Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
636 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Line of convection moving through the area early this morning has
weakened from earlier, but was still producing winds gusts 30 to
40 mph from Omaha southward. This will continue to march eastward
and be out of the area with the next hour. Additional convection
behind the first round has redeveloped across central NE, and this
could still bring a severe threat to areas along/south of I80
through 9-10 am, with both hail and wind. Thus, we coordinated
with SPC earlier in the night to reorient the severe watch that
remains in effect until 15z. Otherwise, the rain moves out by mid
morning, leaving behind dry weather for the late morning and early
afternoon. However, rain chances start to increase again through
the afternoon. Coverage would be pretty spotty, and very light,
and probably just a shower.

There is still a severe threat this evening, generally for
southeast NE and southwest IA, just north of the the surface low
which would be across northeast KS. Meanwhile, an advancing cold
front in northeast NE could also bring a small chance of severe
storms near the NE/SD border, but that threat appears to diminish
by about 9 pm. In between, just some spotty thundershowers are
possible.

For Saturday, a severe weather threat continues in southeast NE
and southwest IA, as a reinforcing surge of low pressure moves
along the a stalled frontal boundary. Spotty showers would be
possible elsewhere Saturday, but the severe weather threat is
pretty low north of I80.

For Saturday night, the next wave moves out of the central
Rockies, renewing nocturnal precipitation chances across the
area, boosting pops back into the likely range. Lingering rain
chances continue into Sunday.

Adding up all of the rain though the weekend, some locations could
pick up 1 to 2 inches, and probably more for portions of southeast
NE and southwest IA that receive multiple heavy rounds of rain.
May eventually need a flash flood watch for some areas, but for
now, will hold off.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

We finally get a chance to dry out Monday through Tuesday. Models
suggest some more spotty nighttime convection Tuesday night but
probably over by daybreak Wednesday. Rain chances return Wednesday
night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Thunderstorms will still impact KLNK/KOMA through 14-15z, then dry
for several hours after. Showers could redevelop at these locations
by 20z, with additional thunderstorms possible by 22/00-06z.
Showers in the vicinity of KOFK for a couple of hours this
morning. Then dry for several more hours until 22/01-03z. VFR
conditions, but becoming MVFR and eventually IFR at KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...DeWald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
540 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-220045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
540 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe storms could still occur this morning for
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, south of a line from David
City in Nebraska to Atlantic in Iowa. Wind gusts up to 60 mph and
hail up to quarter size will be possible. A severe thunderstorm
watch remains in effect until 10 am for these areas.

Otherwise, there is still a slight risk of severe storms this
evening in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, and also in
northeast Nebraska. The severe threat seems lower along the
Interstate 80 corridor.

Flooding will continue along the Missouri River from Plattsmouth
downstream past Rulo through the coming week, and along the
Missouri River above Lewis and Clark Lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A slight risk of severe storms will continue across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa Saturday evening. Otherwise,
additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night with
locally heavy rain possible. Isolated thunderstorms could linger
into Sunday.

Flooding will continue along the Missouri River from Plattsmouth
downstream past Rulo through the coming week, and along the
Missouri River above Lewis and Clark Lake.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the
National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
501 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

IAZ079-080-090-091-211030-
Mills IA-Page IA-Fremont IA-Montgomery IA-
501 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...
MONTGOMERY...EASTERN MILLS AND PAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

At 500 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Essex, or 26 miles north of Tarkio, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Red Oak, Clarinda, Shenandoah, Villisca, Essex, Stanton, Emerson,
Elliott, Coin, College Springs, Shambaugh, Henderson, Braddyville,
Grant, Yorktown, Imogene, Northboro, Coburg, Blanchard and Hepburn.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southwestern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4058 9538 4116 9550 4116 9493 4073 9493
      4073 9491 4057 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 233DEG 30KT 4080 9521

HB

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