River Flood Warning 6, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
604 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Northwest flow will prevail over the area through the short term
period, and foster occasional chances for scattered light snow
showers. The first opportunity is from west into south central MN
on Saturday, and then from north central into east central MN on
Saturday night. All in all, these waves will generally bring a
dusting of new snow.

Temperatures tonight will lower into the upper single digits to
mid teens. These readings should be the coldest temps we see
through the foreseeable future, with lows Saturday night
moderating several degrees. Highs Saturday should be fairly
similar to today, generally in the low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Longer term continue to trend mainly dry with slowly warming
temperatures.

The weak short wave dropping in the northwest flow aloft with
continue to affect eastern portions of the CWA into Sunday. We
will continue the low PoP for light snow for this feature into the
day Sunday. We expect plenty of clouds to remain to the east with
perhaps some sunshine developing to the west during the day. We
expect temperatures to warm through the lower and mid 30s.

Cool high pressure will return for Monday and Monday night.
Sunshine should be able to boost temperatures through the 30s.

Deterministic models diverge some on handling the Tuesday frontal
boundary/upper trough passage. The GFS is much farther east with
its trough energy with a dry cold frontal passage for the area.
The 12z ECMWF dives its trough farther to the west and affects the
CWA with some small chance PoPs. We will retain the blended
guidance PoPs for this system for now. It does look to be a
rain/snow mix if it does occur as we warm temperatures into the
upper 30s to low 40s.

Finally, we see slow warming into the end of the week as heights
over the central CONUS rise as another trough moves through the
intermountain west. Appears temperatures could warm to near or
slightly above normal, with highs 45 to 50 for Friday. Timing and
strength of system ejecting out of the west is still in question,
but precipitation chances will return for the following weekend.

The weeks freeze thaw should remain favorable for a slow snow melt
at least for this forecast period. Still, we will have to
maintain the hydro watch for ice jams and continued small rises
of snow melt into area river basins.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

VFR conditions to prevail throughout this TAF site. NW flow will
bring thru some weak shortwave disturbances aloft which will keep
SCT-BKN clouds in place in the mid-to-upper levels. A few light
snow showers will be possible over western and southern MN
Saturday afternoon but shouldn't be anything to reduce flight
conditions or be measurable. Breezy/gusty NW winds this evening
will gradually subside going into the early morning hours then
become more westerly at less than 10kt Saturday.

KMSP...Mid-level ceilings will rise to SCT clouds in the upper
levels later tonight through most of tomorrow before ceilings
return late Saturday afternoon into the evening. No precipitation
expected. NW winds will back to W during the day Saturday as
speeds drop to 10 kt or less.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR. Chc IFR cigs in mrng. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Slgt chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN...CORRECTED
1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
161745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Area streams and rivers will continue to fluctuate over the next
week. Minor flooding will be possible with recent heavy rainfall
and snow melt. However, freezing temperatures over the weekend
will likely see a reduction in rapid rises. Ice will begin to
break up on rivers and streams, and could lead to ice jam
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.