Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Large bowing MCS continues to work east across Middle TN and
southcentral/southeast KY this evening. Out ahead, a warm front
and consequent swly moisture advection continue to move into the
TN Valley at this time. Thus, am expecting continued elevated CAPE
levels regionwide, with the most unstable regions along/west of
the I75 corridor tonight. The primary threat tonight will be
damaging winds along/ahead of the passing MCS, some gusts as high
as 60-70mph are expected. Also, backed flow out ahead of the
front could enhance localized llv helicity, therefore a few
embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out. All said, looking at a
stormy night across east TN and southwest VA/NC with timing as
follows. Latest HRRR runs favor intrusion of the bowing line
across the Plateau by 11PM, then moving east/southeast approaching
the I75 corridor by around midnight, before moving further east
across the I81 corridor into the foothills/mountains closer to the
2AM timeframe. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 continues through
2AM.

As for the fcst, tweaked pops to align with current coverage
westward, as well as latest CAMPOP trends over the next 3-4 hours.
No other sig changes needed/made with this update.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  90  73  89 /  80  50  30  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  87  70  87 /  80  50  50  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  87  70  87 /  80  50  50  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  82  65  83 /  80  50  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

CDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
657 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

NCZ060-061-TNZ014>018-037>047-070-073-074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-
222300-
Cherokee-Clay-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Union-
Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-Washington-Unicoi-
Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Jefferson-North Sevier-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-
657 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

An area of thunderstorms will move southeast into East Tennessee
tonight. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms,
generally east of I-75. The primary hazard will be damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

...Strong to severe storms possible at times through the
weekend....

Additional thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours
Saturday and additional thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
night into Sunday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
The primary hazard will be damaging winds with a localized threat
for large hail. Heavy rainfall will be likely with thunderstorms
which may produce localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight and Saturday. Please
report severe weather or severe weather damage to us at
www.weather.gov/mrx/SpotterReports/.

TNZ012-013-035-036-067>069-071-072-081>087-098>102-222300-
Scott-Campbell-Morgan-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-
Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-
657 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 /557 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 2 AM EDT Saturday...

An area of thunderstorms will move southeast into East Tennessee
tonight. The severe thunderstorm risk will be highest across the
Cumberland Plateau and Tennessee Valley, generally west of
Interstate 75. The primary hazard will be damaging winds with
localized gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

...Strong to severe storms possible at times through the
weekend....

Additional thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours
Saturday and additional thunderstorms may be possible Saturday
night into Sunday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
The primary hazard will be damaging winds with a localized threat
for large hail. Heavy rainfall will be likely with thunderstorms
which may produce localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight and Saturday. Please
report severe weather or severe weather damage to us at
www.weather.gov/mrx/SpotterReports/.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1003 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TNZ016-039-042>044-220245-
Washington TN-Hamblen TN-Northwest Greene TN-Southeast Greene TN-
Hawkins TN-
1003 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAWKINS...CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN HAMBLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM
EDT...

At 1003 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Russellville, or 11 miles west of Greeneville,
moving east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Greeneville, Jonesborough, Tusculum, Midway, Mosheim,
Bulls Gap, Baileyton, Leesburg, Chucky, Limestone, Romeo, Telford,
Avondale, Embreeville, St. Clair, Camp Creek, Mohawk and Davy
Crockett Birthplace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 8236 3616 8242 3615 8252 3610 8259
      3608 8258 3604 8260 3607 8263 3604 8269
      3610 8308 3614 8315 3615 8317 3636 8316
      3630 8233 3629 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 274DEG 39KT 3617 8303

JLB