Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
632 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Pleasant conditions continued across the forecast area today,
despite some lingering cloud cover. At the surface, a cold front lay
draped across the state from south-central through northeast
Nebraska.  A surface low gradually drifted east along the KS/NE
border through the afternoon. Temperatures north of the front, in
northeast NE, topped out in the low to mid 70s, while locations
further southeast of the boundary managed to reach the low to mid
80s. By 2pm, dewpoints had only risen to the low to mid 50s.
Aloft, an upper ridge that had remained over the area through the
morning was gradually being broken down by an approaching
shortwave.

Afternoon radar returns indicated high-based showers trying to
develop, generally in cooler air to the north of the front,
although it appears that precipitation struggled to reach the
ground. A fairly strong cap remained in place over much of the
region, keeping stronger development at bay through the majority
of the day. However, the approaching surface low coupled with
daytime heating may be able to produce convection along the front
capable of breaking through the inversion this evening. General
model consensus continues to hint at storms firing to the
southwest of Columbus around 00Z and tracking northeast. MLCAPE
will be modest, around 500 to 1000 J/Kg this evening. Low level
and mid level lapse rates will be around 7-8 C/km shortly after
00Z, and 0-6 km shear is expected to be around 30 kts. This
combination could produce a few severe storms capable of large
hail and strong winds. But, with strongest convection not expected
until the early evening, the severe threat should be fairly
short- lived with the loss of daytime heating.

Additional scattered sub-severe convection will move across parts of
the forecast area tonight, as the surface low tracks northeast along
the cold front. The majority of the precip should exit the forecast
area by early Monday afternoon, however a few scattered showers
could linger.  Gusty north winds will wrap around behind the
departing disturbance, keeping high temperatures limited to the 50s
and 60s. Tuesday will be a bit warmer, with temperatures rising into
the mid 60s.  High pressure will remain over the region, allowing
dry conditions to prevail through Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

An upper low will track across the southern half of the country
Wednesday through Thursday, keeping us on the edge of northwesterly
zonal flow aloft. A weak disturbance moving through the northern
flow could bring a spotty chance for precip to the region Thursday.
Otherwise, dry weather will continue through much of the week, as
temperatures rise back into the low 70s by Wednesday.  The next
decent chance for precip isn't expected until Friday and Saturday as
slightly warmer air advects into the region ahead of a midlevel
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A cold front will push through the TAF sites overnight at KOFK and
Monday morning for KOMA and KLNK. This evening, scattered
thunderstorms are possible and will continue to develop into more
widespread showers through the overnight hours. With the frontal
passage, winds will switch to the northwest and gust toward 25kts
through the day Monday. In addition, MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are
possible behind the front.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

IAZ043-055-056-069-080-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-
050>053-065-066-078-088>090-092-221445-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Montgomery-Page-Knox-Cedar-
Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-
Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-
Seward-Lancaster-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Pawnee-
740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms this evening and overnight. A
few severe storms are possible through 1 am. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main hazards. A few sub-severe storms
could linger into Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Sunday

The next chance for storms looks to be Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

IAZ079-090-NEZ067-068-091-093-221445-
Mills-Fremont-Cass-Otoe-Nemaha-Richardson-
740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa
and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms this evening and overnight. A
few severe storms are possible through 1 am. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main hazards. A few sub-severe
thunderstorms could linger into Monday morning.

Minor flooding is occurring along the Missouri River from around
Plattsmouth downstream to past Rulo.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Sunday

The next chance for storms looks to be Friday into Saturday.

Minor flooding will continue much of the week along the Missouri
River from around Plattsmouth downstream to past Rulo.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.