Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
956 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...Previous forecast still mostly on track. Line of
showers and strong to severe storms currently moving through
central KY and middle TN is associated with the shortwave trough
moving in. Latest thinking is that the line of storms will still
be fairly strong by the time it reaches our plateau counties,
roughly 03Z for the northern plateau and 04z for the central
plateau. The strength of line the line depends on if the cold
pool races out ahead of the line or not. Most recent radar data
indicates that it may already be happening. There has also been a
decrease in lightning activity over the past hour which further
supports the weakening of the storms. A warning or two is still
possible by the time the line reaches our area but expect the
weakening trend to slowly continue as these storms draw near as
surface based instability continues to decrease as we get further
into the evening hours.

Made adjustments to hourly POPs, WX, SKY, and QPF to try to
account for incoming showers and storms. New zones already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  84  70  90 /  60  70  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  81  67  86 /  60  70  40  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  81  67  87 /  60  70  30  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  78  63  82 /  50  60  50  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

SR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-202300-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
656 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 /556 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of showers and strong to severe storms may move out of
Middle TN and into portions of our area later this evening,
mainly west of I-75 and north of I-40. If the storms maintain
their strength, some of them could produce large hail and isolated
wind damage. Another round of showers and storms could move
through closer to sunrise but aren't expected to be as strong.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

...Strong to Possibly Severe Storms Thursday Afternoon...
...Another Round of Strong to Severe Storms Possible late Friday
Night and Saturday....

A frontal boundary will move across the area Thursday producing
showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe in the afternoon. The main concern will be hail up to
quarter size, strong and gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

For Friday night, an area of storms is expected to develop across
the Indiana and northern Kentucky state line and then move
southeast into the area Saturday morning. Some of these storms
could be strong to severe producing damaging winds, hail up to
quarter size, and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening and possibly
Saturday. Reports of flash flooding, storm damage, or heavy
rainfall amounts will be appreciated this week.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ012-200330-
Scott TN-
1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

At 1035 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mount Pisgah to Jamestown. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oneida, Huntsville, Helenwood, Winfield, Ketchen, Honey Creek State
Park and Big South Fork National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
east Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3659 8426 3657 8426 3656 8425 3651 8426
      3651 8433 3647 8434 3646 8435 3642 8435
      3639 8431 3639 8433 3634 8433 3638 8469
      3640 8466 3641 8466 3644 8469 3650 8471
      3660 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 275DEG 30KT 3662 8480 3645 8495

mjb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1002 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ082-200400-
Bledsoe TN-
1002 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BLEDSOE COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

At 1002 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles southeast of Sparta to 6 miles south
of Spencer. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Melvine, Fall Creek Falls State Park and Mount Crest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8526 3576 8526 3577 8510 3576 8507
      3577 8504 3575 8503 3577 8494 3576 8492
      3568 8499 3562 8505 3557 8511 3553 8510
      3561 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 277DEG 29KT 3584 8527 3565 8546

mjb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ081-082-098-200415-
Sequatchie TN-Bledsoe TN-Marion TN-
1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEQUATCHIE...SOUTHWESTERN BLEDSOE
AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1029 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Spencer to near
Gruetli-Laager. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dunlap, Pikeville, Signal Mountain, Fairmount, Powells Crossroads,
Cartwright, Griffith Creek, Lone Oak, Palio, Brayton, Cagle, Old
Cumberland, North Chickamauga Creek Gorge, Fall Creek Falls State
Park, Flat Top Mountain and Mowbray Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8562 3532 8556 3535 8551 3541 8549
      3541 8551 3542 8551 3543 8554 3549 8554
      3552 8558 3553 8557 3555 8546 3563 8536
      3556 8511 3553 8510 3550 8514 3548 8512
      3545 8514 3545 8517 3532 8524 3515 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 278DEG 24KT 3562 8537 3537 8570

mjb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1136 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TNZ067-082>084-200415-
Rhea TN-Bledsoe TN-Roane TN-Meigs TN-
1136 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RHEA...NORTHEASTERN BLEDSOE...
NORTHEASTERN MEIGS AND SOUTHWESTERN ROANE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
EDT/1115 PM CDT/...

At 1136 PM EDT/1036 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of
Fairfield Glade to 7 miles northeast of Pikeville. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Kingston, Rockwood, Decatur, Fairview, Spring City, Midtown,
Harriman, Peakland, Eagle Furnace, Stinging Fork Falls State Park,
Piney Falls State Park, Ten Mile, Evensville, Old Washington and
Grandview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT/100 AM
CDT/ for east Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3557 8515 3577 8494 3576 8492 3583 8480
      3583 8477 3586 8473 3589 8471 3592 8467
      3585 8447 3544 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 276DEG 29KT 3594 8479 3566 8509

mjb

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