Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
232 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

The 850 mb theta-e ridge will continue to work into the area this
evening, helping to drive and area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms eastward across the area. However, there should be a
diminishing trend as the activity gets into the eastern portion of
the area tonight and the forcing weakens. We'll have a second
surge of moisture and better instability work into the area Friday
afternoon and Friday night, bringing a better chance for SHRA/TSRA
to the entire area, although the best instability and shear look
to be across the western forecast area late Friday afternoon into
Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

The southwest to northeast oriented baroclinic zone still looks
to stall out Saturday into Monday with several surface waves
moving along it and bringing windows of enhanced precipitation
changes to the area. Tried to get some of that timing into things
rather than blanket the entire time frame with chance PoPs.
However, the guidance (understandably) agrees much less on the
details as we move through the weekend given small differences in
convective development that compound over time. Stuck very close
to the consensus NBM guidance from Saturday night through the
balance of the forecast. We should finally see a break in the more
widespread precipitation by Tuesday, although there will be some
additional chances through the remainder of the week as ridging
becomes established over the central part of the country and we
get into a pattern more favorable for MCS development. It's way
too early to say whether we'll be in the path for repeated MCS
passages, but given the forecast position of the upper jet and
best areas of anticyclonic 250 mb flow, it certainly will be
something to keep an eye on for the middle to end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

The line of showers in western MN is slowly pushing eastwards.
Expect CIGS to drop mainly in the west where showers are
occurring. Mainly VFR conditions prevail, dipping into MVFR for
AXN & RWF overnight. Winds have been bumped up for today,
especially for western MN.

KMSP...VFR likely for the period. MVFR is possible for a brief
period from 20-01Z if we see showers over the airport. Otherwise,
CIGS remain VFR. Wind forecast has trended higher, as they are
overperforming today already.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E/SE AT
5-10KTS. SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS VRB AT BELOW
5KTS. MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1124 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-211630-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-
Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-
1124 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west central
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Severe weather is not expected, but small hail is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue into early next
week. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be Friday and
Friday evening across Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed Friday afternoon and
Friday night.

MNZ053-WIZ014>016-023>028-211630-
Chisago-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
1124 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue into early next
week. The probability for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

MNZ064-202100-
Yellow Medicine-
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTY...

At 333 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Clarkfield, or
14 miles south of Montevideo, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Granite Falls, Clarkfield, Wood Lake, Hanley Falls, Spring Creek,
Hazel Run, Granite Falls Airport and Spellman Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 42 and 49.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 88 and 101.

LAT...LON 4481 9585 4483 9584 4488 9565 4480 9553
      4479 9550 4478 9553 4477 9551 4477 9550
      4473 9542 4466 9540 4464 9585 4481 9590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 258DEG 18KT 4475 9578