, and no snow in southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Strong northwest winds also develop
behind a very strong area of low pressure, and high wind watch
remains in effect for portions of eastern Nebraska Thursday.

Moderate to major flooding will continue Thursday into Friday.
Many of the smaller streams will rise and fall quickly with
flooding only lasting a day or two. But some of the larger rivers
will experience flooding conditions for several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. However spotter
are encouraged to report flooding to the National Weather Service.

Zapotocny

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     FLOOD            CRAIG                   41.79N 96.37W
03/13/2019                   BURT               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PARK IN CRAIG IS COMPLETELY UNDER WATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1223 PM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     FLOOD            6 N ARLINGTON           41.54N 96.34W
03/13/2019                   WASHINGTON         NE   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 91 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS BETWEEN
            BLAIR AND NICKERSON DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1224 PM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     FLOOD            2 ENE SWANTON           40.39N 97.05W
03/13/2019                   SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWAN CREEK OUT OF BANKS AND INUNDATING
            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS ACROSS SOUTHERN SALINE
            COUNTY.

1153 AM     FLOOD            8 NW FAIRBURY           40.21N 97.29W
03/13/2019                   JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LITTLE BLUE RIVER OUT OF BANKS IN MANY
            LOCATIONS AND INUNDATING COUNTY ROADS,
            SOUTHERN JEFFERSON CO.

&&

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