Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
638 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

Temperatures this afternoon continue to rise slowly and range from
the mid 80s, to lower 90s at Cambridge, Red Wing, and portions of
west central MN. With another 2 or so hours of heating, several
more sites should eclipse 90 before all is said and done.

CU is finally beginning to develop across northern WI stretching
west to central MN along the surface cold front. A few showers
have also recently developed within the most impressive CU.
Additional showers and eventually thunderstorms will develop along
the front during the evening. Little forcing south of the front
should keep things dry, so reduced PoPs for the evening hours
across southern MN. While severe weather is generally not expected
with this activity, a few storms may produce gusty winds and one
or two may produce damaging winds.

Northerly flow will bring cooler temperatures Saturday with highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

The long term period will be relatively quiet, with only one decent
shot of precipitation and temperatures starting cooler than normal
Sunday, but warming early next week and highs remaining near to
slightly above normal for early June.

Sunday through Monday...cool high pressure from Canada will be in
place across the Upper Midwest Sunday morning. An upper level low
over the northern Great Lakes will likely lead to afternoon showers
to our northeast, but for most of southern MN and western WI, sunny
skies with highs around 70 degrees can be expected. With the dry
airmass in place, lowered dew points down to about the 10th
percentile of all the model guidance given deep mixing expected with
this airmass. So, dew point depressions around 40 degrees are
expected by Sunday afternoon. Thankfully, winds will remain
relatively light through the day, under 10 MPH.  Southerly flow
begins to develop across western MN and expand eastward Sunday night
as the surface high shifts southeast of the local area. Warm air
advection with the southerly flow developing will lead to warmer
temperatures come Monday. Another quiet day on Monday with highs in
the mid to upper 70s and mostly sunny skies.

Tuesday through Wednesday...continued warm and moisture advection is
in store for Tuesday along with a developing upper level shortwave
which looks to ride the upper ridge eastward across the Dakotas
through Minnesota. There are still timing differences to sort out
with this activity, but severe weather is not out of the question if
if dyanmics and the cold front associated with the surface low
across southern Canada move through our area during peak the
afternoon and evening, which would result in forcing aligning best
with instability. Due to timing differences and being several days
away, went with blended guidance for PoPs for this period. The cold
front itself will likely clear MN and wester WI by Wednesday
morning, which will be followed by dry high pressure and more
pleasant weather. Sunny skies with highs from 75 to 80 can be
expected again for Wednesday.

For the end of next week, the main jet lifts farther north into
Canada and we will likely see continued dry weather with highs
remaining the 75 to 80 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

VFR conditions overall, but expect some scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The risk for thunder should diminish closer to
midnight as the instability decreases, so should have more of a
rain shower setup. Winds will become more northerly as a cold
front slides across the region, and should see gusts close to 20
kts Saturday afternoon.

KMSP...

There's a few scattered showers and thunderstorms out there, and
this will continue this evening. The thunder threat will diminish
after midnight, but will see some rain showers persist toward
sunset. Then northwest winds will increase Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Tue...Chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1238 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
011745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1238 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected tonight. There is a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with the main threat being
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Severe weather is not expected at this time.

Area rivers will continue to run high over the weekend into next
week with ongoing flooding expected to continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
726 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

MNZ061-010100-
Anoka-
726 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ANOKA COUNTY...

At 725 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near East Bethel, or
12 miles south of Cambridge, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ham Lake, East Bethel, St. Francis, Oak Grove and Bethel.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4538 9302 4534 9302 4524 9310 4536 9336
      4541 9328 4541 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 291DEG 25KT 4536 9326

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
742 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

MNZ053-061-063-010115-
Anoka-Washington-Chisago-
742 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
CHISAGO...EAST CENTRAL ANOKA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 741 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Forest Lake,
or 17 miles southeast of Cambridge, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail, gusty winds, and occasional cloud to ground
lightning are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lino Lakes, Forest Lake, Hugo, Chisago City, Lindstrom, Scandia,
Wyoming, Otisville, Marine On St Croix and William OBrien State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 130 and 138.
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota between mile markers 0 and 5, and
between mile markers 7 and 8.
 U.S. Highway 61 between mile markers 163 and 164.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4536 9270 4533 9270 4529 9276 4521 9275
      4519 9277 4517 9275 4509 9279 4521 9308
      4524 9307 4524 9310 4534 9302 4538 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 294DEG 37KT 4530 9309

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
815 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

WIZ014-023-010145-
Polk-St. Croix-
815 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. CROIX
AND SOUTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...

At 814 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Scandia, or
26 miles north of River Falls, moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning are
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Richmond, Amery, Somerset, Osceola, Dresser, Star Prairie, Deer
Park, Osceola Airport, Boardman, Huntington, Wanderoos and East
Farmington.

This includes U.S. Highway 61 near mile marker 165.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4534 9232 4502 9248 4511 9274 4520 9277
      4521 9275 4529 9276 4533 9270 4536 9270
      4538 9268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 281DEG 36KT 4523 9271

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
848 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

MNZ044-051-010215-
Sherburne-Mille Lacs-
848 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MILLE LACS AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Princeton, or
22 miles east of St. Cloud, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail, gusty winds, and occasional cloud to ground
lightning are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zimmerman, Princeton, Santiago, Sherburne National Wildlife Refuge
and Princeton Airport.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 170 and 180.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4553 9351 4543 9354 4551 9383 4556 9381
      4556 9376 4559 9375 4562 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 277DEG 21KT 4555 9373

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
907 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

MNZ052-010230-
Isanti-
907 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ISANTI COUNTY...

At 906 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Princeton, or
14 miles west of Cambridge, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail, gusty winds, and occasional cloud to ground
lightning are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, St. Francis, Spencer Brook and Cambridge Airport.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4560 9321 4541 9329 4541 9344 4543 9352
      4551 9352 4561 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 283DEG 27KT 4552 9353

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
933 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

WIZ027-028-010315-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
933 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA AND NORTHERN
EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

At 933 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Eau Claire,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls, Altoona, Lake Hallie, Stanley, Lake
Wissota, Augusta, Cadott, Fall Creek, Boyd, Ludington and Lake Eau
Claire County Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 59 and 76.
 U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 86 and 101.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4476 9164 4498 9160 4497 9093 4464 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 283DEG 31KT 4488 9152

JLT