Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Twin Cities, MN

279 
WWUS53 KMPX 280320
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1020 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MNC049-WIC091-093-280330-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-190628T0330Z/
Goodhue MN-Pepin WI-Pierce WI-
1020 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GOODHUE...
SOUTHWESTERN PEPIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
1030 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4443 9217 4443 9220 4445 9224 4446 9243
      4456 9242 4458 9203 4456 9204 4442 9208
      4441 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 275DEG 25KT 4446 9206 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
910 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Instability was very sluggish in returning today in the wake of
the MCS that came through earlier in the day. However, as we got
after 8pm, visible satellite showed a field of accas develop within
the WAA associated with the LLJ. RAP MUCAPE analysis shows this
LLJ is now bringing some instability up from IA, with
thunderstorms developing south of the Twin Cities in response to
all of this. Expect this activity to slowly sag southeast through
the night with the LLJ. Storms will be elevated and should remain
mostly sub-severe, but with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg and
around 40 kts of effective bulk shear, this activity can not be
completely ignored for a marginal severe hail threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

The primary concern in the short term is the possibility of
convective redevelopment later today and this evening. Latest radar
imagery shows this morning's activity has finally exited the area,
with just some trailing stratiform precipitation remaining. The MCV
resulting from the morning MCS is working its way northeast toward
western Lake Superior at the current time, and won't have any
additional impact on our area, except for the subsidence on its
backside which is helping to clear out the cloud cover across the
western and central portion of the area per the latest visible
imagery. HRRR and HopWRF runs still point toward some redevelopment
of convection later today near the instability gradient once it re-
establishes itself. There remains some question on where and when
that will occur, but the current consensus is it would be late
afternoon or early evening near or north of I-94. Any storms that
develop should move east and southeast, with the best chance to see
anything being east of I-35. We'll need to see how well the
instability recovers across the area, but there is at least some
chance for a few severe storms. The upper ridge will continue to
build into the area Friday and Friday night, with any weak shortwave
energy tracking by to our north. So, once we get rid of any
precipitation tonight it looks like things will be dry Friday and
Friday night with very warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Both the EC/GFS have similar model outputs with the mean long
wave pattern through early next week. Thus, the upper ridge that
was forecast to build across the Upper Midwest on Saturday,
remains on track to produce the hottest air mass since last year.
Heat index values, in combination of WBGT depict a higher
potential for heat illness for those who are active outdoors
Saturday. Depending upon when the cold front arrives on Sunday,
southern Minnesota could have another day of these higher values.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a heat advisory issued for parts of
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin on Saturday, and possibly
Sunday based on these conditions.

The upper ridge will begin to break down late Sunday, especially
Monday as a short wave moves rapidly eastward across the Canadian
border. Thus, with this short wave, a cold front will arrive. Timing
is questionable but likely it will be another hot day with storms
Sunday night.

Past Sunday night, and due to a persistent fast west to east flow
aloft, I can't rule out any afternoon or evening thunderstorm as
Sunday nights frontal boundary will likely be in the vicinity next
week. As the front holds close to the area, I don't see any strong
surge of drier air moving southward and this will lead to dew points
remaining quite moist. There also remains uncertainty on
temperatures next week. I am leaning toward holding on above normal
temperatures next week which is more in line with the EC vs. the
GFS. This scenario keeps most of the colder Canadian air mass
farther north compared to the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

First, we took a decidedly more optimistic approach with the 00z
TAFs with respect to both the potential for a second round of
convection this evening and development of stratus overnight. We
started pulling back on the convection mention because instability
recovery behind the line of storms that went through earlier
today has been lack luster. Nothing has had a good handle on a
potential second round of storms, with the HRRR backing off quite
a bit. Think eventually stuff will get going on the LLJ, but as
the 22z HRRR shows, this may end up being south and east of all
but EAU. For cigs overnight, HREF/SREF probs really highlight
central MN being most susceptible to low cloud formation, so
favored that idea. There is an incredible amount of spread for
cigs overnight in the guidance, so this is a low confidence
forecast, though some br/stratus is likely, possibly more than
currently forecast.

KMSP...Starting to see trends of no additional storms impacting
MSP as instability has remained along the MN River from western MN
into northeast IA, hence why we pulled back to just a vcsh mention
this evening. For cigs, there's just not enough confidence in
if/where/when low cigs will form, so have a decidedly optimistic
forecast. Based on HREF probs, 9z to 14z is when we'll have the
best chance for reduced cigs, with heights under 015 likely if
they occur.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Winds SE 5-10G15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc TSRA late. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds lgt and vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
903 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MNZ060>063-067>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
290215-
Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-
Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-
Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
903 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight from south central
into east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Locally
heavy rainfall we be possible with these storms. The threat for
severe weather is low, with some small hail being possible with
the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The first heat wave of the summer will begin to arrive Friday and
peak this weekend. Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s are
likely, especially Saturday and Sunday. Heat indices may exceed
100 this weekend. Those who are active outdoors will be at risk
for heat related illness Friday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will again be possible later in the weekend into
next week with the higher chances coming Sunday afternoon and
Monday. Severe weather along with heavy downpours and localized
flooding will be possible with any activity we see.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ041>045-047>059-064>066-073-290215-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Redwood-
903 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west
central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The first heat wave of the summer will begin to arrive Friday and
peak this weekend. Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s are
likely, especially Saturday and Sunday. Heat indices may exceed
100 this weekend. Those who are active outdoors will be at risk
for heat related illness Friday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will again be possible later in the weekend into
next week with the higher chances coming Sunday afternoon and
Monday. Severe weather along with heavy downpours and localized
flooding will be possible with any activity we see.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
929 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MNZ070-077-078-085-WIZ024-026-280300-
Steele-Dakota-Rice-Goodhue-Pierce-Pepin-
929 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DAKOTA...
NORTHERN STEELE...GOODHUE...RICE...WESTERN PEPIN AND PIERCE
COUNTIES...

At 925 PM CDT, scattered strong thunderstorms stretched from
Waterville in Minnesotam, northeast to Elmwood in Wisconsin. These
storms will moves slowly southeast through 1030 pm.

Dime size hail and locally heavy downpours will be possible with
these storms.

LAT...LON 4408 9341 4420 9341 4426 9352 4440 9352
      4470 9271 4483 9222 4477 9213 4468 9213
      4468 9197 4441 9209 4445 9224 4445 9243
      4437 9243 4436 9255 4423 9255 4419 9263
      4419 9304 4404 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 239DEG 49KT 4445 9300