Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1249 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

At 3 AM, an upper level trough was pushing through the Northern
Plains and a cold front was moving south near the NE/SD border.
Isolated showers and storms were evident on radar over NE/IA/SD,
with increasing activity near the cold front. Light southerly
winds were ongoing over most of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

The main forecast concern this morning is the potential for
strong/severe thunderstorms today. While a few weaker storms are
possible before noon, the real show looks like it will be this
afternoon/evening as a shortwave drifting through the Northern
Plains and cold front interact with deeper moisture over central
and southern NE/IA. Short range guidance is in good agreement with
the frontal placement and timing, oriented the boundary along or
just north of the Interstate 80 corridor by early afternoon.
Stronger storm initiation looks mostly likely along/ahead of the
front between noon and 3 PM, as the mostly uncapped airmass
reaches convective temperatures. Thunderstorm activity should then
increase in coverage and progress southward through the evening
as the frontal boundary sags southward toward the KS/NE border.
Atmospheric profiles ahead of the front, with 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg
of SBCAPE, steep mid level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km, and around
30 kt of 0 to 6 km shear, certainly suggest a large hail risk.
Damaging winds are also possible with storm motions and front
orientation indicating a potential bowing segments. While the
tornado risk isn't zero, hodograph profiles suggest it is a lesser
concern compared to damaging wind/hail. Areas along and south of
Interstate 80 look to have the greatest potential for
strong/severe thunderstorm activity, and anyone with activities in
the area should pay close attention to the weather during the
afternoon and evening hours.

Generally drier weather tonight behind the front, should give way to
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Monday as a weak
shortwave moves out of Wyoming. Sounding profiles and our
location in the cool sector suggest mainly elevated convection.
The probability of strong storms Monday is low. Rain amounts
through Monday evening look sporadic, and should range from a
trace to 1.50 inches.

Rain, a few thunderstorms and dreary weather will remain the name
of the game as we shift into the middle of the week. The main
weather features will be a deep trough over the Rockies and the
moisture streaming north ahead of it (PW values near 1.5 inches).
Soaking rains are probable Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
trough ejects into the Central Plains. Rain totals Tuesday and
Wednesday could range between 1.00 and 3.00 inches. Limited rises
in area rivers are possible. With all the rain and clouds around,
temperatures will remain cool, with highs running 5 to 10 degrees
below seasonal averages (mid 50s and 60s).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2019

Setting aside a shortwave that could bring a couple showers/
thunderstorms Saturday, it looks like we will dry out Thursday
into next weekend. The coolest weather is expected Thursday with
northerly surface flow (CAA) possibly keeping afternoon highs in
the 50s. Temperatures should warm back into the 60s or 70s over
the weekend. At this time no hazardous weather is expected
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

Radar mosaic this afternoon showing area of SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
pushing EWD across NE along a surface boundary extending from
central NE to N-CNTRL IA. As the surface boundary forges SWD over
the next couple hours, expect line of TSRA to develop and push
through KOMA/KLNK during the late afternoon/evening hours. A few
storms may turn severe affecting both TAF sites. Expect convective
activity to subside though toward mid night. MVFR cigs then
expected to roll into KOFK/KOMA/KLNK around 12z Monday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM...Albright
AVIATION...DEE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
426 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             3 N VALPARAISO          41.12N 96.83W
05/05/2019  E1.25 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   STORM CHASER

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
434 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             CERESCO                 41.06N 96.64W
05/05/2019  E1.25 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
452 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             WAHOO                   41.22N 96.62W
05/05/2019  E1.50 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   PUBLIC

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
457 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             5 NE GARLAND            41.00N 96.92W
05/05/2019  E1.75 INCH       SEWARD             NE   PUBLIC

&&