Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Updated for the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The main forecast concern in the short term period is the showers
and thunderstorms forecast to move through the Minnesota and western
Wisconsin today.

As of early this morning, a surface low was noted across eastern
Colorado with thr frontal boundary we've been dealing with for days
in place across northern Iowa. North of the front across southern
MN and western WI, dew points have fallen into the mid to upper 60s
and temperatures have cooled into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Meanwhile, an MCS was progressing eastward across South Dakota, and
will eventually move across our local area today with additional
thunderstorm development out ahead of the MCS north of the front.

The strongest instability has shifted south of with the front
itself, but up to 3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE will be in place across
southern MN which could lead to strong elevated storms with
isolated large hail. The main issue will be heavy rainfall and
lightning. The strongest forcing, including 600-700mb Fgen will
shift nearly due east across southern MN and western WI today.
There have been some differences in the model guidance on exactly
how far north or south the main slug of precipitation will go. The
HRRR is one of the more northern solutions while the global
models tend to point to far southern MN along the Iowa border.
Leaned toward the northern solution as CAMs have been consistently
showing this from run to run. From mid morning through mid
afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms to work east across
southern MN and western WI, with a narrow 1-2" swath of rainfall
(and possibly locally higher amounts)expected.

Skies will clear from west to east this evening as reinforcing dry
northerly flow pushes in with pressure rises from the north. Sunday
will start out clear and dry, but a quick moving shortwave trough
will approach from the west by afternoon, introducing some chances
of precipitation to the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

A pattern change is on the horizon in the long term, as the large
scale flow transitions to ridging over the Intermountain west and
troughing over the eastern CONUS. Overall this will mean dry and
mild weather for the forecast area, with the exception of possibly
the entry into and out of the pattern.

Sunday will be one of those days, in which we should see overall
dry weather, but a few stray showers can't be ruled out given
fleeting northwest flow aloft. After that, we see several days
with mostly sunny skies and high temps moderating from the 70s to
low/mid 80s.

On Friday the western ridge flattens, which looks to bring back
northwest flow to the region. Both GFS and ECMWF models bring a
weak front across the area as a shortwave trough pivots over
northwest Ontario. Therefore the Friday night - Saturday time
frame would be the next decent opportunity for organized shower
and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Thunderstorms developing along and north of the west to east
oriented frontal boundary will be the main concer. Expect the
storms to lift north toward the metro, then translate eastward
with time through the day. MVFR cigs will be mostly be limited to
thunderstorms, mainly due to VIS issues. Storms should be on the
way out by this afternoon, with rapidly improving conditions after
that.

KMSP...A prolonged period of thunderstorms from 14Z through 19Z
is possible. Severe weather chance is low this far north.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
430 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
210930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
430 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are likely today. A few strong to
severe storms are possible, primarily across southern Minnesota.
Locally heavy rainfall is expected with these storms as well,
which may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW OWATONNA           44.06N 93.25W
07/20/2019                   STEELE             MN   PUBLIC

            TREE UPROOTED AT OWATONNA COUNTRY CLUB. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KENYON                  44.27N 92.99W
07/20/2019                   GOODHUE            MN   PUBLIC

            2-4 INCH BRANCHES DOWN. PICTURE ON FACEBOOK.

&&

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1149 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE ALBERT LEA        43.66N 93.36W
07/20/2019                   FREEBORN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AROUND THE FAIRGROUNDS, TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1152 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIZ025>028-201745-
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-
1152 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PEPIN...
SOUTHEASTERN DUNN...CHIPPEWA AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

At 1152 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 9 miles north of
Mondovi, moving east at 40 mph.

Brief gusty winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls, Altoona, Lake Hallie, Stanley, Bloomer,
Lake Wissota, Augusta, Cornell, Cadott, Fall Creek and Elk Mound.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 52 and 86.
 U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 86 and 110.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4460 9191 4504 9166 4530 9093 4460 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 265DEG 34KT 4470 9160

ETA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MNC013-079-103-131-147-161-201830-
Le Sueur-Steele-Blue Earth-Rice-Waseca-Nicollet-
1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Le Sueur...Steele...Blue Earth...Rice...Waseca...Nicollet...

* Until 130 PM CDT.

* At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Mankato, Owatonna, Faribault, North Mankato, St. Peter, Waseca,
  Eagle Lake, Janesville, Waterville, Medford, Madison Lake and
  Morristown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4397 9412 4429 9413 4430 9304 4395 9305

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MNZ091-092-201815-
Martin-Faribault-
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FARIBAULT AND
MARTIN COUNTIES...

At 1219 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ceylon, or 11
miles northeast of Estherville, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairmont, Sherburn, Welcome, Ceylon, Granada, East Chain, Northrop,
Dunnell, Fairmont Airport, Imogene, Wilbert and Foxlake.

This includes Interstate 90 between mile markers 82 and 114.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4351 9485 4370 9485 4382 9425 4350 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 259DEG 32KT 4354 9472

CTG