Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

A band of heavy snow will continue lifting north and east across
the area this morning driven by strong forcing in the exit region
of the upper level jet. Sustained surface winds of 30 to 40 mph
with gusts to 50 mph, combined with the heavy snow, are producing
significantly reduced visibility across much of central Minnesota
and west central Wisconsin. For these areas, the worst conditions
will occur this morning. This afternoon and tonight, the heavy
snow band sets up from northern MN across west central MN, as
frontogenetic forcing in the deformation zone sets up. In between
those transition times, a light wintry mix of precip will be
possible, but additional impacts would be minimal. Winds decrease
slightly tonight but moderate to snow will continue across western
Minnesota. When all is said and done, storm total snowfall
amounts from 10 to 20 inches will be common across most of the
forecast area, with the exception of south central MN, where
amounts under 6 inches are expected. The highest storm totals
will occur across far west central MN, where amounts in excess of
two FEET are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

High pressure will build-in behind the departing winter storm
system. There is a slight chance for rain snow mix in central
Wisconsin, but otherwise, dry conditions will be in place. Cloud
cover and winds will lessen during the day. Temperatures will remain
unseasonably cool with highs in the upper 30s. The cool and dry
weather will continue through Sunday with a warming trend beginning
during the start of the week.

A shortwave trough and weak cold front will bring a chance for light
rain and snow on Tuesday. An upper level trough will enter the
western CONUS on Tuesday with another low pressure system expected
to develop over the southern Plains on Wednesday. There is a chance
that a warm advection band ahead of this system will reach Minnesota
and West Central WI. There are still many differences in model
solutions for this system, including how much moisture there will be
and its track. There is a slight chance for light snow overnight
into Wednesday, but otherwise, precipitation should be rain. Then,
the track of the system on Wednesday will affect how much
precipitation we will receive Wednesday night through Thursday. The
current model guidance suggests that MN and west central WI should
stay mostly dry Wednesday night into Thursday with the low pressure
system will lift through the TX/OK Panhandle area through the Ohio
River Valley region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

The significant winter storm will continue to affect the region
today. Multiple bands of precipitation are expected to develop
during the day -- some with embedded thunderstorms. Overall, RWF,
AXN, and STC look to be the sites with the greatest potential for
continued snowfall and LIFR visibility. Further south and
eastward, conditions will be drier with a rain, snow, sleet mix
possible. Precipitation should transition to solely snow for
tonight.

KMSP... Precipitation and thunderstorm chances continue today
with multiple bands likely to lift through southern MN. There may
be some dry periods between the bands. Otherwise, precipitation
will likely be a rain/ice pellet mix during the afternoon before
transitioning back to snow tonight. Conditions are expected to
gradually improve during the late morning Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-20kt.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW to NE 3-5kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Friday for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ059>063-
     066>070-074>078-082-083-091.

     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ041-047>049-
     054>058-064-065-073.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ042>045-
     050>053.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ084-085-
     092-093.

&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...AMK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
504 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
504 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A powerful winter storm will bring significant travel impacts
along with the potential for downed power lines and power outages.
A band of heavy snow will continue to lift north across central
Minnesota and Wisconsin this morning. This afternoon and tonight,
moderate to heavy snow will continue across west central
Minnesota, with a wintry mix possible elsewhere. The snowfall,
combined with strong winds, will significantly impact
visibilities, with blizzard conditions possible across western
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

While the storm will wind down early Friday, travel conditions
will likely remain impacted into Friday. See the latest winter
weather statement for more information.

The Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers will continue to see some
areas above flood stage through the week due to the seasonal snow
melt. However, a new surge of water into the river system is
expected after the upcoming storm, and many sites may potentially
reach flood stage as a result. The Minnesota River and
tributaries have the greatest potential to rise to major flood
stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters and snowfall observers are urged to report snowfall
amounts to the National Weather Service.

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