Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Early this afternoon a surface front was bisecting parts of west
central, and central Minnesota. Winds shift to the west behind this
front, but most of the deep moisture resided with the morning
thunderstorms which left most of Minnesota by late morning. Remnants
of the deeper moisture was evident as isolated storms continued in
central Wisconsin as of 2 pm. The lack of deep moisture has, and
will likely limit the amount of convection later this afternoon, and
into the evening across Minnesota. However, the surface front
sliding southeast this evening, and a subtle short wave that was
evident across North Dakota this afternoon, will lead to isolated
convection toward sunset. Until the convection develops, skies will
be mostly clear with a southwest/west wind. Severe weather parameter
are conducive for isolated supercell development as wind shear
values are between 35-45 kts. Both large hail and damaging winds are
possible due to the amount of wind shear that may be tapped early
before sunset.

Evening chance of showers/storms are related to the surface front
and timing of the short wave moving through the region this evening.
Due to the limiting factors of strong moisture convergence and only
a weak short wave moving across the area, precipitation chances will
remain near or below likely criteria. I wouldn't be surprised to see
parts of eastern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin to be
upgraded to likely or categorical if better moisture transport is
obtained, and convection can initiate along the surface boundary.
The chances of precipitation continue southward toward the Iowa
border thru early Saturday morning before dissipating. Saturday
should be dry with the exception along the Iowa border where the
surface front will be close. No changes for Saturday night as the
bulk of the next chance of precipitation isn't likely until after
sunrise Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Longer term trends continue to paint a rather wet Sunday/Sunday
night for the area with a cooler and drier trend into midweek next
week.

Overall, models continue to drive a potent short wave trough
across the region Sunday. Will hold onto higher end PoPs for now
as this system works across the area. SPC day 3 outlooked
Marginal severe risk which looks OK at this point. Will likely
see convection move into central MN by midday Sunday. With
widespread cloud and rain, should limit overall instability and
severe potential. Heavy rainfall will be associated as this system
lifts through with PW's around 2 standard deviations above the
mean expected.

This system exits to the east Sunday night and the overall upper
flow pattern becomes a bit more northwest into at least midweek
next week. This will drive cooler and drier air across the western
Great Lakes during the period with nearly ideal summer weather
conditions. Temperatures generally 75 to 80 with overnight lows 55
to 60 and dewpoints ranging in the 50s.

Models have trended drier with the Tuesday/Tuesday night
convective potential with high pressure dominating the area. Left
a slight chance PoP to the southwest where models suggest better
forcing and possible instability on the periphery of the western
CONUS ridge.

Riding aloft to the west and trough to the east will continue
through the end of the week, with possible short waves lifting
over the ridge and affecting the area, mainly late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Isolated storms are likely late this afternoon, and into the
evening. However, timing and areal extent remains questionable.
The best coverage area will occur after 5 PM from east central
Minnesota, south-southeast into portions of west central
Wisconsin thru 05Z. This will mainly affect KRNH, KEAU and KMSP
airport sites. Elsewhere, coverage is not expected to be more than
very isolated to include in the 18Z TAF. Higher confidence that
KAXN will be dry through the period, with KRNH the best chance of
TSRA. Winds will become more WSW over western Minnesota this
afternoon, and gusty southwest wind in south central Minnesota,
and west central Wisconsin. Winds will be more northwest on
Saturday.

KMSP...

The best chance of any thunderstorm activity near KMSP will occur
between 00-04Z. Once TSRA develop northwest of KMSP, the TAF will
be amended for timing. VFR conditions are likely after the evening
TSRA with a northwest wind developing on Saturday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sun...MVFR possible with TSRA likely. SE wind 5-15 kt bcmg SW.
Mon...VFR. NW wind 10-15 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JLT

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