Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
337 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

A cold front extending from southern South Dakota up to a surface
low over Hudson Bay continues to move south through the region, with
only southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin remaining out
ahead of it this afternoon. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE exists ahead of
this front but only 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear, as the best
deep shear lags back to the northwest. Can't rule out an isolated
severe storm along this front before it moves east into central
Wisconsin, but the overall threat appears lower compared to this
morning. Behind the front, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across central Minnesota where forcing aloft is
stronger from a shortwave over the northern Great Lakes. This
activity will continue through sunset across Minnesota and west-
central Wisconsin, but strong/severe storms are not expected.

Skies clear out tonight as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Lows could drop into the upper 40s across portions of
central Minnesota, but otherwise mid to upper 50s are expected.
Winds around 5 mph along with drier air filtering in should prevent
much in the way of fog formation, but can't rule out some patchy fog
in low-lying areas. Tomorrow looks like another great summer day
with plenty of sunshine, and highs in the mid to upper 70s along
with drier dewpoints in the low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

High pressure will be centered over the area by Friday morning,
with temperatures for the most part starting out in the 50s across
the area. Mostly clear skies with highs around 80 are anticipated.

For this weekend, a shortwave trough will overtop the ridge to our
west Friday night, and move east across Minnesota and Wisconsin
Saturday. A stripe of strong 850mb threat-e advection will
accompany the upper level shortwave and vort max through, but the
uncertainty lies more with the exact placement of the forcing.
Some of the deterministic guidance keeps the upper level forcing
farther north, so stuck with the blended approach at this long
term stage, which included mostly chance pops for Saturday, but
that will likely increase for portions of the area as we get
closer to this weekend. In terms of severe weather potential, as
of now, both CAPE and shear profiles appear rather limited this
far north so the threat for severe weather is low.

Canadian high pressure then fills in across the area for Sunday,
with drying conditions and plentiful sun expected that day. By
early next week, yet another shortwave trough will work west to
east across the northern CONUS, and bring another chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure
building in behind a cold front this afternoon. Some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across west-
central Wisconsin along the front his afternoon, but coverage only
looks high enough to warrant a VCTS mention at EAU. Northwest
winds with gusts around 20 kts will be present this afternoon
behind the front, with speeds diminishing after sunset. Speeds
pick up to around 10 kts by late morning tomorrow, along with a
few gusts in the teens.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Slgt Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ETA
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
118 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-081830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
118 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west central
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
primarily across east-central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Saturday night and
again Sunday night through Tuesday. The severe weather potential
appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is not expected.

WIZ014>016-023>028-081830-
Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
118 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest
Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. A
few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind are
possible

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Saturday night and
again Sunday night through Tuesday. The severe weather potential
appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed in portions of western
Wisconsin later this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
318 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ016-027-072100-
Chippewa-Rusk-
318 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RUSK AND
NORTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES...

At 317 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Bruce, or 10 miles southwest of Ladysmith, moving southeast at 40
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheldon, Conrath and Holcombe.

LAT...LON 4534 9139 4545 9130 4535 9092 4508 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 298DEG 34KT 4536 9126

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
529 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ028-072300-
Eau Claire-
529 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTY...

At 529 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Strum, or 13 miles south of Eau Claire, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairchild, Foster and Allen.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 78 and
87.

LAT...LON 4460 9092 4459 9137 4459 9140 4466 9152
      4473 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 290DEG 28KT 4466 9138

JRB