Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Missoula, MT

991 
WWUS85 KMSO 030446
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1046 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

MTZ108-109-030600-
/O.EXP.KMSO.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190803T0500Z/
East Lolo-Bitterroot-
1046 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* Affected area:
   Fire Zone 108 (East Lolo).
   Fire Zone 109 (Bitterroot).


* Lightning has moved out of the area, allowing the warning to
  expire.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
343 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...Little has changed in the overall weather pattern
for today, with western Montana and central Idaho remaining under
the influence of high pressure with southwest flow aloft. Yet
another disturbance in this flow will lead to thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Moisture today isn't expected to get quite
as far north as was seen yesterday, so the main threat for
thunderstorms is expected across southwest Montana and Lemhi
County (generally south of Stevensville). Thunderstorms will be
capable of brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Otherwise,
another day of slightly above normal temperatures is anticipated.
Highs will run in the low to mid 90s for western Montana valleys
and mid 90s to low 100s for lower elevations of north central
Idaho.

As an upper level trough approaches the region Friday, a dry cold
front will move through central Idaho and western Montana. Gusty
westerly winds will accompany the front, and when coupled with hot
and dry conditions, will increase fire danger over the area. In
addition, another round of thunderstorms will develop across Lemhi
County eastward into southwest Montana. The combination of quick
moving storms and a dry sub-cloud layer will reduce the potential
for rainfall to reach the ground. Strong, potentially damaging
outflow winds will be a concern with any storms that develop.

The hot and dry weather pattern with above normal temperatures,
will continue through this weekend, into early next week. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, though they will be
confined to southwestern Montana and along the Continental Divide.
Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main concerns from
any thunderstorms that do develop.

The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms,
doesn't appear to occur until the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon
and evening, primarily across southwest Montana and Lemhi County
in Idaho. Airfields KBTM and KSMN will likely see thunderstorms in
the vicinity between 01/2000z and 02/0100z. Moisture is not
expected to make it quite as far north as was seen on Wednesday,
so at this time it appears KMSO has a low probability of seeing
thunderstorms. Typical threats with thunderstorms are expected,
including brief heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds and frequent
lightning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&