River Flood Warning 13, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

121 
WGUS86 KMTR 270621
FLSMTR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area, CA
1020 PM PST Tue Feb 26 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Napa River near St Helena 
  Napa River near Napa 
  Russian River near Healdsburg 
  Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville 

.Prolonged moderate to heavy rain since Monday morning across
the North Bay has resulted in flooding on the Russian River, 
with the Napa River expected to flood soon. Moderate to heavy
rain is forecast to continue across the North Bay until about
4 am Wednesday. Rain will change to showers by sunrise Wednesday.
Additional heavy rain overnight, coupled with previous runoff,
will result in the following flooding:

The Russian River near Healdsburg is forecast to expiernce minor
flooding from late Tuesday evening through mid afternoon Wednesday.

The Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville is currently 
experiencing moderate flooding, and major flooding is forecast
for Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

The Napa River near St Helena is forecast to experience minor to
moderate flooding Tuesday night.

The Napa River near Napa is forecast to experience moderate
flooding from late Tuesday night through early Wednesday afternoon.

Farther to the south, forecast rainfall amounts across the Carmel
River basin have been adjusted downward. Because of lower expected
rainfall amounts, the Carmel River is no longer expected to flood, 
but may reach monitor stage by early Wednesday afternoon. The flood
warning for the Carmel River is cancelled. 


CAC053-270650-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190227T0620Z/
/RDRC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 PM PST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for

  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
  
* At 08PM Tuesday the stage was 4.1 feet
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet
* Forecast to rise to 7.6 feet by early Wednesday afternoon.
  Monitor Stage is 7.5 feet. The river will then likely fall 
  below monitor stage by late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

CAC055-280200-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190228T0200Z/
/SHEC1.3.ER.190227T0556Z.190227T0900Z.190227T1400Z.NR/
1020 PM PST Tue Feb 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for

  The Napa River near St Helena
  
* From late Tuesday evening until Wednesday evening
* At 09PM Tuesday the stage was 16.2 feet
* Minor to moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late Tuesday evening and 
  continue to rise to near 20.1 feet by about 1 am Wednesday. The
  river is then forecast to fall below flood stage by about 6 am
  Wednesday.
* At 16.0 feet...Monitor Stage. 
* At 18.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage. Minor flooding of low lying
  agricultural areas along river begins. Low lying rural residential
  areas immediately adjacent to the river and some secondary roads
  affected.
* At 20.0 feet...Moderate Flood Stage. Moderate flooding of the
  lower portions of Silverado Trail along the reach. Inundation of
  low lying residential areas along the east river bank in the
  vicinity of Pope Street Bridge.  Secondary and many primary roads
  inundated; most major cross roads inundated and unsafe to pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 12265 3865 12262 3849 12239 3843 12244
      3852 12253 3860 12265       

$$

CAC055-280620-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190228T1126Z/
/APCC1.2.ER.190227T0920Z.190227T1800Z.190227T2326Z.NO/
1020 PM PST Tue Feb 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for

  The Napa River near Napa
  
* From early Wednesday morning until late Wednesday night
* At 09PM Tuesday the stage was 24.5 feet
* Moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by about 2 am Wednesday morning 
  and continue to rise to near 27.4 feet by late Wednesday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage by late Wednesday afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Erosion of lowest agricultural areas along river 
  begins.
* At 22.0 feet...Monitor Stage. In the City of Napa, the Napa River 
  Dry Bypass is fully inundated and flow begins to cross McKinstry 
  Street.
* At 24.0 feet...In the City of Napa, flow begins to leave the Napa 
  River channel at Riverpointe (north of Lincoln Avenue).
* At 25.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage. Flooding of lowest parts of towns
  in reach begins.  Inundation of lowest agricultural land in Napa 
  Valley.  Some secondary roads are inundated.  Moderate damage from 
  bank erosion and sediment deposition throughout the reach.
* At 26.0 feet...Moderate Flood Stage. In the City of Napa, flow begins
  to leave the Napa River channel in the South Coombs area (north of 
  Imola Avenue) and the south oxbow (near Taylor Street). Crop losses
  and erosion damage become serious. Moderate flood damage in lower 
  parts of urban areas along the reach. Transportation in the Napa 
  Valley becoming difficult.
* At 27.0 feet...In the City of Napa, moderate flooding begins on the
  east side of Napa River near Milliken Creek Inn.
* At 28.0 feet...Major Flood Stage. In the City of Napa, significant 
  flooding occurs near Lincoln Avenue with some secondary roads 
  inundated. Major flooding of towns within the reach of the gage, 
  especially in Napa.  Inundation of agricultural land and major 
  damage from bank erosion and sediment deposition in Napa Valley.  
  Transportation difficult throughout the Napa Valley.  

