River Flood Warning 2, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

734 
WGUS86 KMTR 171639
FLSMTR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area, CA
839 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio

.Although showers will continue today the heaviest rain has 
passed and the Carmel River is receding. That trend will
continue today into tonight.

CAC053-171709-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190118T0350Z/
/RDRC1.1.ER.190117T1058Z.190117T1200Z.190117T1301Z.NO/
839 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
* At 8 AM Thursday the stage was 7.2 feet
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet

&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.


This will be the last statement on this product unless an update is 
warranted.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
348 AM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Cold front has pushed through the area with scattered
showers developing in the postfrontal unstable airmass. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue on Thursday. A chance of
showers will persist Friday and Saturday across the North Bay with
dry conditions elsewhere. A chance of light rain will return
regionwide on Sunday as a weak front passes through. Dry weather
returns Monday through the rest of next week with mild
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:45 AM PST Thursday...Strong cold front and
atmospheric river have pushed southeast, ending the threat of
heavy rain. A few showers have lingered, mainly across the North
Bay and in the higher coastal terrain. Winds have also decreased
behind the front with gusts up to 40 mph in the higher elevations
and most lower elevations below 20 mph. Scattered showers are
developing in the cool unstable airmass with some embedded
thunderstorms. So far thunderstorms have stayed to our north in
Mendocino County but these may develop further south into the
morning hours. A slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast
through Thursday afternoon. Low freezing levels will support
small hail reaching the ground in thunderstorms which form. Brief
heavy rain is also possible with any storms. Outside of any
thunderstorms which form additional rainfall amounts are expected
to be light, with up to an inch in the North Bay and coastal
mountains, less than a half inch in the North Bay valleys, and
less than a quarter inch elsewhere. Locally higher amounts are
possible where any thunderstorms form.

Small streams have crested with streams in the North
Bay above flood stage gradually dropping. The Napa and Russian
rivers are continuing to rise but are expected to crest early
Thursday and remain below flood stage. A few rivers across the
southern portion of the area continue to be on the rise with a
few rising into minor flood stage. With the heavy rain ended these
should peak early Thursday as well.

An upper level ridge will then build over the area on Friday. This
will push the storm track to our north, keeping most of the area
dry. While the vast majority of the precipitation will fall to our
north, some moisture will make it far enough south to bring a
chance of showers into the North Bay Friday and Saturday. Rainfall
amounts will be very light with less than a quarter inch Fri-Sat.
High temperatures during this time will be warmest across the
southern areas, warming into the mid 60s from San Jose south on
Saturday. Low temperatures will cool somewhat versus the past
couple of nights, but moisture and a mild airmass will keep lows
in the mid 40s to low 50s.

A shortwave trough will swing through the area on Sunday,
bringing a better chance of rain to the area. This system appears
to be rather weak with the surface low remaining well to our north
and only a weak surface pressure gradient setting up over the
area. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with cold air
advection setting up by late Sunday morning, limiting
precipitation production. Cooler air will move in behind the
trough, which will drop high temperatures back into the upper 50s
to around 60.

From MLK Day onward, a high amplitude pattern will develop with
strong ridging along the west coast and a deep trough in the
center of the continent. This will keep the area dry for several
days, with temperatures gradually warming under the ridge, with
highs in the low to mid 60s likely by mid week. Models are in good
agreement about the ridge becoming anchored to the coast through
at least the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:02 PM PST Wednesday...for 06Z TAF package.
Latest surface observations indicate the start of a gradual
decrease in winds speeds at most TAF sites. SFO reported the
highest gust of all TAF sites at 53 kt earlier this evening. The
steady moderate to heavy rain will become more showery over the
next several hours as the cold front pushes through the Bay Area.
These showers are forecast to continue into Thursday morning with
some locally gusty winds persisting at some of the wind-prone
terminals.

Vicinity of KSFO...Strong, gusty southerly winds will gradually
subside at the terminal over the next several hours as the main
frontal passage pushes eastward. Expect the gusts to drop below
Airport Weather Warning criteria (35 kt) sometime around midnight
local time. Rain intensity will also decrease in the coming hours,
though scattered showers will likely continue off/on through
sunrise.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Very brief strong wind are presently
passing through MRY as of the 06Z TAF publication time. Moderate
to heavy rain will accompany these strong winds for another few
hours before transitioning to rain showers. Winds will then
gradually subside from midnight onward.

&&

.BEACHES...as of 04:10 AM PST Wednesday...A strong cold front
will push through the region this afternoon and evening bringing
locally heavy rainfall, strong and gusty winds as well as the
potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. This will
result in hazardous conditions along area beaches. In wake of the
frontal passage, a large and long period westerly swell will
impact the coast Thursday into Friday. Westerly swells of 16 to 24
feet with a period of 17 to 18 seconds will build through the day
Thursday and result in breaking waves of 25 to 30 feet, favored
locations up to or exceeding 40 feet. Thus, a High Surf Advisory
has been issued. These large breaking waves will lead to
increased wave run- up on beaches with waves topping and washing
over large rocks and jetties. These conditions may also produce
localized coastal flooding of vulnerable locations. Use extreme
caution near the surf zone as these large waves will be capable of
sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold
water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an
involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good swimmer.
The surf zone will be very dangerous due to strong currents and
powerful breaking waves. The large swell is forecast to gradually
subside on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:44 AM PST Thursday...Wednesday's powerful
system will continue pushing inland,  allowing for the gale-force
winds to slowly subside through the night. Scattered rain showers
-- locally heavy, at times -- will continue through sunrise
 Thursday. In addition, a very large and long period west swell
 will arrive Thursday morning and persist into Friday. This
 incoming swell will prolong the hazardous sea conditions
 throughout the waters, particularly for small vessels.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Coastal Flood Advisory...CAZ006-505-506-508>510-529-530
             High Surf Warning...CAZ006-505-509-529-530
             SCA...Mry Bay
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 9 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: ST
AVIATION: Rowe
MARINE: RGass

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