Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
514 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Forecast concerns today will be how far north the organized
precipitation will get today, more rain/thunderstorms Friday, rain
changing to snow Friday night and cooler temperatures.

The first 70 degree day since October 27th and it sure felt like
spring Wednesday! It was a bit windy with most gusts 35 to 45 mph,
however the winds did die down as the cold front approached. The
00z sounding mixed out to around 800mb and temperatures across the
forecast area topped out in the 70s. At 3am...the surface cold
front was near Plattsmouth and Red Oak. A few echoes showed up in
the area around 13Z Wednesday morning in southwest Iowa with
spotty showers in Topeka and Pleasant Hill's forecast area around
15Z and thunderstorms 16Z to 18Z. Convection re-ignited Wednesday
evening as the shortwave moved into eastern Iowa/northern Illinois
and southern Wisconsin.

Closed h5 low pressure remains off the West Coast today as lead
troughing moves toward Nevada and a weak shortwave in northeast
Colorado travels across Nebraska into Iowa. Lift is increasing
with this shortwave along with h7 warm air advection and a
strengthening 50kt low level jet in northwest Kansas. Thunderstorms
have started to develop in this area. The h85 jets decreases to
25kts across Kansas by 15Z and then re-develops over parts of
Missouri around 21Z, however the mid-level forcing remains intact.
h85 moisture is pulled northward into south central and southeast
Nebraska this morning. Look for light rain and sprinkles this
morning with increased rain and some thunderstorms later this
morning into the afternoon especially south of I80. Thunderstorm
chances will be higher the closer to the Kansas border along with
higher precipitation amounts. Rain amounts toward I80 would be
less than a tenth of an inch with some half to 1 inch amounts
toward the Kansas border. A little light rain may linger into the
evening with a break in precipitation overnight.

Friday, the next stronger piece of the storm system begins to
move into Wyoming with some light rain Friday. The NAM is more
aggressive with the precipitation for Friday compared to the drier
GFS/EC. Our forecast has mostly a tenth of an inch or less with
higher amounts toward the Kansas border. The wave appears to dig
south Friday night taking the bulk of the precipitation south into
Kansas. With the upper trough, we did include high pops Friday
evening with a tenth or two of qpf with a little snow mixing in
overnight. Any snow appears to be less than an inch. Again, the
NAM is more aggressive with the qpf and the potential for
accumulating snow. Thermal profiles and the strength of the
frontogenesis along with some light phasing with the northern
stream trough will need to be watched where a narrow band of snow
could set up.

Breezy and colder for Saturday.

Highs today should be in the 50s to lower 60s and Friday and
Saturday will only top out in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Surface high pressure over the forecast area Sunday will move
into the Ohio River Valley. March will end light it started, more
like a lion, than a lamb. Another high pressure system moves down
from Canada, however ridging keeps the local area under southwest
surface winds and the front only makes it into South Dakota
Monday before the strengthening south flow keeps it to our north.
Monday through Wednesday the organized precipitation is north of
the forecast area, however ahead of the Wednesday, a few showers
or storms may try to develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites. KLNK may see a few
showers move through this morning and into the early afternoon.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected with northeast
surface winds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Kern

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
925 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

NEZ088-281500-
Jefferson NE-
925 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
1000 AM CDT...

At 924 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fairbury, or 22 miles north of Washington, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairbury, Diller, Endicott, Jansen, Steele City, Harbine, Crystal
Springs Campground, Camp Jefferson and Rock Creek Station State
Historical Park.

LAT...LON 4002 9726 4019 9730 4025 9696 4001 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 250DEG 21KT 4013 9717

MEAD

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