&&

LAT...LON 3845 12246 3849 12239 3832 12225 3810 12227
      3814 12239 3834 12237       

$$

CAC097-280620-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190228T1112Z/
/HEAC1.1.ER.190227T0501Z.190227T1100Z.190227T2312Z.NO/
1020 PM PST Tue Feb 26 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for

  The Russian River near Healdsburg
  
* From late Tuesday evening until late Wednesday night
* At 08PM Tuesday the stage was 22.7 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late Tuesday evening and 
  continue to rise to near 25.4 feet by about 4 am Wednesday 
  morning. The river will then fall below flood stage by 
  Wednesday afternoon.
* At 23.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage. Flooding of farm land and banks
  in rural areas  along the reach of the gage will occur.
* At 25.0 feet...Low lying areas south of US 101 begin to have minor   
  flooding.
* At 27.0 feet...Moderate flooding along the reach of the gage will 
  occur. Some secondary roads south of US 101 will have minor to 
  moderate flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 12288 3868 12290 3884 12308 3885 12300
      3863 12273 3848 12286       

$$

CAC097-280620-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GUEC1.3.ER.190226T2356Z.190228T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 PM PST Tue Feb 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for

  The Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville
  
* Until further notice
* At 09PM Tuesday the stage was 35.9 feet
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 46.1 feet by late Wednesday 
  evening. The river is then forecast to slowly recede and finally
  drop below flood stage by late Thursday evening.
* At 29.0 feet...Monitor stage.
* At 32.0 feet...Flood stage. Minor flooding. Lower Mill Street in 
  Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio are expected to 
  flood.
* At 32.5 feet...In Guerneville the intersecton of HWY 116 and Neeley
  Rd is closed. Mays Canyon Rd by the old rodeo grounds is closed.
* At 33.0 feet...In Guerneville the intersection of HWY 116 and Drake
  Rd is closed. In Monte Rio Willow and Alder Streets flood. In 
  Forestville Mirabel trailer park begins to flood.
* At 34.0 feet...In Guerneville flooding begins at Johnsons Resort, 
  Parkers Resort, Creekside Resort and Riverside Park. In Northwood 
  lower Redwood Drive begins to flood.
* At 35.0 feet...Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower 
  Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest 
  sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In 
  Guerneville Sonoma West Inn begins to flood. More extensive 
  flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive
  floods.
* At 36.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Park Resort and Mirabel 
  trailer park flood. In Guerneville Fern Road at HWY 116 floods. 
* At 37.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Road at River Road floods. In
  Guerneville River Road east of Guerneville floods. Mill Street and 
  5th Street flood. In Monte Rio River Blvd east of Monte Rio floods.
* At 38.0 feet...In Duncan Mills Freezeout Road at Moscow Road 
  floods. In Guerneville Park Cazadero Road at HWY 116 floods.
* At 39.0 feet...West of Duncan Mills HWY 116 is closed. In Hacienda 
  River Road floods. In Rio Nido Canyon 7 Road at the miniture golf 
  course floods. In Guerneville the Triple R Resort begins to flood.
* At 40.0 feet...Major flooding is expected along the Russian River.
  In Guerneville travel on River Road becomes very difficult. In
  Northwood upper Redwood Drive floods. In Cazadero Austin Creek Road
  floods.
* At 41.5 feet...In Guerneville, River Road closed. In Monte Rio the
  main intersections flood. Monte Rio Elementary School begins to
  flood.
* At 44.0 feet...In Guerneville HWY 116 west of town closed. Safeway
  floods. In Monte Rio and Guerneville Park the main business sections
  flood. Travel in most areas nearly impossible.
* At 45.0 feet...Disastrous flooding is forecast to occur along the
