Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
127 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

The weak surface boundary did not sag as far south as models were
hinting at Friday, so the threat for more organized shower and
thunderstorm development this afternoon has increased, as also
confirmed by the SPC Day 1 Outlook northward shift of the Slight
Risk area. Have increased pops into the 70-80 percent range for this
afternoon and early evening. Given the potential for slow-
moving/training cells along the boundary, we also have a marginal
risk for heavy rainfall.

To thicken the plot, a detectable shortwave in the northwest flow
will swing from the Dakotas across Minnesota during the afternoon.
MLCAPE values circa 2000 J/kg combined with effective shear around
35 knots should instigate fairly widespread multicell storms,
possibly even a few supercells. Per usual, will need to closely
monitor any cells that develop near the surface boundary, as they
would have the potential to spawn a brief tornado.

Tonight and Sunday the severe threat diminishes, but lingering
showers will be possible as weak shortwave energy pivots over the
area in the base of the southern Canadian trough.

High temperatures should reach the 80s over southern MN today south
of the boundary, with 70s north. Cooler highs in the low 60s/70s
will follow for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A rather messy pattern develops after the weekend, with westerly flow
aloft strengthening as the week goes on and multiple vorticity
lobes bringing at least slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms practically every day next week. With guidance
struggling to resolve some of these subtle forcing mechanisms will
continue to advertise general 20-40% chance PoPs but do not
expect this week to be a total washout or for most locations to
see precipitation every day through this stretch. More widespread
precipitation chances do look more likely towards the end of the
week and over next weekend as the jet strengthens and an upper
level low pivots across the northern tier of the CONUS.

Next week should start out mostly dry with weak high pressure
moving in behind this weekend's cold front. Precipitation chances
on Monday look to be mainly limited to western Minnesota along a
weak surface trough, but the upper level support will be largely
dependent on how the upper level low to our north shears out.
Similar pattern on Tuesday, although precipitation chances will
begin to increase Tuesday evening into Wednesday as a front
approaches out of the west. Wednesday into Thursday look to be our
next best shot as widespread organized precip as the entrance
region of a strengthening Pacific jet moves overhead, although
timing and intensity differences among models precludes higher-end
PoPs at this time. Not seeing many strong signals towards a
widespread severe or heavy rain threat with this midweek system,
but will have to wait and see on how the timing works out over our
area. Finally, another more organized shot at precipitation looks
to come towards the end of the week and into the weekend as a deep
upper low migrates into the northern Plains/Canadian prairies. At
first glance, PW values and instability look to be higher across
MN/WI with this system compared to the one midweek, but this will
strongly depend on the track and strength of the upper low.
Temperatures through the week will remain a few degrees below
normal, with highs largely in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A somewhat complex forecast this period with issues surrounding
shower/storm chances through this evening and evolution of an
MVFR cloud band this afternoon, then when and how does it expand
and lower tonight. Storms are developing along an instability axis
that resides along a stationary boundary near the MN River in
western MN down into north central Iowa. RAP shows this
instability not moving much today, so locations northeast of this
instability axis are going to have to wait until after 00z to get
precip as the shortwave over the eastern Dakotas swings across the
area. Overnight, continued northeast winds will promote the
development of MVFR/IFR cigs. CONshort cig height grids looked
pretty good for timing, so followed that idea for bringing lower
conditions back.

KMSP...Main change to the TAF was to delay any precip potential.
Questionable if MSP even sees any TS, but at the very least, we
are waiting on the shortwave to get here, which doesn't arrive
until after 00z. All that TS activity to our south will stay south
with the instability. CIGs will lower tonight, could go IFR, but
kept them MVFR for now. Precip chances are minimal for Sun, though
clouds will linger.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb.
Tue...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
442 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
160945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
442 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Severe
storms appear possible, primarily this afternoon from west central
into southern Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats, along with localized heavy rainfall. A brief
tornado or two will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms again late Tuesday through
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening south of Interstate 94.

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