River Flood Warning 23, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
646 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday night)... Dynamic weather
system moving through overnight tonight and will continue to bring
impacts to the area through tomorrow. Most of the weather impacts
over the next 48 hours will be felt the greatest in the higher
elevations. Summary of the weather system is a cold front moving
through the area this morning, before clearing out. Then behind it
the associated low will move through the Northern Ohio Valley and
bring wrap around moisture and winds starting Monday morning.
This will likely cause a northwest flow situation bringing wintery
weather to the higher elevations of Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia.

Expect showers, and some embedded thunderstorms, to continue through
the early morning hours. Biggest threats with the storms early this
morning will be brief heavy rainfall. Rivers, streets, and streams
have kept generally in check during the overnight hours. But for the
morning commute drivers should take extra time as the poorly
draining areas may still be wet even though rainfall has mostly
moved out of the Valley areas. Expect most places in the Valley to
be dry by the time the sun rises, but a few straggling showers may
briefly move through after sunrise. We will take a brief break from
precipitation during the daytime hours today, but this will be the
time that the winds start to increase over the area. Low level winds
will begin to increase today out of the south as a 850 jet moves
over the region. In response winds in the valley will also increase
this afternoon, especially in the higher elevations. Winds will
remain elevated on the East/Southwest side of the low, before
beginning to tapper off in the Valley around midnight tonight.

Tonight is when the wintry weather begins, as the low wraps around
moisture and cold air on the back side. Precipitation will begin
again this evening. Orographic lift will be the main lifting
mechanism meaning that precipitation will be closely tied to the
higher elevations and terrain. The higher elevations will drop below
freezing right around sunset...This means that the vast majority of
precipitation that falls in the highest elevations will likely come
down as all snow. The precipitation is expected to last through the
day on Monday into Monday night. Due to the prolonged nature of the
precipitation snowfall accumulations in the highest peaks will
quickly add up. There will be a  Winter Storm Warning for the
mountainous areas of East Tennessee with the main impacts expected
to be above 3000 feet. Below 3000 feet we could see some snowfall
accumulations, but no where near as much as the higher elevations.
In northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia we could see some
brief periods of accumulating snowfall overnight tonight as
temperatures drop near or below freezing.

Snow in the higher elevations will continue during the day on Monday
into Monday night before finally tapering off overnight. When
everything is said and done the peaks of the mountains could
possibly see double digit snow amounts. But those amounts will
quickly drop off as you descend in elevation.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...

For early Tuesday morning, low-level moisture diminishes and
northwest orographic flow weakens allowing light snow
showers/flurries to end. Low level clouds will finally dissipate
Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, surface ridging and developing
upper ridge will produce dry conditions with a gradually moderation
of temperatures.

For Thursday night and Friday, a southern stream short-wave will
move across the Tennessee valley and lower Mississippi valley. Main
differences in the ECMWF and GFS is how far south across the Gulf
coast states will surface low move. There may be a brief time of
wintry precipitation across the northern third of the area.

For Friday night and Saturday, surface ridging will build into the
southern Appalachians producing dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers will continue to move out, and ceilings should eventually
move to VFR. A few lingering showers may occur during the daytime
hours, but airports should remain mostly precipitation free until
the overnight hours. Winds will pick up during the daytime hours
across the entire region.

ABM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  38  44  31  49 /  30  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  37  42  32  46 /  40  30  30   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  37  42  30  46 /  30  40  30   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  35  40  29  42 /  50  70  80  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-
     Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-
     Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
343 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-020845-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-
Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-
Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-
Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-
North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-
McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-
West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Russell-
343 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 /243 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today through Monday

...Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the far east Tennessee
Mountains for Tonight through Monday Evening...

A strong low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley
producing windy conditions across the entire area on Today,
especially during the afternoon. Westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph can be anticipated.

For Tonight through Monday evening, colder air will move into the
region with precipitation developing over southwest Virginia,
Northeast Tennessee, the Cumberland Plateau, and eastern Tennessee
Mountains. The precipitation will mix with, or change to snow
over the higher terrain, generally at or above 2500 feet. Snow
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected over this higher
terrain with local amounts up to 10 inches possible over the
highest elevations by late Monday night. Locations that can expect
significant snowfall will be the Smoky Mountains, Roane Mountain,
High Knob, and Sams Gap.

Windy conditions are also anticipated over the higher elevations
Tonight and Monday producing some blowing and drifting of the
snow. Reduced visibility is also expected. The blustery winds
combined with temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s will produce
wind chills in the single digits across the higher terrain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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