  lower Russian River. Much of downtown Guerneville will become
  inundated. Many roads will flood making travel nearly impossible
  throughout the reach.
* At 46.0 feet...Disastrous flooding. In Guerneville much of downtown
  floods. The Guerneville post office begins to flood. In Rio Nido, 
  River Road floods.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions. The next statement will
be issued by 3 am Wednesday or sooner as conditions warrant.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
408 PM PST Tue Feb 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...An atmospheric river will continue to bring moderate to
heavy rainfall and flooding concerns to primarily the North Bay
through this afternoon before shifting southward this evening and
overnight. Strong and gusty winds are also expected through
tonight with the potential for downed trees and power outages.
Lingering showers are then expected on Wednesday before
diminishing in coverage Thursday. Generally dry weather is
expected late Thursday into Friday with the next chance of rain
Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:05 PM PST Tuesday...Atmospheric rivers can
be boom to bust. The challenge can be pin pointing the landfall
locations of the atmospheric river. In this case, the stalling
atmospheric river led to a boom was over the North Bay. The bust,
so to speak, was south of the Golden Gate with little to no
rainfall largely in part to rain shadowing. As for the boom,
rainfall totals over the last 24-36 hours are impressive for the
North Bay. Here are a update totals - 12+" Venado, Mt Veeder 8+",
Santa Rosa 4-5", Napa 2-4", Marin Peaks 5-7", SF <0.5", Santa Cruz
<0.5" and a few hundredths to nothing elsewhere. The persistent
and unrelenting rainfall has led to a high impact flooding event
across the North Bay. Stream gauges, river gauges and many ground
truth reports indicated many flooded roadways and even
structures. Flood advisories and warnings have been extended
through at least this afternoon/evening and will likely need to be
extended again. As for the mainstem rivers - focus will be on the
Russian and Napa rivers where flood warnings remain in effect
into Wednesday.

For the rest of this afternoon - radar is finally starting to fill
in south of the Golden Gate. The main driving force is an upstream
shortwave coupled with the entrance of a 130kt jet aloft. Not only
will this additional pulse of moisture give areas that have been
dry some rain, but it will also give areas across the North Bay
additional rain. Expect this activity to increase over the next
few hours. General timeframe of greatest concern across the North
Bay will be 4-10 PM this evening where rainfall rates could
intensify once again compounding any existing flooding concerns.
Rainfall amounts during this time across the North Bay will be
1-2" and 2-4" in the hills. Some models show potential up to
3-5". Areas south of the Golden Gate will finally see the rapid
increase in rain rates after 8-10 PM this evening and more so
overnight,especially southern areas. The rapid increase could lead
to some urban/small stream flooding concerns south of the Golden
Gate. Rainfall totals for south of the Golden Gate will be 0.5-1"
valleys and 2-5" in the higher terrain. Removed the chance for
thunderstorms from the forecast as instability looks less likely,
but any marginal instability that develops could cause an uptick
in rainfall. All said and done North Bay peaks could see 15-20"
rain storm total.

In addition to rainfall there will be concerns the frontal
passage forecast later tonight will bring some rather gusty winds
to the region. Winds will be strongest over the waters, immediate
coast and higher terrain. Gusts 50-60 mph are definitely possible
over the highest peaks. The wind advisory remains in effect and
expanded the advisory to include San Benito County.

Persons reading this discussion should realize the next 12 hours
will be rather dynamic and some of the details/timing may change.
With ongoing flooding concerns and more rain on the way follow
weather.gov/bayarea for the latest information.

