Beach Hazards Statement 9, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
621 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2019

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S. and
another trough on the west coast with a ridge across the Rockies and
plains. Pattern changes little for this forecast period and will
have quiet and dry weather as well. Did not make too many changes to
the going forecast except lowered low temperatures tonight a few
degrees due to ideal radiational cooling conditions setting up
underneath a dry airmass. There looks to be a high swim risk for
Alger County for today with a combination of wind and waves.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2019

This period starts off with high pressure sliding east from the
Central Plains to the Ohio River Valley with a low pressure system
slowly moving downstream just east of James Bay. A negative NAO
continues to maintain a rather slow period of weather. The current
state of this NAO is the most negative it has been since early May
19, and is forecast to continue at least through the next 10 to 14
days. A shortwave coming onshore on the west coast looks break up
our continued NW flow, bringing more zonal flow across the central
CONUS early next week. With no significant return flow anticipated
during this forecast period, this should keep the UP under
comfortable temperatures and humidity levels through the entire
forecast period. There will be a few chances for precipitation as a
few shortwaves pass through the area, but accumulations continue to
appear minimal.

On Saturday, Upper Michigan will remain in W to NW flow with high
pressure over the Ohio River Valley with slight troughing across the
central CONUS. Clouds will begin to funnel across western UP in the
am, moving east through the day as an area of weak WAA moves into
the UP. Models have trended drier over the past few runs and are in
agreement keeping precipitation out of Upper Michigan through
Saturday. As a cold front approaches from the north Saturday night,
chances for precipitation increase slightly. As the front passes
Sunday morning, models indicate a chance for showers to push across
the UP. ECMWF looks to mainly keep precip over the lake, perhaps in
far northern Upper Michigan, as the NAM shows a weak line of showers
across all of the UP. GFS is a little faster than the NAM, but
little moisture seems to be the consistent factor among them all.

After the front passes, high pressure from Canada will slide back
across Upper Michigan Sunday evening. This feature should be short-
lived as a shortwave currently off the Pacific NW coast will move
inland, riding along a SW CONUS high, and reaching Upper Michigan
for Monday night. Medium-range models remain slightly off in timing
and intensity, but are consistent with the heaviest precipitation
remaining to the south. The latest GEM is now slower and is unable
to fight through the dry air, keeping all precipitation out of the
UP. GFS and ECMWF bring some precipitation through the UP Tues
morning, with EC about 6 hours behind GFS. EC has some precip linger
overnight Tuesday as GFS dries quickly as high pressure moves back
into the region. Expect this high to keep things dry through
Thursday evening before precipitation chances return for Friday as
GFS/ECMWF bring light precip through the UP, and the GEM keeps
things south once again.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 621 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2019

Under a dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail thru this fcst
period. Diurnal cu will form this morning, mainly at KSAW. Expect
breezy conditions today at KCMX/KSAW with gusts up to 20-25kt.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 235 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2019

With high pressure to the west, breezy southwest to northwest winds
will persist today. The windiest spots look to be over the tip of
the Keweenaw and across much of eastern Lake Superior, especially
near the shoreline and around/north of Whitefish Point. Wind gusts
could approach 20 to 25 knots across those locations. These would be
the strongest winds for this forecast period with winds below 20
knots for the rest of the time.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JAW
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
311 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

MIZ006-100715-
Alger-
311 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a high swim risk for Lake Superior beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MIZ001>005-007-009>014-084-085-100715-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
311 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 /211 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-100715-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
311 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019 /211 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-100715-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
311 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

JAW