Tornado Warning 5, NWS Omaha, NE

096 
WWUS53 KOAX 220045
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
745 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

NEC127-147-220115-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190522T0115Z/
Nemaha NE-Richardson NE-
745 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND NORTHWESTERN RICHARDSON COUNTIES...
    
At 744 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located just south of Dawson, 
or 13 miles northwest of Falls City, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado was located just 
         south of Dawson at 743 PM...moving northeast toward Dawson.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Dawson at 745 PM CDT.
  Stella around 755 PM CDT.
  Shubert around 800 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Dawson
and 7 Miles South Of Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 9594 4014 9601 4038 9594 4032 9565
      4031 9566 4031 9565 4032 9562 4030 9559
      4007 9580
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 203DEG 30KT 4014 9583 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BLB

166 
WWUS53 KOAX 220050
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
750 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

NEC127-147-220115-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190522T0115Z/
Nemaha NE-Richardson NE-
750 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND NORTHWESTERN RICHARDSON COUNTIES...
    
At 749 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Dawson...moving 
toward Stella, or 13 miles northwest of Falls City, moving northeast 
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado near Dawson at 743 
         PM.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Stella around 755 PM CDT.
  Shubert around 800 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Dawson
and 7 Miles South Of Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 9589 4017 9596 4037 9590 4032 9565
      4031 9566 4031 9565 4032 9562 4030 9559
      4010 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 204DEG 31KT 4018 9579 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BLB

414 
WWUS53 KOAX 220056
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
756 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

NEC127-147-220115-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190522T0115Z/
Nemaha NE-Richardson NE-
756 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND NORTHWESTERN RICHARDSON COUNTIES...
    
At 755 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Stella, or 14 miles northwest of Falls City, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. This storm has a history of 
         producing a tornado near Dawson.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will be near Stella at 755 PM CDT...then 
moving over mainly rural areas of southeastern Nemaha and 
northwestern Richardson Counties, including the following 
locations... 7 Miles South Of Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 9587 4022 9594 4037 9590 4032 9565
      4031 9566 4031 9565 4032 9562 4031 9561
      4015 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 203DEG 31KT 4024 9577 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BLB

468 
WWUS53 KOAX 220109
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
809 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

NEC147-220118-
/O.CAN.KOAX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190522T0115Z/
Richardson NE-
809 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN RICHARDSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has  moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4029 9587 4036 9585 4032 9566 4031 9566
      4031 9565 4032 9562 4031 9561 4026 9565
      4026 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 203DEG 30KT 4034 9571 

$$

NEC127-220115-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190522T0115Z/
Nemaha NE-
809 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA COUNTY...
    
At 808 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles north of
Shubert, or 18 miles west of Tarkio, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Richardson county Emergency management confirmed tornado 
         north of Stella in Nemaha county.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...  
  Brownville around 815 PM CDT.
  Peru around 825 PM CDT.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Nemaha County, including the following locations... 7
Miles South Of Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 9587 4036 9585 4032 9566 4031 9566
      4031 9565 4032 9562 4031 9561 4026 9565
      4026 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 203DEG 30KT 4034 9571 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
723 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

WV imagery this afternoon showing a longwave trough with embedded
circulations...one currently lifting into SW KS and the other
centered over the Pacific NW. Surface reflection of the former was
centered over SW KS.

Meanwhile 88D mosaic was showing a large area of precip over WRN
SD/NE panhandle/NW KS with another area over MO streaming northward
into IA.

For tonight, precip will be gradually diminishing from south to
north overnight as the upper low lifts out of western KS this
evening and into the Dakotas by early Wednesday morning. CAMs do
suggest a few cells lifting out of KS into the southern CWA this
evening, but given excessive cloud cover/nil diurnal heating,
chances are very low any will turn severe.

On Wednesday, dry and warmer in part to southwest winds and
increased mixing by afternoon.

Wednesday night models prog low level baroclinic zone setting up
from northern MO into central KS with precip developing along the
boundary. The boundary/precip activity is progged to slowly lift
northward and expand across the CWA on Thursday. Both the NAM and
GFS suggest environmental moisture content will be high with PW
approaching 2 inches by Thursday night. Given strong differential
divergence coupled with stout 315K isentropic upglide and favorable
precip efficiency/deep warm cloud layer, conditions will be quite
favorable for an excessive rainfall event. Dry then the majority
of the CWA on Friday. Portions of southwest IA and southwest NE
though may see some lingering activity mainly in the morning
hours.

A gradual warming trend on tap the next few days. Expect highs in
the mid/upper 60s on Wednesday with mid 60s/low 70s Thursday. On
Friday, highs will top out in the mid/upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

GFS and ECM in agreement precip chances continue through the weekend
into early next week. Flow aloft turns near zonal keeping a surface
boundary meandering through and close to the CWA and the focus for
additional rainfall accumulation.

Warm conditions continue with highs on Thursday in the mid/upper 80s
and mid 80s on Friday. Cooling trend takes place over the weekend
with mid/upper 70s on Saturday and mid 60s/low 70s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Strong TSRA beginning to lift out of NE KS into ERN NE. Expect
convective activity to continue over the next couple hours and
move across all TAF sites. Storms should be weakening then toward
midnight with generally VCSH over the area. Likely that IFR
conditions will prevail at KOFK at least through early Wednesday
morning. KOMA/KLNK though should be improving to VFR shortly
after midnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
434 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

IAZ079-090-NEZ067-068-221145-
Mills-Fremont-Cass-Otoe-
434 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa
and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish through the
evening hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible along
and south of I-80. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
threats.

A flash flood watch remains in effect until early evening for
parts of southeast Nebraska due to wet soils and additional rain
possible.

Minor flooding will continue along the Missouri River from around
Plattsmouth downstream past Rulo.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

More thunderstorms are possible through this holiday weekend and
into early next week.

Minor river flooding will continue along the Missouri River from
around Plattsmouth downstream past Brownville.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through Wednesday.

IAZ043-055-056-069-080-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-
050>053-065-066-078-221145-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Montgomery-Page-Knox-Cedar-
Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-
Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-
Seward-Lancaster-Saline-
434 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish through the
evening hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible along
and south of I-80. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

More thunderstorms are possible through this holiday weekend and
into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through Wednesday.

NEZ088>090-092-221145-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Pawnee-
434 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish through the
evening hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible along
and south of I-80. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

More thunderstorms are possible through this holiday weekend and
into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through Wednesday.

NEZ091-093-221145-
Nemaha-Richardson-
434 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish through the
evening hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible along
and south of I-80. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
threats.

A flash flood watch remains in effect until early evening for
parts of southeast Nebraska due to wet soils and additional
rainfall.

Minor flooding will continue along the Missouri River from around
Plattsmouth downstream past Rulo.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

More thunderstorms are possible through this holiday weekend and
into early next week.

Minor river flooding will continue along the Missouri River from
around Plattsmouth downstream past Brownville.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
635 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

NEZ088>090-092-220015-
Jefferson NE-Gage NE-Pawnee NE-Johnson NE-
635 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
JEFFERSON...PAWNEE AND GAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles north of Morrowville to near
Summerfield. Movement was north at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beatrice, Fairbury, Wymore, Plymouth, Blue Springs, Odell, Diller,
Daykin, Endicott, Filley, Jansen, Barneston, Burchard, Liberty,
Steinauer, Reynolds, Lewiston, Steele City, Virginia and Harbine.

LAT...LON 4001 9737 4035 9736 4032 9618 4000 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 195DEG 31KT 3996 9720 3996 9641

Dergan