By Wednesday winds will gradually decrease and heavy rainfall
will end early from N to S. Scattered showers will continue into
Thursday with some additional rainfall totals. Any additional
rainfall will be of concern.

Brief reprieve Thursday afternoon into Friday before rain chances
return to the Bay Area. Model consensus shows another moisture
plume pushing into the Bay Area Friday night/Saturday morning.
Atmospheric River guidance puts this system much weaker with
IVTs. Wet weather holds into Sunday with some drying late.

Lastly, long range models show more rain on the way Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:08 PM PST Tuesday...Rain heaviest in the
North Bay gradually slides southward this evening impacting all
terminals tonight. Gusty southerly winds continue through early
Wednesday morning with the strongest surface winds expected
tonight. Wind gusts are generally expected between 25 to 35 kt
with isolated locations seeing gusts to 40 kt overnight. Low level
wind shear will remain a concern through early tomorrow morning
for most terminals.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR through tonight, rain occasionally heavy
at times. Gusty winds will continue through the period with the
strongest winds expected overnight. Will look into the possibility
of another airport weather warning (AWW) for winds for later this
evening; winds did pick up last evening/night, but stayed a bit
short of criteria. Low level wind shear remains a concern through
early Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR/MVFR cigs through late tonight, rain
arriving overnight along with gusty southerly surface winds,
especially down the Salinas Valley and along the Monterey
Peninsula coastline. Low level wind shear will remain a concern
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 3:31 PM PST Tuesday...Heavy rain will continue
tonight into Wednesday morning as an atmospheric river gradually
slides south across the coastal waters. Strong and gusty gale
force winds are expected through late tonight across all our
waters including the San Francisco Bay. Winds will ease early
Wednesday morning. Strong winds will generate steep fresh swell
creating hazardous seas conditions, especially for smaller
vessels. Mixed fresh southerly swell with a lighter northwest
swell will continue into mid-week. A longer period northwest
swell is set to arrive mid to late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...Wind Advisory...CAZ006-505-507-509-511-512-517-518-529-530
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ006-508>513-529
             Flood Watch...CAZ505>507
             GLW...SF Bay until 3 AM
             GLW...Mry Bay until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 AM
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 9 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: CW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1059 AM PST TUE FEB 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     FLOOD            3 SSE SONOMA            38.25N 122.44W
02/26/2019                   SONOMA             CA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            8TH ST E IS NOW CLOSED BETWEEN SCHELLVILLE
            RD AND HWY 121/12 FLOODING.

&&

PALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
351 PM PST TUE FEB 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 SSW DEER PARK         38.52N 122.47W
02/26/2019                   NAPA               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROCKS AND MUD ARE BLOCKING LANE ONE ON
            SILVERADO TRAIL.

&&

PALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
354 PM PST TUE FEB 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     FLOOD            3 SSW SOUTH SANTA ROSA  38.37N 122.74W
02/26/2019                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHP REPORTED ROADWAY FLOODING AT MILLBRAE
            AVE AND STONY POINT RD. VEHICLES DRIVING
            THROUGH FLOODED ROAD AND WATER IS RISING.

&&

ROWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
358 PM PST TUE FEB 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 SSW GRATON            38.41N 122.89W
02/26/2019                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUD BLOCKING WESTBOUND LANDS OF CHERRY RIDGE
            JUNCTION GRANDVIEW.

&&

PALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
400 PM PST TUE FEB 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     FLOOD            5 NNW GLEN ELLEN        38.43N 122.56W
02/26/2019                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WESTBOUND SR 12 AT HOFF ROAD ARE FLOODED.

&&

PALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
403 PM PST TUE FEB 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     FLOOD            1 S SOUTH SANTA ROSA    38.39N 122.72W
02/26/2019                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EASTBOUND TODD TO NORTHBOUND STANDISH - ALL
            THE LANES ARE FLOODED.

&&

PALMER